Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 3, 2026 MLB Hits Props

234 lines · Updated Jul 3, 12:12 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

The board is thin today — 234 lines priced, zero top plays surfaced, and no projections attached to any entry. Without projections, the edge calculation collapses to model probability versus no-vig implied probability alone, and nothing cleared the threshold. Worth noting that the methodology flags a high bias direction, meaning any overs that did show positive edge would already be running hot and deserve extra skepticism. Nothing here to act on right now.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

0 of 234 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	A.J. Ewing	0.5	−192/ +143	—	—	62%	—	—	—
2	Adley Rutschman	0.5	−260/ +191	—	—	68%	—	—	—
3	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	−208/ +155	—	—	63%	—	—	—
4	Alex Bregman	0.5	−266/ +196	—	—	68%	—	—	—
5	Alika Williams	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
6	Andres Gimenez	0.5	−136/ +103	—	—	54%	—	—	—
7	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	−171/ +129	—	—	59%	—	—	—
8	Andy Pages	0.5	−243/ +180	—	—	66%	—	—	—
9	Anthony Seigler	0.5	−136/ +102	—	—	54%	—	—	—
10	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−185/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
11	Austin Hedges	0.5	−134/ +101	—	—	54%	—	—	—
12	Austin Riley	0.5	−155/ +117	—	—	57%	—	—	—
13	Austin Wells	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
14	Ben Rice	1.5	+173/ −233	—	—	34%	—	—	—
15	Blaze Alexander	0.5	−219/ +162	—	—	64%	—	—	—
16	Blaze Jordan	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
17	Bo Bichette	1.5	+189/ −257	—	—	32%	—	—	—
18	Braden Montgomery	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
19	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—
20	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	−247/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
21	Brett Baty	0.5	−137/ +103	—	—	54%	—	—	—
22	Brice Turang	0.5	−252/ +186	—	—	67%	—	—	—
23	Brooks Lee	0.5	−228/ +169	—	—	65%	—	—	—
24	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−255/ +188	—	—	67%	—	—	—
25	Bryce Eldridge	1.5	+185/ −251	—	—	33%	—	—	—
26	CJ Abrams	0.5	−278/ +204	—	—	69%	—	—	—
27	Cal Raleigh	0.5	−120/ −110	—	—	51%	—	—	—
28	Caleb Durbin	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
29	Cam Smith	0.5	−213/ +158	—	—	64%	—	—	—
30	Carson Benge	0.5	−238/ +176	—	—	66%	—	—	—
31	Casey Schmitt	1.5	+128/ −171	—	—	41%	—	—	—
32	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	−224/ +166	—	—	65%	—	—	—
33	Cedric Mullins	0.5	−151/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
34	Chandler Simpson	0.5	−257/ +190	—	—	68%	—	—	—
35	Chase DeLauter	0.5	−246/ +181	—	—	67%	—	—	—
36	Chase Meidroth	0.5	−167/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
37	Christian Walker	0.5	−202/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
38	Christian Yelich	0.5	−248/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
39	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−272/ +200	—	—	69%	—	—	—
40	Colby Thomas	0.5	−195/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
41	Cole Carrigg	0.5	−245/ +181	—	—	67%	—	—	—
42	Cole Young	0.5	−127/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
43	Colson Montgomery	0.5	−131/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
44	Colt Emerson	0.5	+104/ −138	—	—	46%	—	—	—
45	Colton Cowser	0.5	−162/ +122	—	—	58%	—	—	—
46	Connor Wong	0.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
47	Cooper Pratt	0.5	−163/ +122	—	—	58%	—	—	—
48	Corbin Carroll	0.5	−233/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
49	Curtis Mead	0.5	−226/ +168	—	—	65%	—	—	—
50	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−130/ −102	—	—	53%	—	—	—
51	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−179/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
52	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−190/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
53	David Fry	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
54	David Hamilton	0.5	−145/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
55	Daylen Lile	1.5	+204/ −278	—	—	31%	—	—	—
56	Denzer Guzman	0.5	−203/ +152	—	—	63%	—	—	—
57	Dominic Canzone	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
58	Dominic Smith	0.5	−180/ +135	—	—	60%	—	—	—
59	Drake Baldwin	0.5	−253/ +186	—	—	67%	—	—	—
60	Drew Cavanaugh	0.5	−216/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
61	Dylan Beavers	0.5	−195/ +145	—	—	62%	—	—	—
62	Dylan Crews	0.5	−233/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
63	Edwin Arroyo	0.5	−161/ +121	—	—	58%	—	—	—
64	Elly De La Cruz	1.5	+201/ −274	—	—	31%	—	—	—
65	Ernie Clement	0.5	−228/ +169	—	—	65%	—	—	—
66	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	−219/ +162	—	—	64%	—	—	—
67	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−178/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—
68	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−191/ +143	—	—	61%	—	—	—
69	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	−209/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
70	Francisco Alvarez	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
71	Francisco Lindor	0.5	−209/ +155	—	—	63%	—	—	—
72	Freddie Freeman	0.5	−209/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
73	Gabriel Arias	0.5	−162/ +122	—	—	58%	—	—	—
74	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	−173/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
75	Garrett Mitchell	0.5	−175/ +131	—	—	60%	—	—	—
76	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−114/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
77	Geraldo Perdomo	0.5	−203/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
78	Griffin Conine	0.5	−192/ +143	—	—	62%	—	—	—
79	Gunnar Henderson	1.5	+181/ −245	—	—	33%	—	—	—
80	Heliot Ramos	1.5	+160/ −215	—	—	36%	—	—	—
81	Henry Bolte	1.5	+168/ −227	—	—	35%	—	—	—
82	Henry Davis	0.5	−129/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
83	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	+112/ −148	—	—	44%	—	—	—
84	Hunter Goodman	1.5	+192/ −261	—	—	32%	—	—	—
85	Ian Happ	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
86	Ildemaro Vargas	0.5	−166/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
87	Isaac Paredes	0.5	−189/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
88	Ivan Herrera	1.5	+164/ −221	—	—	35%	—	—	—
89	J.P. Crawford	0.5	−144/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
90	JJ Bleday	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—
91	JJ Wetherholt	1.5	+188/ −256	—	—	33%	—	—	—
92	Jackson Chourio	1.5	+154/ −207	—	—	37%	—	—	—
93	Jackson Holliday	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
94	Jackson Merrill	0.5	−148/ +111	—	—	56%	—	—	—
95	Jacob Gonzalez	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
96	Jacob Young	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
97	Jake Bauers	0.5	−197/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
98	Jake Cronenworth	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
99	Jake Mangum	0.5	−254/ +187	—	—	67%	—	—	—
100	Jake McCarthy	1.5	+168/ −226	—	—	35%	—	—	—

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