Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 3, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props

119 lines · Updated Jul 3, 12:12 PM ET

Some parts of this board couldn't be generated (narrative). Everything else on this page reflects the data we could compute.

How we model these edges

Model method:: poisson_per_game
Approximation quality:: Approximate
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.

Total Bases Board

0 of 119 projected

Total Bases prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Adley Rutschman	1.5	+112/ −149	—	—	44%	—	—	—
2	Alex Bregman	1.5	+117/ −156	—	—	43%	—	—	—
3	Andy Pages	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
4	Ben Rice	1.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
5	Blaze Alexander	1.5	+155/ −208	—	—	37%	—	—	—
6	Blaze Jordan	1.5	+142/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
7	Bo Bichette	1.5	+108/ −143	—	—	45%	—	—	—
8	Brandon Lowe	1.5	+138/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
9	Brayan Rocchio	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
10	Brice Turang	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
11	Brooks Lee	1.5	+118/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
12	Bryan Reynolds	1.5	+109/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
13	Bryce Eldridge	1.5	−105/ −127	—	—	48%	—	—	—
14	CJ Abrams	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
15	Cam Smith	1.5	+138/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
16	Carson Benge	1.5	+128/ −170	—	—	41%	—	—	—
17	Casey Schmitt	1.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
18	Ceddanne Rafaela	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
19	Chandler Simpson	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
20	Chase DeLauter	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
21	Christian Walker	1.5	+124/ −166	—	—	42%	—	—	—
22	Christian Yelich	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
23	Cody Bellinger	1.5	−101/ −132	—	—	47%	—	—	—
24	Colby Thomas	1.5	+130/ −173	—	—	41%	—	—	—
25	Cole Carrigg	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
26	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+106/ −140	—	—	45%	—	—	—
27	Curtis Mead	1.5	+134/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
28	Daylen Lile	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
29	Drake Baldwin	1.5	+107/ −142	—	—	45%	—	—	—
30	Drew Cavanaugh	1.5	+140/ −188	—	—	39%	—	—	—
31	Dylan Beavers	1.5	+136/ −181	—	—	40%	—	—	—
32	Dylan Crews	1.5	+129/ −172	—	—	41%	—	—	—
33	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	−103/ −129	—	—	47%	—	—	—
34	Ernie Clement	1.5	+154/ −207	—	—	37%	—	—	—
35	Esmerlyn Valdez	1.5	+120/ −160	—	—	42%	—	—	—
36	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+135/ −180	—	—	40%	—	—	—
37	Francisco Lindor	1.5	+129/ −172	—	—	41%	—	—	—
38	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+134/ −179	—	—	40%	—	—	—
39	Griffin Conine	1.5	+139/ −186	—	—	39%	—	—	—
40	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	−109/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
41	Heliot Ramos	1.5	−114/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
42	Henry Bolte	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
43	Hunter Goodman	1.5	−110/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
44	Ian Happ	1.5	+121/ −161	—	—	42%	—	—	—
45	Ivan Herrera	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
46	JJ Bleday	1.5	+137/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
47	JJ Wetherholt	1.5	+108/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
48	Jackson Chourio	1.5	−114/ −116	—	—	50%	—	—	—
49	Jake Bauers	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
50	Jake Mangum	1.5	+149/ −199	—	—	38%	—	—	—
51	Jake McCarthy	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
52	James Wood	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
53	Jasson Domínguez	1.5	+110/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
54	Javier Sanoja	1.5	+122/ −163	—	—	42%	—	—	—
55	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	1.5	+120/ −160	—	—	42%	—	—	—
56	Jo Adell	1.5	+136/ −182	—	—	40%	—	—	—
57	Jonah Heim	1.5	+147/ −197	—	—	38%	—	—	—
58	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	+110/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
59	Jordan Walker	1.5	−122/ −108	—	—	51%	—	—	—
60	Jose Altuve	1.5	+139/ −186	—	—	39%	—	—	—
61	Jose Fermin	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
62	Josh Bell	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
63	Juan Soto	1.5	+112/ −148	—	—	44%	—	—	—
64	Jung Hoo Lee	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
65	Junior Caminero	1.5	+100/ −133	—	—	47%	—	—	—
66	Keibert Ruiz	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
67	Ketel Marte	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
68	Kody Clemens	1.5	+114/ −151	—	—	44%	—	—	—
69	Konnor Griffin	1.5	+108/ −143	—	—	45%	—	—	—
70	Kyle Karros	1.5	+150/ −202	—	—	37%	—	—	—
71	Kyle Stowers	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
72	Lars Nootbaar	1.5	+144/ −192	—	—	38%	—	—	—
73	Liam Hicks	1.5	+114/ −152	—	—	44%	—	—	—
74	Luis Arraez	1.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
75	Luis Garcia Jr.	1.5	−109/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
76	Masyn Winn	1.5	+126/ −167	—	—	41%	—	—	—
77	Matt Olson	1.5	+116/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
78	Max Muncy (2002)	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
79	Michael Busch	1.5	+113/ −150	—	—	44%	—	—	—
80	Michael Harris II	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
81	Mickey Moniak	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
82	Miguel Vargas	1.5	+127/ −170	—	—	41%	—	—	—
83	Mookie Betts	1.5	+132/ −176	—	—	40%	—	—	—
84	Nathan Lukes	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
85	Nelson Velazquez	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
86	Nick Gonzales	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
87	Nick Kurtz	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
88	Nico Hoerner	1.5	+126/ −168	—	—	41%	—	—	—
89	Otto Lopez	1.5	−120/ −111	—	—	51%	—	—	—
90	Ozzie Albies	1.5	+136/ −182	—	—	40%	—	—	—
91	Paul Goldschmidt	1.5	+108/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
92	Pete Alonso	1.5	−106/ −125	—	—	48%	—	—	—
93	Pete Crow-Armstrong	1.5	−134/ +101	—	—	54%	—	—	—
94	Rafael Devers	1.5	−117/ −114	—	—	50%	—	—	—
95	Ryan O'Hearn	1.5	+140/ −187	—	—	39%	—	—	—
96	Sal Frelick	1.5	+153/ −205	—	—	37%	—	—	—
97	Sal Stewart	1.5	+105/ −140	—	—	46%	—	—	—
98	Sam Antonacci	1.5	+134/ −180	—	—	40%	—	—	—
99	Samuel Basallo	1.5	+111/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
100	Seiya Suzuki	1.5	+116/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—

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