College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 12 Betting Lines

59 games priced · 59 graded · November 15, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:27 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 33–26; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 35–24; 11 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 26–33
Average total: 52.3; avg spread 10.7

Our model against the market

Model error: 11.71; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 12.03; same games
Model ATS: 35–23; 58 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Oregon State at Tulsa

Final

Oregon State 14 · Tulsa 31

Spread: Tulsa −1.5; Tulsa -1.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −115; Tulsa 52% to win; 2 books
Our model: +1.9; -3.4 vs market · leans Oregon State

Spread moved +0.0 (-1.5 → -1.5, 2 books)

Total moved +0.0 (50.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Tulsa covered · by 15.5 · 45 points — under

Clemson at Louisville

Final

Clemson 20 · Louisville 19

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisville −1.5; Louisville -1.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Louisville 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.0; +4.5 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved -7.0 (5.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -10.0 (60.5 → 50.5, 3 books)

Result

Clemson covered · by 2.5 · 39 points — under

Ohio at Western Michigan

Final

Ohio 13 · Western Michigan 17

Conference game

Spread: Western Michigan −1.5; Western Michigan -1.5; 3 books
Total: 47.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −110 / −120; Western Michigan 51% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.3; -1.8 vs market · leans Ohio

Spread moved -3.0 (1.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Result

Western Michigan covered · by 2.5 · 30 points — under

Boise State at San Diego State

Final

Boise State 7 · San Diego State 17

Conference game

Spread: San Diego State −2.0; San Diego State -2.0; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; San Diego State 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.2; -5.2 vs market · leans Boise State

Spread moved +0.5 (-2.5 → -2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (41.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 8.0 · 24 points — under

Liberty at Florida International

Final

Liberty 27 · Florida International 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Liberty −2.5; Florida International +2.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −140 / +120; Florida International 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Florida International

Spread moved -0.5 (3.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (53.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida International covered · by 9.5 · 61 points — over

Buffalo at Central Michigan

Final

Buffalo 19 · Central Michigan 38

Conference game

Spread: Central Michigan −2.5; Central Michigan -2.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Central Michigan 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.9; +1.4 vs market · leans Central Michigan

Spread moved +0.0 (-2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (43.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 16.5 · 57 points — over

Eastern Michigan at Ball State

Final

Eastern Michigan 24 · Ball State 9

Conference game

Spread: Eastern Michigan −2.5; Ball State +2.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −142 / +120; Ball State 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.2; +3.7 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved -0.5 (3.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Eastern Michigan covered · by 12.5 · 33 points — under

TCU at BYU

Final

TCU 13 · BYU 44

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: BYU −3.0; BYU -3.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +135 / −155; BYU 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.7; +3.7 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +2.5 (-5.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (51.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 28.0 · 57 points — over

Wyoming at Fresno State

Final

Wyoming 3 · Fresno State 24

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Fresno State −3.0; Fresno State -3.0; 3 books
Total: 40.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +124 / −148; Fresno State 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.0; +0.9 vs market · leans Fresno State

Spread moved +1.5 (-4.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (39.5 → 40.5, 2 books)

Result

Fresno State covered · by 18.0 · 27 points — under

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern

Final

Coastal Carolina 40 · Georgia Southern 45

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Georgia Southern −3.0; Georgia Southern -3.0; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −150; Georgia Southern 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.2; +1.1 vs market · leans Georgia Southern

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (57.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Southern covered · by 2.0 · 85 points — over

Texas State at Southern Miss

Final

Texas State 41 · Southern Miss 14

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Southern Miss −3.0; Southern Miss -3.0; 3 books
Total: 65.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +136 / −162; Southern Miss 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.3; -1.7 vs market · leans Texas State

Spread moved +3.5 (-6.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (64.5 → 65.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas State covered · by 30.0 · 55 points — under

Memphis at East Carolina

Final

Memphis 27 · East Carolina 31

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: East Carolina −3.0; East Carolina -3.0; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +125 / −148; East Carolina 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.2; -2.8 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (60.5 → 57.0, 2 books)

