Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 3, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props

119 lines · Updated Aug 17, 6:29 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board has 119 lines priced but zero projections attached, which means the model never ran edge calculations — `top_plays` is empty. There's nothing here to back with confidence. The Poisson bias caveat (edges read low, so real overs shade slightly better than reported) would normally matter, but it's irrelevant when no edges were computed in the first place. Thin slate for now.

How we model these edges

Model method:: poisson_per_game
Approximation quality:: Approximate
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.

Total Bases Board

0 of 119 projected

Total Bases prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Adley Rutschman	1.5	+112/ −149	—	—	44%	—	—	—
2	Alex Bregman	1.5	+117/ −156	—	—	43%	—	—	—
3	Andy Pages	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
4	Ben Rice	1.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
5	Blaze Alexander	1.5	+155/ −208	—	—	37%	—	—	—
6	Blaze Jordan	1.5	+142/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
7	Bo Bichette	1.5	+108/ −143	—	—	45%	—	—	—
8	Brandon Lowe	1.5	+138/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
9	Brayan Rocchio	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
10	Brice Turang	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
11	Brooks Lee	1.5	+118/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
12	Bryan Reynolds	1.5	+109/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
13	Bryce Eldridge	1.5	−105/ −127	—	—	48%	—	—	—
14	CJ Abrams	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
15	Cam Smith	1.5	+138/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
16	Carson Benge	1.5	+128/ −170	—	—	41%	—	—	—
17	Casey Schmitt	1.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
18	Ceddanne Rafaela	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
19	Chandler Simpson	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
20	Chase DeLauter	1.5	+131/ −175	—	—	40%	—	—	—
21	Christian Walker	1.5	+124/ −166	—	—	42%	—	—	—
22	Christian Yelich	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
23	Cody Bellinger	1.5	−101/ −132	—	—	47%	—	—	—
24	Colby Thomas	1.5	+130/ −173	—	—	41%	—	—	—
25	Cole Carrigg	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
26	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+106/ −140	—	—	45%	—	—	—
27	Curtis Mead	1.5	+134/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
28	Daylen Lile	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
29	Drake Baldwin	1.5	+107/ −142	—	—	45%	—	—	—
30	Drew Cavanaugh	1.5	+140/ −188	—	—	39%	—	—	—
31	Dylan Beavers	1.5	+136/ −181	—	—	40%	—	—	—
32	Dylan Crews	1.5	+129/ −172	—	—	41%	—	—	—
33	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	−103/ −129	—	—	47%	—	—	—
34	Ernie Clement	1.5	+154/ −207	—	—	37%	—	—	—
35	Esmerlyn Valdez	1.5	+120/ −160	—	—	42%	—	—	—
36	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+135/ −180	—	—	40%	—	—	—
37	Francisco Lindor	1.5	+129/ −172	—	—	41%	—	—	—
38	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+134/ −179	—	—	40%	—	—	—
39	Griffin Conine	1.5	+139/ −186	—	—	39%	—	—	—
40	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	−109/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
41	Heliot Ramos	1.5	−114/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
42	Henry Bolte	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
43	Hunter Goodman	1.5	−110/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
44	Ian Happ	1.5	+121/ −161	—	—	42%	—	—	—
45	Ivan Herrera	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
46	JJ Bleday	1.5	+137/ −184	—	—	39%	—	—	—
47	JJ Wetherholt	1.5	+108/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
48	Jackson Chourio	1.5	−114/ −116	—	—	50%	—	—	—
49	Jake Bauers	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
50	Jake Mangum	1.5	+149/ −199	—	—	38%	—	—	—
51	Jake McCarthy	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
52	James Wood	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
53	Jasson Domínguez	1.5	+110/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
54	Javier Sanoja	1.5	+122/ −163	—	—	42%	—	—	—
55	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	1.5	+120/ −160	—	—	42%	—	—	—
56	Jo Adell	1.5	+136/ −182	—	—	40%	—	—	—
57	Jonah Heim	1.5	+147/ −197	—	—	38%	—	—	—
58	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	+110/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
59	Jordan Walker	1.5	−122/ −108	—	—	51%	—	—	—
60	Jose Altuve	1.5	+139/ −186	—	—	39%	—	—	—
61	Jose Fermin	1.5	+142/ −190	—	—	39%	—	—	—
62	Josh Bell	1.5	+124/ −165	—	—	42%	—	—	—
63	Juan Soto	1.5	+112/ −148	—	—	44%	—	—	—
64	Jung Hoo Lee	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
65	Junior Caminero	1.5	+100/ −133	—	—	47%	—	—	—
66	Keibert Ruiz	1.5	+141/ −189	—	—	39%	—	—	—
67	Ketel Marte	1.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
68	Kody Clemens	1.5	+114/ −151	—	—	44%	—	—	—
69	Konnor Griffin	1.5	+108/ −143	—	—	45%	—	—	—
70	Kyle Karros	1.5	+150/ −202	—	—	37%	—	—	—
71	Kyle Stowers	1.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
72	Lars Nootbaar	1.5	+144/ −192	—	—	38%	—	—	—
73	Liam Hicks	1.5	+114/ −152	—	—	44%	—	—	—
74	Luis Arraez	1.5	−139/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
75	Luis Garcia Jr.	1.5	−109/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
76	Masyn Winn	1.5	+126/ −167	—	—	41%	—	—	—
77	Matt Olson	1.5	+116/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—
78	Max Muncy (2002)	1.5	+127/ −169	—	—	41%	—	—	—
79	Michael Busch	1.5	+113/ −150	—	—	44%	—	—	—
80	Michael Harris II	1.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
81	Mickey Moniak	1.5	−102/ −130	—	—	47%	—	—	—
82	Miguel Vargas	1.5	+127/ −170	—	—	41%	—	—	—
83	Mookie Betts	1.5	+132/ −176	—	—	40%	—	—	—
84	Nathan Lukes	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
85	Nelson Velazquez	1.5	+119/ −158	—	—	43%	—	—	—
86	Nick Gonzales	1.5	+133/ −178	—	—	40%	—	—	—
87	Nick Kurtz	1.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
88	Nico Hoerner	1.5	+126/ −168	—	—	41%	—	—	—
89	Otto Lopez	1.5	−120/ −111	—	—	51%	—	—	—
90	Ozzie Albies	1.5	+136/ −182	—	—	40%	—	—	—
91	Paul Goldschmidt	1.5	+108/ −144	—	—	45%	—	—	—
92	Pete Alonso	1.5	−106/ −125	—	—	48%	—	—	—
93	Pete Crow-Armstrong	1.5	−134/ +101	—	—	54%	—	—	—
94	Rafael Devers	1.5	−117/ −114	—	—	50%	—	—	—
95	Ryan O'Hearn	1.5	+140/ −187	—	—	39%	—	—	—
96	Sal Frelick	1.5	+153/ −205	—	—	37%	—	—	—
97	Sal Stewart	1.5	+105/ −140	—	—	46%	—	—	—
98	Sam Antonacci	1.5	+134/ −180	—	—	40%	—	—	—
99	Samuel Basallo	1.5	+111/ −147	—	—	44%	—	—	—
100	Seiya Suzuki	1.5	+116/ −154	—	—	43%	—	—	—

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