Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 6, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
119 lines · Updated Jul 22, 8:36 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 119 lines are priced, but zero carry a projection and the top plays list is empty, so there's nothing to single out. The Poisson model hasn't surfaced any edges worth noting, and with `num_with_projection: 0`, the underlying rate estimates are operating without game-specific inputs. Worth flagging for context: the methodology runs low on over edges by design, meaning real overs would tend to look slightly better than reported — but that caveat means little when the model isn't generating signals to begin with. Pass on this market today.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 119 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Adrian Del Castillo | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Amed Rosario | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Andrew Benintendi | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −106/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Austin Martin | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | −132/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Bryson Stott | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 20 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Cam Smith | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Carlos Cortes | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Chase Meidroth | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +108/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Cole Young | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Colson Montgomery | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −128/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Curtis Mead | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Dane Myers | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 35 | David Hamilton | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Dylan Crews | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +155/ −208 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Eugenio Suarez | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +102/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Garrett Mitchell | 1.5 | −109/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 45 | George Springer | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +101/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 49 | J.P. Crawford | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 50 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 51 | JJ Bleday | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 52 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Jac Caglianone | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Jackson Chourio | 2.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Jacob Gonzalez | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 58 | James Wood | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Jarren Duran | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | +113/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jose Altuve | 1.5 | +152/ −204 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | −104/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | −127/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Luis Rengifo | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Luke Raley | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Masyn Winn | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +114/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +115/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Nelson Velazquez | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Nick Kurtz | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Nico Hoerner | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Nolan Arenado | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Pavin Smith | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +143/ −192 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Sal Frelick | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Sal Stewart | 1.5 | +101/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
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