Result

East Carolina covered · by 1.0 · 58 points — over

Texas at Georgia

Final

Texas 10 · Georgia 35

Conference game

Spread: Georgia −3.5; Georgia -3.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −190; Georgia 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.2; +2.7 vs market · leans Georgia

Spread moved -1.0 (-2.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (47.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia covered · by 21.5 · 45 points — under

North Carolina at Wake Forest

Final

North Carolina 12 · Wake Forest 28

Conference game

Spread: Wake Forest −3.5; Wake Forest -3.5; 3 books
Total: 37.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +145 / −170; Wake Forest 61% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.9; +4.4 vs market · leans Wake Forest

Spread moved +2.5 (-6.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (38.5 → 37.5, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 12.5 · 40 points — over

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State

Final

Kennesaw State 26 · Jacksonville State 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Kennesaw State −3.5; Jacksonville State +3.5; 3 books
Total: 56.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; Jacksonville State 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.3; +5.8 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved +1.0 (2.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (51.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Jacksonville State covered · by 12.5 · 61 points — over

Arkansas at LSU

Final

Arkansas 22 · LSU 23

Conference game

Spread: LSU −4.0; LSU -4.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +155 / −185; LSU 62% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.8; +4.8 vs market · leans LSU

Spread moved +2.5 (-6.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (55.5 → 58.0, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas covered · by 3.0 · 45 points — under

South Alabama at UL Monroe

Final

South Alabama 26 · UL Monroe 14

Conference game

Spread: South Alabama −4.0; UL Monroe +4.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +160; UL Monroe 37% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.7; -0.7 vs market · leans South Alabama

Spread moved +0.5 (3.5 → 4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (51.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

South Alabama covered · by 8.0 · 40 points — under

Utah State at UNLV

Final

Utah State 26 · UNLV 29

Conference game

Spread: UNLV −4.5; UNLV -4.5; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −195; UNLV 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.2; +2.7 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved +0.5 (-5.5 → -5.0, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (69.5 → 68.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 1.5 · 55 points — under

Virginia at Duke

Final

Virginia 34 · Duke 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Duke −5.5; Duke -5.5; 3 books
Total: 60.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; Duke 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.9; -2.6 vs market · leans Virginia

Spread moved +1.0 (-6.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (58.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Virginia covered · by 22.5 · 51 points — under

Toledo at Miami (OH)

Final

Toledo 24 · Miami (OH) 3

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −5.5; Miami (OH) +5.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −230 / +190; Miami (OH) 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.2; +2.3 vs market · leans Miami (OH)

Spread moved +2.5 (3.0 → 5.5, 3 books)

Result

Toledo covered · by 15.5 · 27 points — under

Arizona at Cincinnati

Final

Arizona 30 · Cincinnati 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Cincinnati −6.0; Cincinnati -6.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +175 / −210; Cincinnati 65% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.7; -4.3 vs market · leans Arizona

Spread moved -0.5 (-6.0 → -6.5, 2 books)

Total moved -0.5 (56.5 → 56.0, 2 books)

Result

Arizona covered · by 12.0 · 54 points — under

Oklahoma at Alabama

Final

Oklahoma 23 · Alabama 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Alabama −6.5; Alabama -6.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +215 / −250; Alabama 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.8; +0.3 vs market · leans Alabama

Spread moved +6.0 (-12.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -11.0 (56.5 → 45.5, 3 books)

Result

Oklahoma covered · by 8.5 · 44 points — under

Iowa at USC

Final

Iowa 21 · USC 26

Conference game

Spread: USC −6.5; USC -6.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +200 / −230; USC 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 1.5 · 47 points — under

UTEP at Missouri State

Final

UTEP 24 · Missouri State 38

Conference game

Spread: Missouri State −6.5; Missouri State -6.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +210 / −250; Missouri State 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.7; +3.2 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved -2.0 (-4.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (50.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Missouri State covered · by 7.5 · 62 points — over

Penn State at Michigan State

Final

Penn State 28 · Michigan State 10

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Penn State −7.0; Michigan State +7.0; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −258 / +210; Michigan State 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.1; -6.1 vs market · leans Penn State

