Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 4, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
9 lines · Updated Aug 4, 3:32 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — nine lines posted, zero model projections attached, and no edges surfaced. Without projection coverage, the Poisson model has nothing to price against, so `top_plays` comes back empty and there's no quantified edge to act on. The methodology is neutral-biased, which at least means the absence of plays isn't a suppression artifact. Worth noting: any integer strikeout lines (e.g. 2.0) carry a slight over-probability overstatement under the current model, though half-point lines aren't affected. Sparse slate; the numbers aren't there to support a recommendation right now.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 9 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brady Singer | 4.5 | −116/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Grayson Rodriguez | 4.5 | −163/ +128 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Hunter Dobbins | 3.5 | −162/ +126 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 4 | JT Ginn | 5.5 | +123/ −158 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 7.5 | −112/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Joey Cantillo | 5.5 | −124/ −103 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Ryan Weathers | 5.5 | −113/ −113 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Manaea | 4.5 | −110/ −115 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Zack Littell | 3.5 | +131/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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