Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 4, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
15 lines · 1 projected · Updated Jun 4, 11:13 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Only one of the 15 lines carries a projection today, so the board is essentially one note wide. Trevor Rogers is the play — model has him at 3.7 strikeouts against a 4.5 line, with a 31.3% over probability producing an 11.98-point edge to the under. That's a high-confidence read by the model's own grading, and the neutral bias flag means no systematic inflation or deflation is skewing it. Fourteen other lines are flying blind without projections, so treat anything else on the board as market opinion, not model signal.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 15 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Rogers vs Boston Red Sox | 4.5 | +118/ −151 | 3.7 | 31% | 43% | −12.0 pp | Under | High |
| 2 | Adrian Houser | 3.5 | −129/ +101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brayan Bello | 3.5 | −162/ +127 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Carlos Rodon | 5.5 | +121/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Chris Sale | 7.5 | +109/ −139 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Coleman Crow | 3.5 | −142/ +111 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 7 | JT Ginn | 3.5 | −167/ +131 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jared Jones | 5.5 | −115/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Justin Wrobleski | 3.5 | −118/ −108 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Lucas Giolito | 3.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ryne Nelson | 4.5 | +130/ −166 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Seth Lugo | 4.5 | −133/ +104 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Shota Imanaga | 6.5 | +104/ −133 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Slade Cecconi | 4.5 | +113/ −144 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Zack Wheeler | 6.5 | −104/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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