Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
August 2, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
29 lines · 1 projected · Updated Aug 2, 2:17 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
One play with a projection on a 29-line board is a thin slate, so manage expectations here. Scherzer's under 3.5 Ks is the lone quantified edge: the model puts him at 3.2 projected strikeouts with a 39.75% over probability, implying the under is the side — and the 15.4-point edge against no-vig over probability is real, even at medium confidence. Worth noting that the integer-line caveat doesn't apply here since 3.5 is a half-point line, so the Poisson math is clean. The other 28 lines are running without projections, so there's no model read to offer on them.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 29 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Scherzer vs St. Louis Cardinals | 3.5 | −141/ +110 | 3.2 | 40% | 55% | −15.4 pp | Under | Med |
| 2 | Anthony Kay | 4.5 | +114/ −145 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Cade Cavalli | 5.5 | +121/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Chase Burns | 6.5 | −141/ +110 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Colin Rea | 5.5 | +129/ −165 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Emmet Sheehan | 5.5 | −146/ +114 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Gage Jump | 5.5 | −107/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Gavin Williams | 7.5 | +112/ −143 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 9 | George Kirby | 5.5 | −110/ −116 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Gerrit Cole | 6.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Griffin Jax | 6.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 12 | JR Ritchie | 4.5 | +114/ −145 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Jacob Misiorowski | 9.5 | −106/ −121 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Bennett | 3.5 | −127/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Keider Montero | 3.5 | +123/ −158 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kumar Rocker | 4.5 | −141/ +111 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Kyle Bradish | 5.5 | −110/ −116 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Kyle Freeland | 3.5 | −167/ +130 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Landen Roupp | 4.5 | −148/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Matthew Liberatore | 3.5 | −148/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Merrill Kelly | 3.5 | −130/ +102 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Michael King | 5.5 | −114/ −112 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Mitch Keller | 4.5 | −135/ +106 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Peter Lambert | 5.5 | −119/ −107 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 | −145/ +114 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Seth Lugo | 4.5 | +120/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Taj Bradley | 6.5 | −115/ −111 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Walbert Urena | 4.5 | −149/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Zack Wheeler | 7.5 | −123/ −103 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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