Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges

August 2, 2026 MLB Hits Props

270 lines · 9 projected · Updated Aug 2, 2:17 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Bryan Torres is the clear standout — 8.05 pp of edge on the over 0.5, with a 65.1% model probability against an implied market number around 57%. Keep in mind the bias direction here is high, meaning the model tends to run hot on overs, so that 8.05 gap is worth a slight haircut in your head. Nothing else on the over side gets above 1.5 pp. The more interesting secondary read is the under cluster: Masyn Winn (−5.44 pp edge, 57.7% model over), Ivan Herrera (−3.16 pp), and Jordan Walker (−2.89 pp) all show the market pricing overs too cheaply relative to projections.

How we model these edges

Model method:: ml_monte_carlo
Approximation quality:: Reasonable
Bias direction:: Model edges on overs are biased high — real overs are slightly worse than reported.
Edge definition:: model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)

·Per backtest, the model over-estimates hits overs at high predicted probs (sharpness issue); remediation is the projection engine (`src/projections/hitter.py`), not the probability layer.
·Probabilities come from a 1000-rep Monte Carlo on the per-PA outcome distribution. Lines outside the sim's threshold grid (very rare) fall back to the Poisson approximation — see the per-entry `model_over_prob_method` stamp.
·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.

Planned improvement: Backtest the Monte Carlo `prop_probs` against realized outcomes over a full 2024-2025 sample and recalibrate the per-PA distribution if the residuals exceed ±2 pp at any decile bucket. See `scripts/backtest_props.py`.

