Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 3, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
13 lines · Updated Aug 3, 3:38 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 13 lines in, zero projections loaded, and no top plays surfaced. Without model probabilities to compare against the no-vig implied odds, there's no edge to report; every entry is effectively ungraded. The methodology is neutral-biased and Poisson-based, so when numbers do populate, integer lines (like a flat 7.0) will read slightly generous to overs versus how DraftKings actually grades pushes — worth keeping in mind for any whole-number strikeout totals. For now, the K board has nothing to act on.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 13 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Nola | 5.5 | +107/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Brandon Pfaadt | 4.5 | +134/ −172 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brandon Sproat | 5.5 | −109/ −117 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Bubba Chandler | 4.5 | −139/ +109 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Cam Schlittler | 6.5 | −140/ +110 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Cristian Javier | 3.5 | −137/ +107 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Ian Seymour | 4.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Logan Webb | 4.5 | −150/ +117 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Matthew Boyd | 4.5 | −141/ +111 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Michael King | 4.5 | −103/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.5 | +136/ −174 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Michael McGreevy | 4.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Shane Bieber | 4.5 | +134/ −172 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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