Spread moved -0.5 (7.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (48.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Penn State covered · by 11.0 · 38 points — under

Mississippi State at Missouri

Final

Mississippi State 27 · Missouri 49

Conference game

Spread: Missouri −7.5; Missouri -7.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +210 / −250; Missouri 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.9; +1.4 vs market · leans Missouri

Spread moved -1.0 (-6.5 → -7.5, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 3 books)

Result

Missouri covered · by 14.5 · 76 points — over

Air Force at UConn

Final

Air Force 16 · UConn 26

Spread: UConn −7.5; UConn -7.5; 3 books
Total: 64.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +245 / −305; UConn 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.7; +2.1 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +0.5 (-8.0 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (63.5 → 64.5, 2 books)

Result

UConn covered · by 2.5 · 42 points — under

Kent State at Akron

Final

Kent State 42 · Akron 35

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Akron −7.5; Akron -7.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −290; Akron 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.3; +1.8 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved -3.0 (-4.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Result

Kent State covered · by 14.5 · 77 points — over

South Florida at Navy

Final

South Florida 38 · Navy 41

Conference gameUpset

Spread: South Florida −8.5; Navy +8.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −340 / +270; Navy 26% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.3; -1.8 vs market · leans South Florida

Spread moved -1.5 (10.0 → 8.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (63.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Navy covered · by 11.5 · 79 points — over

Utah at Baylor

Final

Utah 55 · Baylor 28

Conference game

Spread: Utah −9.5; Baylor +9.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −360 / +285; Baylor 25% to win; 2 books
Our model: +10.9; -1.4 vs market · leans Utah

Spread moved +0.5 (9.0 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (60.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah covered · by 17.5 · 83 points — over

San José State at Nevada

Final

San José State 10 · Nevada 55

Conference gameUpset

Spread: San José State −9.5; Nevada +9.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −375 / +295; Nevada 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.8; +3.7 vs market · leans Nevada

Spread moved +1.0 (8.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (52.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Nevada covered · by 54.5 · 65 points — over

Troy at Old Dominion

Final

Troy 0 · Old Dominion 33

Conference game

Spread: Old Dominion −9.5; Old Dominion -9.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −400; Old Dominion 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.4; +0.9 vs market · leans Old Dominion

Spread moved +1.0 (-10.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.0 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Old Dominion covered · by 23.5 · 33 points — under

Marshall at Georgia State

Final

Marshall 30 · Georgia State 18

Conference game

Spread: Marshall −9.5; Georgia State +9.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −340 / +270; Georgia State 26% to win; 3 books
Our model: +12.1; -2.6 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +3.0 (6.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (62.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Marshall covered · by 2.5 · 48 points — under

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts

Final

Northern Illinois 45 · Massachusetts 3

Conference game

Spread: Northern Illinois −9.5; Massachusetts +9.5; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −380 / +290; Massachusetts 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +12.2; -2.7 vs market · leans Northern Illinois

Spread moved -1.5 (11.0 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (42.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Northern Illinois covered · by 32.5 · 48 points — over

Michigan at Northwestern

Final

Michigan 24 · Northwestern 22

Neutral siteConference gameOn the 10

Spread: Michigan −10.0; Northwestern +10.0; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −500 / +360; Northwestern 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.5; +1.5 vs market · leans Northwestern

Spread moved +0.0 (10.0 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (40.5 → 42.0, 2 books)

Result

Northwestern covered · by 8.0 · 46 points — over

Louisiana Tech at Washington State

Final

Louisiana Tech 3 · Washington State 28

On the 10

Spread: Washington State −10.0; Washington State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −410; Washington State 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; -5.0 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved -3.5 (-6.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (47.0 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 15.0 · 31 points — under

West Virginia at Arizona State

Final

West Virginia 23 · Arizona State 25

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Arizona State −10.0; Arizona State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −380; Arizona State 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -14.1; +4.1 vs market · leans Arizona State

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (47.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

