Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 3, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
70 lines · Updated Aug 3, 3:43 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 70 lines priced but no projections loaded and no edges surfaced. With `num_with_projection` at zero, there's nothing for the model to push against the market, so `top_plays` is empty across the slate. Worth noting the standing methodology caveat: Poisson tail compression means any over edges that did exist would read slightly conservative, so the real picture on overs is a hair better than reported. Nothing actionable here right now.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 70 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +128/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +145/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bryce Eldridge | 1.5 | +119/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Bryson Stott | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 12 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Cedric Mullins | 1.5 | −125/ −106 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Cole Carrigg | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Daulton Varsho | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Dylan Crews | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | −123/ −108 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Heliot Ramos | 1.5 | +126/ −167 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Isaac Paredes | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 29 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Jake Cronenworth | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Jake Mangum | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | −105/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 35 | James Wood | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Jasson Domínguez | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | −101/ −132 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Joc Pederson | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | −156/ +117 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | −161/ +121 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Keibert Ruiz | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Kyle Karros | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +107/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +137/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Rafael Devers | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Richie Palacios | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Shohei Ohtani | 1.5 | +118/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 54 | TJ Rumfield | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Taylor Walls | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Tommy Edman | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Trea Turner | 1.5 | −103/ −129 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Ty France | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Tyler Freeman | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Victor Mesa Jr. | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Willi Castro | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 65 | William Contreras | 1.5 | +137/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Wyatt Langford | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Xander Bogaerts | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Yainer Diaz | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Yandy Diaz | 1.5 | −174/ +130 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Yordan Alvarez | 1.5 | −115/ −116 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
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