Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 1, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
133 lines · 8 projected · Updated Jul 1, 3:15 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Miguel Vargas is the standout here — 25.69% edge on the over 1.5, with the model projecting 2.67 total bases and a 74.6% hit rate. That's a wide gap, and since the Poisson methodology runs biased low on overs, the real number is likely a tick better still. Andrew Benintendi adds a second high-confidence over at 14.88% edge, projecting 2.0 TB against the same 1.5 line. On the other side, Chase Meidroth's under carries a 9.99% edge with a projection of just 1.0 TB. Only 8 of 133 lines have projections attached, so the board is sparse beyond these four names.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
8 of 133 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | 2.67 | 75% | 49% | +25.7 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | 2.00 | 59% | 45% | +14.9 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | 1.83 | 55% | 46% | +8.9 pp | Over | High |
| 4 | Braden Montgomery Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | 1.54 | 46% | 41% | +4.4 pp | Over | Low |
| 5 | Jacob Gonzalez Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | 1.46 | 43% | 40% | +2.5 pp | Over | Med |
| 6 | Tristan Peters Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | 1.30 | 37% | 39% | −2.0 pp | Under | High |
| 7 | Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | 1.19 | 33% | 40% | −6.5 pp | Under | High |
| 8 | Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +157/ −212 | 1.00 | 26% | 36% | −10.0 pp | Under | High |
| 9 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +101/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −102/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Austin Riley | 1.5 | +137/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −114/ −116 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Blaze Alexander | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | −145/ +109 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Bryce Eldridge | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 23 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Caleb Durbin | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Carson Kelly | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Carter Jensen | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Cedric Mullins | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | −105/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Cole Carrigg | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −124/ −107 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Curtis Mead | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Dalton Rushing | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Dansby Swanson | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Dylan Crews | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Esteury Ruiz | 1.5 | +101/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Ezequiel Duran | 1.5 | +148/ −199 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | −153/ +115 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Francisco Lindor | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | −108/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +141/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Gavin Sheets | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 52 | George Springer | 1.5 | +129/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Heliot Ramos | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Henry Bolte | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Heriberto Hernandez | 1.5 | −122/ −108 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −112/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Ian Happ | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +134/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 61 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | −110/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | −133/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Jake Burger | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Jake Cronenworth | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Jakob Marsee | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 69 | James Wood | 1.5 | −118/ −113 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Jarren Duran | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Jasson Domínguez | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Javier Sanoja | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1.5 | +106/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Joe Mack | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | −119/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Jose Altuve | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | −106/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | −152/ +115 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +108/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Kyle Stowers | 1.5 | −131/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Lane Thomas | 1.5 | +147/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Liam Hicks | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | −122/ −109 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | −114/ −116 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +102/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +158/ −212 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +100/ −132 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Michael Busch | 1.5 | −103/ −128 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
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