West Virginia covered · by 8.0 · 48 points — over

Florida at Ole Miss

Final

Florida 24 · Ole Miss 34

Conference game

Spread: Ole Miss −10.5; Ole Miss -10.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +370 / −460; Ole Miss 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.1; +2.6 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved +3.0 (-13.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (52.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida covered · by 0.5 · 58 points — over

Delaware at Sam Houston

Final

Delaware 23 · Sam Houston 26

Neutral siteConference gameUpset

Spread: Delaware −11.5; Sam Houston +11.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −455 / +350; Sam Houston 21% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.5; +5.0 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved +3.0 (8.5 → 11.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (56.5 → 56.0, 2 books)

Result

Sam Houston covered · by 14.5 · 49 points — under

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

Final

Notre Dame 37 · Pittsburgh 15

Spread: Notre Dame −12.5; Pittsburgh +12.5; 3 books
Total: 55.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −485 / +370; Pittsburgh 20% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.8; +1.7 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved +2.0 (10.5 → 12.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (56.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Notre Dame covered · by 9.5 · 52 points — under

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky

Final

Middle Tennessee 26 · Western Kentucky 42

Conference game

Spread: Western Kentucky −13.5; Western Kentucky -13.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +400 / −550; Western Kentucky 81% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.7; +4.2 vs market · leans Western Kentucky

Spread moved +0.0 (-13.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.5 (56.0 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 2.5 · 68 points — over

Virginia Tech at Florida State

Final

Virginia Tech 14 · Florida State 34

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Florida State −14.0; Florida State -14.0; 3 books
Total: 55.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +425 / −575; Florida State 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.0; -4.0 vs market · leans Virginia Tech

Spread moved -2.5 (-11.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (54.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida State covered · by 6.0 · 48 points — under

Purdue at Washington

Final

Purdue 13 · Washington 49

Conference game

Spread: Washington −14.5; Washington -14.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Washington 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.0; +2.5 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved +2.0 (-16.5 → -14.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (52.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Washington covered · by 21.5 · 62 points — over

Colorado State at New Mexico

Final

Colorado State 17 · New Mexico 20

Conference game

Spread: New Mexico −15.5; New Mexico -15.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +600 / −700; New Mexico 86% to win; 2 books
Our model: -14.1; -1.4 vs market · leans Colorado State

Spread moved -1.0 (-14.5 → -15.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Colorado State covered · by 12.5 · 37 points — under

South Carolina at Texas A&M

Final

South Carolina 30 · Texas A&M 31

Conference game

Spread: Texas A&M −16.5; Texas A&M -16.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +600 / −900; Texas A&M 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.7; -0.8 vs market · leans South Carolina

Spread moved +2.0 (-18.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (48.0 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

South Carolina covered · by 15.5 · 61 points — over

Maryland at Illinois

Final

Maryland 6 · Illinois 24

Conference game

Spread: Illinois −16.5; Illinois -16.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +525 / −750; Illinois 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.9; -2.6 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved -2.5 (-14.0 → -16.5, 3 books)

Result

Illinois covered · by 1.5 · 30 points — under

Georgia Tech at Boston College

Final

Georgia Tech 36 · Boston College 34

Conference game

Spread: Georgia Tech −16.5; Boston College +16.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −850 / +570; Boston College 14% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.1; +2.4 vs market · leans Boston College

Spread moved +0.0 (16.5 → 16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.5 (57.5 → 61.0, 2 books)

Result

Boston College covered · by 14.5 · 70 points — over

NC State at Miami

Final

NC State 7 · Miami 41

Conference game

Spread: Miami −16.5; Miami -16.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +500 / −700; Miami 84% to win; 3 books
Our model: -18.4; +1.9 vs market · leans Miami

Spread moved -2.0 (-14.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (55.0 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami covered · by 17.5 · 48 points — under

Florida Atlantic at Tulane

Final

Florida Atlantic 24 · Tulane 35

Conference game

Spread: Tulane −16.5; Tulane -16.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +525 / −800; Tulane 85% to win; 3 books
Our model: -18.8; +2.3 vs market · leans Tulane

Spread moved +0.0 (-16.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (62.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 5.5 · 59 points — under

