MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

July 3, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

13 games · 25 starters · Updated Jul 3, 12:12 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Ohtani is the obvious anchor — 7.1 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against San Diego with a 1.58 season ERA — but nine days off is a genuine rust flag, not a throwaway caveat. The cleaner pivot is Kyle Harrison, who carries the same 6.2 IP projection and a favorable matchup against Arizona with zero workload flags and a 1.2 projected ER. Foster Griffin (6.9 projected Ks, elite matchup vs. Pittsburgh, 2.93 ERA) and Reid Detmers (6.7 Ks, also elite-rated) round out the most interesting arms on a 25-starter slate that gives you real options at every confidence tier.

#1Shohei Ohtani(RHP)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS
13
IP
79.7
W-L
8-2
ERA
1.58
WHIP
0.90
K/9
9.70
BB/9
2.70
K/BB
3.58

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
7.1
ER
1.5
H
4.9
HR
0.20
BB
1.8
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
20.9
Floor
4.3
Ceiling
37.5
Rest
9d
  • Extended rest (9 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Shohei Ohtani.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-246.05228089W
2026-06-176.07415091W
2026-06-106.763361102
2026-06-036.02016089W
2026-05-276.00147099W

#2Kyle Harrison(RHP)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS
15
IP
77.0
W-L
8-1
ERA
2.57
WHIP
1.03
K/9
11.20
BB/9
2.20
K/BB
5.05

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
6.3
ER
1.2
H
4.7
HR
0.20
BB
1.3
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
20.4
Floor
4.2
Ceiling
36.6
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Kyle Harrison.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.03219192
2026-06-206.34207185
2026-06-146.03003080W
2026-06-025.7412121106W
2026-05-266.04002092W

#3Trevor Rogers(RHP)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Scheduled

GS
15
IP
79.3
W-L
5-7
ERA
4.99
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.90
BB/9
2.70
K/BB
2.54

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
6.2
K
7.0
ER
2.1
H
5.3
HR
0.20
BB
1.3
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.6
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
35.2
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Trevor Rogers.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-266.35107087W
2026-06-207.01026096W
2026-06-146.05224082L
2026-06-095.76313197
2026-06-045.75113087W

#4Reid Detmers(RHP)

Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox

Angel Stadium · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
99.7
W-L
3-5
ERA
3.97
WHIP
1.07
K/9
10.10
BB/9
2.80
K/BB
3.61

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
6.2
K
6.7
ER
1.7
H
5.0
HR
0.30
BB
2.1
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.5
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
35.0
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Reid Detmers.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.74238199
2026-06-216.06544090
2026-06-167.04003090W
2026-06-107.01109189
2026-06-056.02026091

#5Foster Griffin(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
98.3
W-L
8-2
ERA
2.93
WHIP
1.04
K/9
9.00
BB/9
2.30
K/BB
3.92

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
6.2
K
6.9
ER
2.0
H
5.2
HR
0.30
BB
1.7
QS%
80%
Win%
45%
DK pts
19.4
Floor
4.0
Ceiling
34.8
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Foster Griffin.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-277.030290112
2026-06-227.341091105W
2026-06-166.061260100
2026-06-106.061051100
2026-06-055.02104162W

#6Dylan Cease(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park · Scheduled

GS
15
IP
83.3
W-L
4-4
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.24
K/9
13.80
BB/9
4.30
K/BB
3.20

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
6.2
K
6.9
ER
2.6
H
5.6
HR
0.20
BB
3.9
QS%
77%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.7
Floor
3.4
Ceiling
30.0
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Dylan Cease.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.7445100107L
2026-06-225.732480110
2026-06-165.040470108W
2026-06-096.031111093
2026-05-244.74218276L

#7Jake Bennett(RHP)

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels

Angel Stadium · Scheduled

GS
6
IP
33.0
W-L
2-3
ERA
3.27
WHIP
1.06
K/9
6.80
BB/9
1.90
K/BB
3.57

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
5.6
K
5.7
ER
1.8
H
4.7
HR
0.20
BB
2.0
QS%
46%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.2
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
29.1
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Jake Bennett.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-276.33123187W
2026-06-226.04009072
2026-06-175.33205079L
2026-06-105.07414073L
2026-05-075.36421086L

#8Gerrit Cole(RHP)

New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins

Yankee Stadium · Scheduled

GS
7
IP
37.7
W-L
2-3
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.22
K/9
8.10
BB/9
2.40
K/BB
3.40

