Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 1, 2026 MLB Hits Props

251 lines · 18 projected · Updated Jul 1, 3:14 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Gabriel Arias leads the board at an 11.5% edge over 0.5 hits, with the model at 62.7% over probability — but confidence is flagged low, so treat it as a lean, not a conviction bet. Austin Hedges is the cleaner version of the same bet: 10.0% edge, 58.3% over prob, medium confidence, same 0.5 line. Worth noting the model runs hot on overs (bias direction is high), which trims both reads slightly. On the under side, Rhys Hoskins at –4.1% edge and a 0.73 projection against a 0.5 line is the sharpest fade, with Hoskins sitting well below a hit per game in the model.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

18 of 251 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Gabriel Arias Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−121/ −109	0.98	63%	51%	+11.5 pp	Over	Low
2	Austin Hedges Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−107/ −124	0.84	58%	48%	+10.0 pp	Over	Med
3	Kahlil Watson Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−160/ +120	1.00	62%	58%	+4.7 pp	Over	Low
4	Jacob Gonzalez Chicago White Sox	0.5	−206/ +153	0.97	65%	63%	+1.7 pp	Over	Med
5	Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox	1.5	+189/ −257	1.15	33%	32%	+0.2 pp	Over	High
6	Daniel Schneemann Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−129/ −103	0.72	52%	53%	−0.9 pp	Under	High
7	Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox	0.5	−244/ +180	1.01	65%	67%	−1.1 pp	Under	High
8	Tristan Peters Chicago White Sox	0.5	−208/ +155	0.94	61%	63%	−2.0 pp	Under	High
9	David Fry Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−148/ +111	0.75	53%	56%	−2.3 pp	Under	Med
10	Rhys Hoskins Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−133/ +100	0.73	49%	53%	−4.1 pp	Under	Med
11	Kyle Manzardo Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−172/ +129	0.76	54%	59%	−4.8 pp	Under	High
12	Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox	1.5	+173/ −233	1.08	29%	34%	−5.5 pp	Under	High
13	Chase DeLauter Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−240/ +178	0.89	61%	66%	−5.5 pp	Under	High
14	Braden Montgomery Chicago White Sox	0.5	−221/ +164	0.87	59%	65%	−5.9 pp	Under	Low
15	Brayan Rocchio Cleveland Guardians	0.5	−205/ +153	0.77	56%	63%	−7.0 pp	Under	High
16	Luisangel Acuna Chicago White Sox	0.5	−173/ +130	0.74	49%	59%	−10.0 pp	Under	Med
17	Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox	0.5	−219/ +162	0.74	50%	64%	−14.8 pp	Under	High
18	Drew Romo Chicago White Sox	0.5	−170/ +128	0.32	27%	59%	−31.5 pp	Under	Med
19	A.J. Ewing	0.5	−205/ +153	—	—	63%	—	—	—
20	Adley Rutschman	1.5	+181/ −245	—	—	33%	—	—	—
21	Alec Bohm	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
22	Alec Burleson	0.5	−246/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
23	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	−185/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
24	Alejandro Osuna	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
25	Alex Bregman	1.5	+182/ −247	—	—	33%	—	—	—
26	Alex Freeland	0.5	−131/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
27	Alika Williams	0.5	−131/ −102	—	—	53%	—	—	—
28	Andres Gimenez	0.5	−125/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
29	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	−169/ +127	—	—	59%	—	—	—
30	Andrés Chaparro	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
31	Andy Pages	1.5	+185/ −251	—	—	33%	—	—	—
32	Anthony Volpe	0.5	−171/ +128	—	—	59%	—	—	—
33	Austin Riley	0.5	−201/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
34	Austin Wells	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
35	Ben Rice	1.5	+191/ −259	—	—	32%	—	—	—
36	Blake Perkins	0.5	−150/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
37	Blaze Alexander	0.5	−226/ +168	—	—	65%	—	—	—
38	Blaze Jordan	0.5	−188/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
39	Bo Bichette	1.5	+154/ −207	—	—	37%	—	—	—
40	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	+134/ −179	—	—	40%	—	—	—
41	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−193/ +144	—	—	62%	—	—	—
42	Brandon Marsh	0.5	−184/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
43	Brett Baty	0.5	−147/ +111	—	—	56%	—	—	—
44	Brice Turang	0.5	−199/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
45	Brooks Lee	0.5	−210/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
46	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
47	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	−230/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
48	Bryce Harper	0.5	−190/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
49	Bryson Stott	0.5	−170/ +127	—	—	59%	—	—	—
50	CJ Abrams	1.5	+194/ −264	—	—	32%	—	—	—
51	Caleb Durbin	0.5	−246/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
52	Cam Smith	0.5	−167/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
53	Cameron Cauley	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
54	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	−145/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
55	Carson Benge	0.5	−247/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
56	Carson Kelly	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
57	Carter Jensen	0.5	−201/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
58	Casey Schmitt	0.5	−260/ +192	—	—	68%	—	—	—
59	Ceddanne Rafaela	1.5	+192/ −261	—	—	32%	—	—	—
60	Cedric Mullins	0.5	−220/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
61	Chandler Simpson	1.5	+140/ −187	—	—	39%	—	—	—
62	Christian Walker	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
63	Christian Yelich	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
64	Coby Mayo	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
65	Cody Bellinger	0.5	−265/ +195	—	—	68%	—	—	—
66	Colby Thomas	0.5	−174/ +131	—	—	59%	—	—	—
67	Cole Carrigg	0.5	−241/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
68	Colt Keith	0.5	−167/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
69	Cooper Pratt	0.5	−157/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
70	Corbin Carroll	1.5	+166/ −223	—	—	35%	—	—	—
71	Curtis Mead	0.5	−229/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
72	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−187/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
73	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−196/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
74	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−166/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
75	Daylen Lile	0.5	−255/ +188	—	—	67%	—	—	—
76	Dillon Dingler	0.5	−239/ +177	—	—	66%	—	—	—
77	Dominic Smith	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
78	Drake Baldwin	0.5	−274/ +201	—	—	69%	—	—	—
79	Drew Cavanaugh	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
80	Drew Gilbert	0.5	−183/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
81	Dylan Crews	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
82	Edwin Arroyo	0.5	−152/ +115	—	—	56%	—	—	—
83	Elly De La Cruz	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
84	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
85	Ernie Clement	0.5	−234/ +173	—	—	66%	—	—	—
86	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	−128/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
87	Esteury Ruiz	1.5	+180/ −244	—	—	33%	—	—	—
88	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−143/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
89	Evan Carter	0.5	−109/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
90	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	−206/ +154	—	—	63%	—	—	—
91	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−165/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
92	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+115/ −153	—	—	43%	—	—	—
93	Francisco Alvarez	0.5	−164/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
94	Francisco Lindor	0.5	−248/ +183	—	—	67%	—	—	—
95	Freddie Freeman	1.5	+178/ −240	—	—	34%	—	—	—
96	Freddy Fermin	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
97	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	−247/ +182	—	—	67%	—	—	—
98	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0.5	−110/ −120	—	—	49%	—	—	—
99	Gary Sanchez	0.5	−165/ +124	—	—	58%	—	—	—
100	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−263/ +194	—	—	68%	—	—	—

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