Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 3, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
24 lines · Updated Jul 3, 12:12 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board has 24 lines but no model projections attached to any of them, so edge calculations are empty across the slate — `top_plays` is blank and every entry is effectively unrated. Without projected strikeout totals driving the Poisson model, there's nothing to separate the interesting lines from the noise. The one methodology note worth keeping: integer lines (any pitcher sitting at exactly 4.0 or 5.0 K) carry a slight over-probability inflation, so treat any near-edge read on those with extra skepticism. Thin board today — nothing here clears a threshold worth acting on.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 24 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Pallante | 3.5 | −149/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Anthony Kay | 4.5 | −152/ +119 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brady Singer | 5.5 | +117/ −150 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Christian Scott | 4.5 | −115/ −111 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Dylan Cease | 7.5 | −130/ +102 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Foster Griffin | 6.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | 6.5 | +122/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Gerrit Cole | 5.5 | −109/ −117 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Grant Holmes | 4.5 | −128/ +101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Perkins | 5.5 | +122/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jake Bennett | 4.5 | −149/ +117 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jose Cabrera | 3.5 | −165/ +129 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Kyle Harrison | 5.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Luis Castillo | 4.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Michael King | 4.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Mike Paredes | 3.5 | +102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Mitch Keller | 3.5 | −153/ +120 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Nick Martinez | 4.5 | +127/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Reid Detmers | 6.5 | −146/ +114 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Ryan Feltner | 3.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Shohei Ohtani | 6.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Spencer Arrighetti | 5.5 | +107/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Trevor Rogers | 5.5 | −103/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Tyler Phillips | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
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