Projection

Matchup · elite
IP
5.6
K
5.3
ER
1.7
H
4.7
HR
0.30
BB
1.3
QS%
46%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.0
Floor
3.3
Ceiling
28.7
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Gerrit Cole.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.37415289L
2026-06-224.39515189L
2026-06-166.03226190W
2026-06-094.05224083
2026-06-035.36412383L

#9Andre Pallante(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
89.3
W-L
9-5
ERA
3.93
WHIP
1.24
K/9
6.90
BB/9
2.60
K/BB
2.62

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.6
ER
2.4
H
5.1
HR
0.20
BB
1.4
QS%
41%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.9
Floor
3.1
Ceiling
26.7
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andre Pallante.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-276.711514098L
2026-06-226.06102085W
2026-06-167.04206092W
2026-06-106.03225193W
2026-06-035.73125085W

#10Luis Castillo(RHP)

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

T-Mobile Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
76.7
W-L
3-6
ERA
4.93
WHIP
1.34
K/9
8.60
BB/9
3.10
K/BB
2.81

Projection

Matchup · favorable
IP
5.6
K
5.0
ER
2.0
H
4.9
HR
0.40
BB
1.5
QS%
44%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.6
Floor
3.0
Ceiling
26.2
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Luis Castillo.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-266.04114091W
2026-06-194.07404063
2026-06-135.77224184L
2026-06-075.721151100
2026-05-315.02123071W

#11Gavin Williams(RHP)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox

Progressive Field · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
101.7
W-L
9-4
ERA
3.81
WHIP
1.16
K/9
10.40
BB/9
3.00
K/BB
3.44

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.6
K
6.0
ER
2.9
H
5.5
HR
0.20
BB
2.2
QS%
37%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.0
Floor
2.9
Ceiling
25.1
Rest
5d
  • Chicago White Sox has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Gavin Williams.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-285.062360103
2026-06-225.05218095
2026-06-175.07724287L
2026-06-085.04335290
2026-06-035.34316296W

#12Jack Perkins(RHP)

Athletics vs Miami Marlins

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS
22
IP
51.0
W-L
2-3
ERA
6.00
WHIP
1.33
K/9
10.90
BB/9
3.00
K/BB
3.65

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.1
K
5.1
ER
1.9
H
4.5
HR
0.20
BB
1.6
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
14.0
Floor
2.9
Ceiling
25.1
Rest
6d
  • Miami Marlins struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Jack Perkins.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.04215081
2026-06-215.04428178
2026-06-165.06326185
2026-06-104.05334289
2026-06-054.05526175L

#13Grant Holmes(RHP)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Truist Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
77.3
W-L
4-4
ERA
3.96
WHIP
1.36
K/9
8.00
BB/9
4.30
K/BB
1.86

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
5.1
K
5.2
ER
2.6
H
5.0
HR
0.30
BB
1.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
12.7
Floor
2.6
Ceiling
22.8
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Grant Holmes.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.01004047
2026-06-224.73154191L
2026-06-093.74322167
2026-06-036.05224189W
2026-05-294.77315280

#14Nick Martinez(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
94.7
W-L
7-2
ERA
2.66
WHIP
1.15
K/9
5.50
BB/9
1.60
K/BB
3.41

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.4
ER
2.1
H
4.2
HR
0.20
BB
0.7
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
11.6
Floor
2.4
Ceiling
20.8
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Nick Martinez.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-265.76103185W
2026-06-216.04335188
2026-06-155.35316196
2026-06-097.06302073W
2026-06-034.09611258L

#15Mitch Keller(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
94.3
W-L
6-5
ERA
4.87
WHIP
1.30
K/9
7.00
BB/9
3.10
K/BB
2.21

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.3
ER
2.4
H
4.4
HR
0.20
BB
1.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.3
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.5
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Mitch Keller.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-286.05314079W
2026-06-236.07314292L
2026-06-165.34147196
2026-06-114.07543198L
2026-06-054.77634199L

#16Jose Cabrera(RHP)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS
2
IP
10.0
W-L
0-1
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.20
K/9
6.30
BB/9
1.80
K/BB
3.50

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.5
ER
2.5
H
4.5
HR
0.40
BB
1.6
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.3
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.5
Rest
6d
  • low sample

Last 2 Starts

Recent starts for Jose Cabrera.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.07424280L
2026-06-215.03003062

#17Christian Scott(RHP)