UTSA at Charlotte

Final

UTSA 28 · Charlotte 7

Conference game

Spread: UTSA −17.0; Charlotte +17.0; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −900 / +550; Charlotte 15% to win; 3 books
Our model: +16.2; +0.8 vs market · leans Charlotte

Spread moved -1.0 (18.0 → 17.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (60.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

UTSA covered · by 4.0 · 35 points — under

North Texas at UAB

Final

North Texas 53 · UAB 24

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −17.5; UAB +17.5; 3 books
Total: 69.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −1000 / +625; UAB 13% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.0; -0.5 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved -0.5 (18.0 → 17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (69.5 → 69.0, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 11.5 · 77 points — over

Kansas State at Oklahoma State

Final

Kansas State 14 · Oklahoma State 6

Conference game

Spread: Kansas State −19.5; Oklahoma State +19.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1350 / +800; Oklahoma State 11% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.6; +0.9 vs market · leans Oklahoma State

Spread moved -0.5 (20.0 → 19.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.5 (54.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma State covered · by 11.5 · 20 points — under

App State at James Madison

Final

App State 10 · James Madison 58

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −21.0; James Madison -21.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1000 / −1800; James Madison 91% to win; 3 books
Our model: -22.9; +1.9 vs market · leans James Madison

Spread moved -1.5 (-19.5 → -21.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

James Madison covered · by 27.0 · 68 points — over

Tennessee Tech at Kentucky

Final

Tennessee Tech 10 · Kentucky 42

Spread: Kentucky −22.5; Kentucky -22.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1000 / −2000; Kentucky 91% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.0 (-22.5 → -23.5, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (52.0 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Kentucky covered · by 9.5 · 52 points — under

UCF at Texas Tech

Final

UCF 9 · Texas Tech 48

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −24.5; Texas Tech -24.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1200 / −2800; Texas Tech 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -20.3; -4.2 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved -1.0 (-23.5 → -24.5, 2 books)

Total moved +1.0 (47.5 → 48.5, 3 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 14.5 · 57 points — over

Minnesota at Oregon

Final

Minnesota 13 · Oregon 42

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −26.5; Oregon -26.5; 3 books
Total: 46.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +1500 / −3600; Oregon 94% to win; 3 books
Our model: -24.6; -1.9 vs market · leans Minnesota

Spread moved -4.0 (-22.5 → -26.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (44.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Oregon covered · by 2.5 · 55 points — over

Wisconsin at Indiana

Final

Wisconsin 7 · Indiana 31

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −28.0; Indiana -28.0; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2500 / −4500; Indiana 96% to win; 2 books
Our model: -27.3; -0.7 vs market · leans Wisconsin

Spread moved +2.5 (-30.5 → -28.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (43.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Wisconsin covered · by 4.0 · 38 points — under

UCLA at Ohio State

Final

UCLA 10 · Ohio State 48

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −33.0; Ohio State -33.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +3000 / −6500; Ohio State 97% to win; 2 books
Our model: -31.1; -1.9 vs market · leans UCLA

Spread moved -1.5 (-31.5 → -33.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (48.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 5.0 · 58 points — over

New Mexico State at Tennessee

Final

New Mexico State 9 · Tennessee 42

Spread: Tennessee −41.5; Tennessee -41.5; 3 books
Total: 60.0; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -33.1; -8.4 vs market · leans New Mexico State

Spread moved -3.0 (-38.5 → -41.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (61.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico State covered · by 8.5 · 51 points — under

Biggest upsets

Sam Houston beat Delaware21% to win
Nevada beat San José State24% to win
Navy beat South Florida26% to win
Kent State beat Akron28% to win
Oklahoma beat Alabama31% to win

Where we disagreed most

New Mexico State at Tennessee-8.4 pts toward New Mexico State
Penn State at Michigan State-6.1 pts toward Penn State
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State+5.8 pts toward Jacksonville State
Boise State at San Diego State-5.2 pts toward Boise State
Delaware at Sam Houston+5.0 pts toward Sam Houston

Coverage

59 games in this week's window · 59 with a spread · 59 with a total · 58 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →