MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

August 3, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

8 games · 15 starters · Updated Aug 3, 3:46 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Schlittler is the cleanest arm on the board — 6.4 projected Ks over 6.2 innings against St. Louis with a 1.8 projected ER and a 2.04 season ERA that gives the favorable matchup real teeth. Seymour deserves equal attention: 6.6 projected Ks in 6.2 innings against Colorado, and while the 4.37 season ERA looks rough, the projection model likes this spot with high confidence. Bubba Chandler against Milwaukee offers 6.1 Ks over 6.2 projected innings at 2.7 projected ER — slightly softer floor but still a favorable draw. Javier carries a rust flag after seven days of extended rest, which drops him to medium confidence despite a reasonable line.

#1Cam Schlittler(RHP)

New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals

Yankee Stadium · Pre-Game

GS: 23
IP: 136.7
W-L: 10-6
ERA: 2.04
WHIP: 0.91
K/9: 10.90
BB/9: 1.70
K/BB: 6.35

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.4
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.1
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 34.3
Rest: 5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Cam Schlittler.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-29	6.3	2	1	1	8	0	93	—
2026-07-24	7.3	3	0	0	12	0	99	W
2026-07-19	4.3	6	3	0	8	0	98	L
2026-07-11	6.7	4	2	4	6	2	99	—
2026-07-06	8.0	4	1	0	8	0	101	W

#2Ian Seymour(RHP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies

Coors Field · Scheduled

GS: 36
IP: 78.3
W-L: 7-3
ERA: 4.37
WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 3.20
K/BB: 3.21

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 1.9
H: 5.2
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.0
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 34.1
Rest: 5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Ian Seymour.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-29	4.7	2	0	1	4	0	71	W
2026-07-23	6.0	5	2	1	7	0	87	L
2026-07-18	3.0	2	3	2	4	2	61	—
2026-07-12	3.3	6	5	3	3	1	78	L
2026-07-07	5.3	5	3	0	12	1	94	W

#3Bubba Chandler(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers

American Family Field · Scheduled

GS: 21
IP: 104.7
W-L: 3-8
ERA: 4.64
WHIP: 1.41
K/9: 8.00
BB/9: 4.90
K/BB: 1.63

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.1
ER: 2.7
H: 5.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 2.2
QS%: 76%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.8
Floor: 3.3
Ceiling: 28.3
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Bubba Chandler.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-28	4.0	8	4	1	3	0	91	—
2026-07-22	6.3	2	0	1	5	0	84	—
2026-07-11	4.7	5	2	3	6	0	97	—
2026-07-05	4.0	6	4	4	0	1	86	—
2026-06-30	6.3	7	5	2	6	0	97	L

#4Logan Webb(RHP)

San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers

Globe Life Field · Scheduled

GS: 18
IP: 114.0
W-L: 6-6
ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.08
K/9: 6.80
BB/9: 2.30
K/BB: 2.97

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.7
ER: 2.3
H: 5.1
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.4
QS%: 41%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.3
Floor: 3.2
Ceiling: 27.4
Rest: 5d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Logan Webb.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-29	6.0	5	2	1	4	0	96	W
2026-07-24	6.0	6	4	2	4	0	99	—
2026-07-18	6.7	2	3	1	5	1	100	—
2026-07-08	7.0	5	5	2	2	1	106	L
2026-07-03	3.0	11	7	2	2	2	76	L

#5Brandon Pfaadt(RHP)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS: 19
IP: 72.0
W-L: 5-1
ERA: 4.25
WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 6.10
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 2.33

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.3
ER: 2.2
H: 5.0
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.1
QS%: 42%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.0
Floor: 3.1
Ceiling: 26.9
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Brandon Pfaadt.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	P	Dec
2026-07-28	7.0	6	0	1	4	101	—
2026-07-23	6.0	7	2	2	1	87	W
2026-07-18	5.3	6	2	0	3	87	W
2026-07-11	5.3	6	2	0	2	77	W
2026-07-06	5.0	4	0	0	6	72	W

#6Cristian Javier(RHP)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS: 8
IP: 21.3
W-L: 1-1
ERA: 7.17
WHIP: 1.83
K/9: 8.90
BB/9: 6.30
K/BB: 1.40

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 5.3
ER: 2.0
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 2.4
QS%: 44%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 14.6
Floor: 3.0
Ceiling: 26.2
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Cristian Javier.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-27	5.0	3	0	0	7	0	70	W
2026-07-12	3.0	4	3	3	4	0	60	—
2026-04-03	3.7	6	6	5	2	0	82	L
2026-03-28	4.7	4	6	4	1	2	74	—

#7Matthew Boyd(RHP)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Wrigley Field · Scheduled

GS: 12
IP: 66.0
W-L: 6-1
ERA: 3.41
WHIP: 1.20
K/9: 8.20
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 3.16

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.6
K: 5.4
ER: 2.9
H: 5.5
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.6
QS%: 37%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.2
Floor: 2.7
Ceiling: 23.7
Rest: 5d

Los Angeles Dodgers has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Matthew Boyd.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-29	7.0	4	0	2	5	0	89	—
2026-07-24	7.0	7	1	3	4	0	97	—
2026-07-18	6.0	3	1	1	4	1	91	W
2026-07-12	6.3	6	4	1	3	1	92	W
2026-07-07	6.0	3	0	2	7	0	93	W

