Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

July 2, 2026 MLB Hits Props

162 lines · 9 projected · Updated Jul 3, 9:27 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Harper is the loudest signal on the board — 73.5% model probability against an implied number sitting 4.79 points lower, with a 1.31 projection on a 0.5 line. Worth noting the model carries a high bias direction, meaning overs generally run warm, so that gap deserves a small haircut. Even trimmed, it holds up. Marsh layers in nicely at 68.2% and a 1.72-point edge. On the other side, Alec Bohm's over is priced well above his 60.9% model prob, making the under at 0.5 the sharpest fade on the board at 6.61 points of edge.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

9 of 162 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−273/ +200	1.31	74%	69%	+4.8 pp	Over	High
2	Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−243/ +180	1.23	68%	66%	+1.7 pp	Over	High
3	Rafael Marchan Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−175/ +131	0.90	61%	60%	+1.4 pp	Over	Med
4	Bryson Stott Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−222/ +165	1.05	65%	65%	+0.8 pp	Over	High
5	Justin Crawford Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−166/ +125	0.91	59%	58%	+0.7 pp	Over	High
6	Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−217/ +162	1.05	64%	64%	0.0 pp	Over	High
7	Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies	1.5	+165/ −222	1.01	30%	35%	−5.7 pp	Under	High
8	Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−256/ +189	0.98	61%	68%	−6.6 pp	Under	High
9	Gabriel Rincones Jr. Philadelphia Phillies	0.5	−152/ +114	0.64	48%	56%	−8.3 pp	Under	Low
10	Alec Burleson	0.5	−257/ +189	—	—	68%	—	—	—
11	Alejandro Osuna	0.5	−149/ +112	—	—	56%	—	—	—
12	Alex Freeland	0.5	−108/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
13	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	−188/ +141	—	—	61%	—	—	—
14	Andy Pages	1.5	+200/ −273	—	—	31%	—	—	—
15	Austin Riley	0.5	−181/ +135	—	—	60%	—	—	—
16	Blaze Jordan	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
17	Bobby Witt Jr.	1.5	+132/ −176	—	—	40%	—	—	—
18	Braden Montgomery	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
19	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−263/ +194	—	—	68%	—	—	—
20	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	−204/ +152	—	—	63%	—	—	—
21	Brice Turang	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
22	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−267/ +196	—	—	68%	—	—	—
23	Cal Raleigh	0.5	−156/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
24	Cameron Cauley	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
25	Carter Jensen	0.5	−189/ +142	—	—	61%	—	—	—
26	Cedric Mullins	0.5	−260/ +192	—	—	68%	—	—	—
27	Chandler Simpson	1.5	+135/ −181	—	—	40%	—	—	—
28	Chase DeLauter	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
29	Chase Meidroth	0.5	−200/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
30	Christian Yelich	0.5	−166/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
31	Cole Carrigg	0.5	−258/ +190	—	—	68%	—	—	—
32	Cole Young	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
33	Colson Montgomery	0.5	−188/ +140	—	—	61%	—	—	—
34	Colt Emerson	0.5	−132/ −101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
35	Colt Keith	0.5	−160/ +120	—	—	58%	—	—	—
36	Cooper Ingle	0.5	−172/ +129	—	—	59%	—	—	—
37	Cooper Pratt	0.5	−130/ −102	—	—	53%	—	—	—
38	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−123/ −108	—	—	52%	—	—	—
39	David Hamilton	0.5	+112/ −149	—	—	44%	—	—	—
40	Denzer Guzman	0.5	−151/ +113	—	—	56%	—	—	—
41	Dillon Dingler	0.5	−202/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
42	Dominic Canzone	0.5	−197/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
43	Dominic Smith	0.5	−176/ +132	—	—	60%	—	—	—
44	Donovan Walton	0.5	−103/ −129	—	—	47%	—	—	—
45	Drake Baldwin	0.5	−255/ +188	—	—	67%	—	—	—
46	Edouard Julien	0.5	−153/ +115	—	—	57%	—	—	—
47	Edwin Arroyo	0.5	−115/ −116	—	—	50%	—	—	—
48	Elly De La Cruz	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
49	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
50	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	−178/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
51	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−112/ −119	—	—	49%	—	—	—
52	Evan Carter	0.5	−117/ −114	—	—	50%	—	—	—
53	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	−224/ +166	—	—	65%	—	—	—
54	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−196/ +146	—	—	62%	—	—	—
55	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.5	−263/ +193	—	—	68%	—	—	—
56	Freddie Freeman	0.5	−262/ +193	—	—	68%	—	—	—
57	Freddy Fermin	0.5	−126/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
58	Gabriel Arias	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
59	Garrett Mitchell	0.5	−113/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
60	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−142/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
61	Griffin Conine	0.5	−268/ +197	—	—	68%	—	—	—
62	Ha-Seong Kim	0.5	−155/ +116	—	—	57%	—	—	—
63	Hao-Yu Lee	0.5	−108/ −123	—	—	48%	—	—	—
64	Hunter Feduccia	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
65	Hunter Goodman	1.5	+177/ −239	—	—	34%	—	—	—
66	Isaac Collins	0.5	−161/ +121	—	—	58%	—	—	—
67	Ivan Herrera	0.5	−210/ +156	—	—	63%	—	—	—
68	J.P. Crawford	0.5	−164/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
69	JJ Bleday	0.5	−119/ −111	—	—	51%	—	—	—
70	JJ Wetherholt	0.5	−207/ +154	—	—	63%	—	—	—
71	Jac Caglianone	0.5	−250/ +185	—	—	67%	—	—	—
72	Jackson Chourio	0.5	−230/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
73	Jackson Merrill	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
74	Jacob Gonzalez	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
75	Jake Bauers	0.5	−126/ −105	—	—	52%	—	—	—
76	Jake Burger	0.5	−220/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
77	Jake Cronenworth	0.5	−126/ −106	—	—	52%	—	—	—
78	Jake Mangum	0.5	−207/ +154	—	—	63%	—	—	—
79	Jake McCarthy	1.5	+152/ −205	—	—	37%	—	—	—
80	Jakob Marsee	0.5	−272/ +200	—	—	69%	—	—	—
81	James Outman	0.5	+113/ −150	—	—	44%	—	—	—
82	Javier Sanoja	1.5	+160/ −215	—	—	36%	—	—	—
83	Jimmy Crooks	0.5	−129/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
84	Jo Adell	0.5	−133/ +101	—	—	53%	—	—	—
85	Joe Mack	0.5	−217/ +161	—	—	64%	—	—	—
86	Jonathan Aranda	1.5	+161/ −217	—	—	36%	—	—	—
87	Jordan Walker	0.5	−211/ +157	—	—	64%	—	—	—
88	Jorge Soler	0.5	−113/ −117	—	—	50%	—	—	—
89	Josh Jung	1.5	+197/ −268	—	—	32%	—	—	—
90	Josh Lowe	0.5	−109/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
91	Josh Naylor	0.5	−229/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
92	Julio Rodriguez	0.5	−242/ +179	—	—	66%	—	—	—
93	Junior Caminero	1.5	+126/ −168	—	—	41%	—	—	—
94	Justin Foscue	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
95	Kahlil Watson	0.5	−158/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
96	Kerry Carpenter	0.5	−161/ +121	—	—	58%	—	—	—
97	Kevin McGonigle	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
98	Konnor Griffin	1.5	+177/ −240	—	—	34%	—	—	—
99	Kyle Higashioka	0.5	−159/ +119	—	—	57%	—	—	—
100	Kyle Karros	0.5	−171/ +128	—	—	59%	—	—	—

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