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Scheduled

GS
10
IP
45.0
W-L
2-0
ERA
3.20
WHIP
1.33
K/9
10.60
BB/9
4.20
K/BB
2.52

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.8
ER
2.7
H
4.6
HR
0.10
BB
2.0
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
10.2
Floor
2.1
Ceiling
18.3
Rest
6d
  • Atlanta Braves has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Christian Scott.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-274.33226182
2026-06-114.77416388
2026-06-055.73023098W
2026-05-305.05128096W
2026-05-245.74025094

#18David Peterson(RHP)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

Wrigley Field · Scheduled

GS
1
IP
5.7
W-L
1-0
ERA
3.18
WHIP
0.88
K/9
3.20
BB/9
0.00
K/BB
2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.5
K
4.1
ER
2.5
H
4.5
HR
0.10
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
9.7
Floor
2.0
Ceiling
17.4
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for David Peterson.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.75202169W
2026-06-214.06425179L
2026-06-153.02321154
2026-06-103.77621263
2026-05-314.01013051S

#19Brady Singer(RHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles

Great American Ball Park · Scheduled

GS
16
IP
77.3
W-L
3-7
ERA
5.12
WHIP
1.54
K/9
7.60
BB/9
2.90
K/BB
2.60

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
4.1
ER
2.3
H
4.0
HR
0.20
BB
1.1
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
9.1
Floor
1.9
Ceiling
16.3
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Brady Singer.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-284.39506298L
2026-06-227.020270106
2026-06-165.03135091W
2026-06-106.06215095
2026-06-054.04136189L

#20Tyler Phillips(RHP)

Miami Marlins vs Athletics

Sutter Health Park · Scheduled

GS
22
IP
65.7
W-L
1-3
ERA
3.02
WHIP
1.31
K/9
6.90
BB/9
4.10
K/BB
1.67

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.9
ER
2.2
H
3.9
HR
0.20
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.9
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
16.0
Rest
5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Tyler Phillips.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-287.36201197L
2026-06-226.05234189
2026-06-164.06834379L
2026-06-115.02025070W
2026-06-054.77333182

#21Anthony Kay(RHP)

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Progressive Field · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
80.0
W-L
6-3
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.42
K/9
7.30
BB/9
3.50
K/BB
2.10

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.5
ER
1.9
H
3.8
HR
0.20
BB
1.2
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.8
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
15.8
Rest
5d
  • Cleveland Guardians struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Anthony Kay.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-283.77412073L
2026-06-226.030280101
2026-06-174.06412186L
2026-06-125.04217089W
2026-06-054.07624287

#22Mike Paredes(RHP)

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · Scheduled

GS
6
IP
25.3
W-L
0-1
ERA
4.26
WHIP
1.26
K/9
4.60
BB/9
3.20
K/BB
1.44

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.4
H
4.1
HR
0.20
BB
0.4
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
8.7
Floor
1.8
Ceiling
15.6
Rest
6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Mike Paredes.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-275.38302274L
2026-06-215.06231075
2026-06-154.74202159
2026-06-103.01124058
2026-06-043.72311150

#23Spencer Arrighetti(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS
12
IP
66.0
W-L
6-4
ERA
4.23
WHIP
1.33
K/9
9.80
BB/9
4.90
K/BB
2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.3
H
4.0
HR
0.30
BB
2.3
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
7.8
Floor
1.6
Ceiling
14.0
Rest
7d
  • Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Spencer Arrighetti.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-263.05857393L
2026-06-206.06608390L
2026-06-146.084170101L
2026-06-086.04347095
2026-06-034.06413183

#24Michael King(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Scheduled

GS
17
IP
96.3
W-L
5-7
ERA
3.55
WHIP
1.18
K/9
7.80
BB/9
3.60
K/BB
2.13

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
3.9
K
3.8
ER
2.6
H
4.2
HR
0.20
BB
1.8
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
7.4
Floor
1.5
Ceiling
13.3
Rest
5d
  • Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has a 0.347 xwOBA vs RHP — tough matchup

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael King.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-06-284.33445090L
2026-06-227.06005093W
2026-06-164.35331093L
2026-06-106.773332106
2026-06-056.06404293L

#25Ryan Feltner(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants

Coors Field · Scheduled

GS
11
IP
53.0
W-L
2-2
ERA
4.42
WHIP
1.25
K/9
5.90
BB/9
3.40
K/BB
1.75

Projection

Projection unavailable for this start.

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

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