Hits Board

9 of 270 projected

Hits prop board sorted by signed model edge (over picks first).
#	Player	Line	Odds O/U	Proj	Model %	Market %	Edge	Pick	Conf
1	Bryan Torres St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−156/ +118	1.04	65%	57%	+8.1 pp	Over	Med
2	Blaze Jordan St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−154/ +116	0.91	58%	57%	+1.5 pp	Over	Med
3	Jose Fermin St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−170/ +128	0.86	60%	59%	+1.0 pp	Over	High
4	Nathan Church St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−142/ +107	0.77	56%	55%	+0.8 pp	Over	High
5	Alec Burleson St. Louis Cardinals	1.5	+193/ −263	1.22	32%	32%	+0.4 pp	Over	High
6	Lars Nootbaar St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−228/ +169	1.02	64%	65%	−1.1 pp	Under	Med
7	Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−220/ +163	0.96	62%	64%	−2.9 pp	Under	High
8	Ivan Herrera St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−215/ +160	0.93	61%	64%	−3.2 pp	Under	High
9	Masyn Winn St. Louis Cardinals	0.5	−207/ +154	0.89	58%	63%	−5.4 pp	Under	High
10	A.J. Ewing	0.5	−230/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
11	Adrian Del Castillo	0.5	−106/ −125	—	—	48%	—	—	—
12	Alan Roden	0.5	−130/ −102	—	—	53%	—	—	—
13	Alec Bohm	0.5	−237/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
14	Alejandro Kirk	0.5	−219/ +163	—	—	64%	—	—	—
15	Alex Bregman	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
16	Andrew Benintendi	0.5	−140/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
17	Andrew Velazquez	0.5	−163/ +122	—	—	58%	—	—	—
18	Andruw Monasterio	0.5	−133/ +100	—	—	53%	—	—	—
19	Andy Pages	0.5	−254/ +188	—	—	67%	—	—	—
20	Austin Riley	0.5	−154/ +116	—	—	57%	—	—	—
21	Austin Wells	0.5	+118/ −157	—	—	43%	—	—	—
22	Ben Malgeri	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
23	Ben Rice	0.5	−186/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
24	Ben Williamson	0.5	−179/ +134	—	—	60%	—	—	—
25	Bo Bichette	1.5	+182/ −246	—	—	33%	—	—	—
26	Braden Montgomery	0.5	−184/ +137	—	—	61%	—	—	—
27	Brandon Lowe	0.5	−180/ +135	—	—	60%	—	—	—
28	Brandon Marsh	0.5	−202/ +150	—	—	63%	—	—	—
29	Brandon Nimmo	0.5	−181/ +135	—	—	60%	—	—	—
30	Brayan Rocchio	0.5	−226/ +168	—	—	65%	—	—	—
31	Brett Baty	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
32	Brice Turang	0.5	−231/ +171	—	—	65%	—	—	—
33	Brooks Lee	0.5	−175/ +131	—	—	60%	—	—	—
34	Bryan De La Cruz	0.5	−154/ +116	—	—	57%	—	—	—
35	Bryan Reynolds	0.5	−185/ +139	—	—	61%	—	—	—
36	Bryce Eldridge	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
37	Bryce Harper	0.5	−223/ +166	—	—	65%	—	—	—
38	Bryson Stott	0.5	−181/ +136	—	—	60%	—	—	—
39	CJ Abrams	0.5	−225/ +167	—	—	65%	—	—	—
40	Cal Raleigh	0.5	−121/ −109	—	—	51%	—	—	—
41	Caleb Durbin	0.5	−188/ +141	—	—	61%	—	—	—
42	Cam Smith	0.5	−155/ +117	—	—	57%	—	—	—
43	Carlos Cortes	0.5	−198/ +148	—	—	62%	—	—	—
44	Carlos Narvaez	0.5	+101/ −134	—	—	46%	—	—	—
45	Carson Benge	0.5	−232/ +172	—	—	66%	—	—	—
46	Carson Kelly	0.5	−123/ −108	—	—	52%	—	—	—
47	Carter Jensen	1.5	+163/ −219	—	—	36%	—	—	—
48	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
49	Chandler Simpson	0.5	−236/ +175	—	—	66%	—	—	—
50	Chase DeLauter	0.5	−244/ +181	—	—	67%	—	—	—
51	Chase Meidroth	0.5	−169/ +127	—	—	59%	—	—	—
52	Christian Koss	0.5	−124/ −107	—	—	52%	—	—	—
53	Christian Walker	0.5	−184/ +138	—	—	61%	—	—	—
54	Christian Yelich	0.5	−221/ +164	—	—	65%	—	—	—
55	Coby Mayo	0.5	−105/ −126	—	—	48%	—	—	—
56	Cole Carrigg	1.5	+169/ −228	—	—	35%	—	—	—
57	Cole Young	0.5	−205/ +153	—	—	63%	—	—	—
58	Colson Montgomery	0.5	−147/ +111	—	—	56%	—	—	—
59	Colt Emerson	0.5	−109/ −122	—	—	49%	—	—	—
60	Colton Cowser	0.5	+103/ −137	—	—	46%	—	—	—
61	Cooper Pratt	0.5	−152/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
62	Corbin Carroll	0.5	−199/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
63	Corey Seager	0.5	−182/ +136	—	—	60%	—	—	—
64	Dalton Rushing	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
65	Dane Myers	0.5	−151/ +114	—	—	56%	—	—	—
66	Dansby Swanson	0.5	−110/ −121	—	—	49%	—	—	—
67	Daulton Varsho	0.5	−182/ +136	—	—	60%	—	—	—
68	David Hamilton	0.5	−124/ −107	—	—	52%	—	—	—
69	Davis Schneider	0.5	+109/ −145	—	—	45%	—	—	—
70	Daylen Lile	0.5	−199/ +149	—	—	62%	—	—	—
71	Denzer Guzman	0.5	−123/ −108	—	—	52%	—	—	—
72	Dillon Dingler	1.5	+170/ −229	—	—	35%	—	—	—
73	Dominic Canzone	0.5	−164/ +123	—	—	58%	—	—	—
74	Donovan Walton	0.5	−166/ +125	—	—	58%	—	—	—
75	Drake Baldwin	0.5	−251/ +185	—	—	67%	—	—	—
76	Drew Cavanaugh	0.5	−115/ −115	—	—	50%	—	—	—
77	Drew Gilbert	0.5	−133/ +100	—	—	53%	—	—	—
78	Drew Romo	0.5	+105/ −139	—	—	46%	—	—	—
79	Dylan Beavers	0.5	−129/ −103	—	—	53%	—	—	—
80	Dylan Crews	0.5	−197/ +147	—	—	62%	—	—	—
81	Elias Diaz	0.5	−120/ −111	—	—	51%	—	—	—
82	Elly De La Cruz	0.5	−240/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
83	Endy Rodriguez	0.5	−140/ +105	—	—	54%	—	—	—
84	Enrique Hernandez	0.5	−157/ +118	—	—	57%	—	—	—
85	Ernie Clement	0.5	−241/ +178	—	—	66%	—	—	—
86	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.5	−168/ +126	—	—	59%	—	—	—
87	Eugenio Suarez	0.5	−143/ +107	—	—	55%	—	—	—
88	Evan Carter	0.5	−135/ +102	—	—	54%	—	—	—
89	Ezequiel Duran	0.5	−203/ +151	—	—	63%	—	—	—
90	Ezequiel Tovar	0.5	−170/ +128	—	—	59%	—	—	—
91	Fernando Tatis Jr.	1.5	+175/ −236	—	—	34%	—	—	—
92	Francisco Alvarez	0.5	−144/ +109	—	—	55%	—	—	—
93	Francisco Lindor	0.5	−229/ +170	—	—	65%	—	—	—
94	Freddie Freeman	0.5	−245/ +181	—	—	67%	—	—	—
95	Gabriel Arias	0.5	−141/ +106	—	—	55%	—	—	—
96	Gabriel Moreno	0.5	−215/ +160	—	—	64%	—	—	—
97	Garrett Mitchell	0.5	−174/ +130	—	—	59%	—	—	—
98	Gavin Sheets	0.5	−144/ +108	—	—	55%	—	—	—
99	George Springer	0.5	−194/ +145	—	—	62%	—	—	—
100	Geraldo Perdomo	0.5	−177/ +133	—	—	60%	—	—	—

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