#8Aaron Nola(RHP)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals

Citizens Bank Park · Pre-Game

GS: 22
IP: 114.0
W-L: 3-9
ERA: 5.61
WHIP: 1.45
K/9: 9.20
BB/9: 3.10
K/BB: 2.97

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.2
ER: 2.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.1
Floor: 2.7
Ceiling: 23.5
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Aaron Nola.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-28	5.7	5	1	3	4	1	93	L
2026-07-22	5.3	7	5	1	4	2	85	L
2026-07-16	6.0	6	3	4	6	3	97	L
2026-07-10	5.0	3	2	2	8	1	84	—
2026-07-05	7.0	7	3	0	7	0	98	L

#9Michael King(RHP)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field · Scheduled

GS: 22
IP: 125.3
W-L: 6-7
ERA: 3.37
WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 7.80
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.18

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.0
ER: 2.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 2.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.4
Floor: 2.6
Ceiling: 22.2
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael King.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-28	6.0	6	4	1	6	2	98	—
2026-07-22	6.0	5	1	4	7	0	104	—
2026-07-17	5.0	4	1	2	4	1	97	—
2026-07-08	6.0	4	1	2	4	0	92	W
2026-07-03	6.0	3	2	2	5	0	75	—

#10Cal Quantrill(RHP)

Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants

Globe Life Field · Scheduled

GS: 21
IP: 56.7
W-L: 4-3
ERA: 3.97
WHIP: 1.25
K/9: 6.00
BB/9: 2.90
K/BB: 2.11

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 4.5
ER: 2.4
H: 4.8
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.7
Floor: 2.4
Ceiling: 21.0
Rest: 6d

San Francisco Giants has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Cal Quantrill.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-28	5.3	2	1	1	7	0	69	W
2026-07-22	3.0	2	2	3	1	0	55	L
2026-07-17	4.0	11	6	1	3	2	86	L
2026-07-10	6.0	5	1	1	1	1	79	—
2026-07-04	5.0	3	2	1	2	1	66	L

#11Andrew Alvarez(RHP)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Pre-Game

GS: 15
IP: 57.7
W-L: 2-3
ERA: 4.06
WHIP: 1.49
K/9: 9.10
BB/9: 4.40
K/BB: 2.07

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.4
H: 4.4
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.9
Floor: 2.0
Ceiling: 17.8
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andrew Alvarez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	P	Dec
2026-07-27	4.3	4	1	3	3	80	—
2026-07-20	4.3	6	3	3	2	74	—
2026-07-07	5.7	4	5	5	3	97	L
2026-07-01	4.7	2	0	1	6	74	W
2026-06-26	4.3	6	2	3	5	88	L

#12Michael McGreevy(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · Pre-Game

GS: 21
IP: 116.0
W-L: 4-9
ERA: 3.57
WHIP: 1.20
K/9: 5.90
BB/9: 2.20
K/BB: 2.62

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 4.0
ER: 2.1
H: 3.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.3
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.7
Rest: 11d

Extended rest (11 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael McGreevy.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-23	6.3	7	4	3	3	1	95	L
2026-07-17	6.3	6	1	1	5	1	94	—
2026-07-08	6.3	5	1	1	6	0	90	W
2026-07-01	6.0	3	2	1	3	1	87	L
2026-06-26	6.0	5	0	1	4	0	94	—

#13Brandon Sproat(RHP)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

American Family Field · Scheduled

GS: 20
IP: 92.7
W-L: 3-6
ERA: 5.05
WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.50
K/BB: 2.09

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.1
H: 3.9
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.7
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.6
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Brandon Sproat.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-27	6.0	6	3	3	5	1	97	L
2026-07-21	4.7	4	2	4	4	1	99	L
2026-07-11	3.0	2	2	2	3	1	83	—
2026-07-05	4.0	5	1	3	4	0	92	—
2026-06-30	5.3	4	2	2	7	1	106	W

#14Michael Lorenzen(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays

Coors Field · Scheduled

GS: 23
IP: 104.7
W-L: 3-9
ERA: 6.71
WHIP: 1.81
K/9: 6.90
BB/9: 3.40
K/BB: 2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.5
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.6
Floor: 1.8
Ceiling: 15.4
Rest: 6d

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael Lorenzen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-28	4.0	8	3	1	2	0	93	—
2026-07-21	3.7	7	6	1	5	2	80	—
2026-07-12	5.0	5	1	3	1	0	79	—
2026-07-07	6.0	6	2	3	5	1	95	—
2026-07-02	4.3	4	4	6	1	0	95	—

#15Shane Bieber(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros

Daikin Park · Scheduled

GS: 7
IP: 31.3
W-L: 2-2
ERA: 5.74
WHIP: 1.63
K/9: 6.30
BB/9: 5.20
K/BB: 1.22

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.3
H: 4.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 2.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.2
Floor: 1.7
Ceiling: 14.7
Rest: 11d

Extended rest (11 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Shane Bieber.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-07-23	7.0	3	1	0	3	0	86	W
2026-07-18	6.0	3	0	2	6	0	80	W
2026-07-10	4.7	6	2	3	4	1	97	—
2026-07-04	4.0	6	7	3	3	2	89	L
2026-06-28	5.3	5	2	4	4	1	92	—

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