The Almanac · College Football
College football, by the week.
Scores with the win-probability story, power ratings computed here from final scores rather than republished from anyone else, and the betting market graded against what actually happened — all of it from open data.
This week's boards
Updated weeklyEvery game's final with the win-probability story behind it — the biggest swing play, a drama index, and conference standings that stay correct through realignment.
Two independent systems side by side: a schedule-adjusted SRS and a margin-aware Elo, with strength of schedule, conference strength, and next week's projected margins.
Consensus spreads, totals and moneylines across every book that posted one, each graded against the final score — with our own model line beside the market's.
What's behind it
The ratings here are computed from final scores, not licensed from a third party — which is why they can be published at all, and why their validation is on the page rather than in a brochure. Walked forward on 3,867 held-out games, the schedule-adjusted rating predicts a game's margin to 12.7 points of mean absolute error against 13.5 without the adjustment. The betting market predicts the same games better, at 12.1, and the ratings board says so. Nothing here is betting advice.
Every game, every week,
traced back to the data.
Free to read. No account needed.