Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 2, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
18 lines · 1 projected · Updated Aug 9, 9:35 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Coverage here is thin — only 1 of 18 lines carries a projection, so treat this as a one-player board. Jared Jones is the lone play: 4.5 Ks, model projection of 5.1, with a 0.95-point edge built from a 57.7% over probability against the no-vig implied. Methodology is neutral bias and Poisson-based, which is reasonable for mid-range strikeout totals like this; no systematic inflation to flag. Medium confidence, but the edge is clean and unambiguous. Everything else on the board is flying without model coverage.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 18 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Jones Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | −151/ +118 | 5.1 | 58% | 57% | +0.9 pp | Over | Med |
| 2 | Alan Rangel | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Bryce Miller | 6.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Chase Burns | 7.5 | +110/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Davis Martin | 4.5 | −137/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Dustin May | 4.5 | −101/ −126 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Framber Valdez | 5.5 | +116/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Hurston Waldrep | 3.5 | −101/ −126 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ian Seymour | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jacob Misiorowski | 9.5 | +100/ −128 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.5 | −153/ +120 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Nathan Eovaldi | 6.5 | −128/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Randy Vasquez | 3.5 | +127/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Roki Sasaki | 5.5 | +124/ −159 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Ryan Gusto | 3.5 | −139/ +109 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Slade Cecconi | 4.5 | +111/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Stephen Kolek | 3.5 | +139/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Walbert Urena | 4.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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