Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 4, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
87 lines · 7 projected · Updated Jun 4, 11:13 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Wilyer Abreu is the clearest name on the board — 11.1% edge over 1.5 total bases with a 0.586 model probability and a 1.97 projection. Jarren Duran slots right behind him at 8.95% edge, 0.563 probability, 1.89 projection on the same line. Both sit at high confidence, and given the Poisson low-bias caveat, the real over probabilities here are slightly better than reported. Willson Contreras (7.54% edge, 1.82 projection) and Ceddanne Rafaela (6.72%, 1.83) round out a tight cluster worth considering. Coverage is thin — only 7 of 87 lines carry a projection — so treat the rest of the board as noise.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
7 of 87 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | −103/ −128 | 1.97 | 59% | 47% | +11.1 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | −103/ −129 | 1.89 | 56% | 47% | +8.9 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +100/ −132 | 1.82 | 54% | 47% | +7.5 pp | Over | High |
| 4 | Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | −105/ −126 | 1.83 | 55% | 48% | +6.7 pp | Over | High |
| 5 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | 1.50 | 44% | 42% | +2.6 pp | Over | Med |
| 6 | Caleb Durbin Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | 1.22 | 34% | 38% | −3.6 pp | Under | Med |
| 7 | Andruw Monasterio Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | 1.01 | 27% | 40% | −13.7 pp | Under | Med |
| 8 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −102/ −129 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | −128/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Byron Buxton | 1.5 | −122/ −109 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Carter Jensen | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Coby Mayo | 1.5 | +142/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Colby Thomas | 1.5 | +119/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Dalton Rushing | 1.5 | +129/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Gavin Sheets | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | −119/ −111 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Henry Bolte | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Ian Happ | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Ildemaro Vargas | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 41 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +145/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | +128/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Jeff McNeil | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +111/ −147 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Michael Busch | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Miguel Andujar | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +153/ −206 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Nick Kurtz | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Nico Hoerner | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Nolan Arenado | 1.5 | +141/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1.5 | −112/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Rafael Devers | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Sal Frelick | 1.5 | +154/ −207 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Salvador Perez | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Samuel Basallo | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Seiya Suzuki | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Shea Langeliers | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Spencer Horwitz | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Taylor Ward | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Trea Turner | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Tyler Soderstrom | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Will Smith | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 85 | William Contreras | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Willy Adames | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Yordan Alvarez | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
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