Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 6, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
25 lines · 1 projected · Updated Jun 8, 11:00 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Only one pitcher on the board carries a projection today, so this is a thin slate — but the single name worth discussing is loud. Bryce Miller sits at 4.5 Ks with a model projection of 6.4, producing a 21.4-point edge against the no-vig line and a 76.5% over probability via Poisson. That's a meaningful gap by any reasonable standard. Methodology is neutral with no bias flags, so the number isn't being inflated by a systematic lean. One play, medium confidence, but the edge is real.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 25 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Miller Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | 4.5 | −140/ +110 | 6.4 | 76% | 55% | +21.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 2 | Andrew Painter | 4.5 | +133/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Ben Brown | 5.5 | −102/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Braxton Ashcraft | 5.5 | −103/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 4.5 | +104/ −132 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Griffin Canning | 4.5 | −116/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Kochanowicz | 3.5 | +132/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Leiter | 5.5 | −102/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Jacob Misiorowski | 8.5 | +103/ −131 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 6.5 | +114/ −146 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Keider Montero | 4.5 | +130/ −166 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kyle Bradish | 4.5 | −159/ +124 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Landen Roupp | 5.5 | +122/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Luinder Avila | 3.5 | −118/ −108 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Matthew Liberatore | 5.5 | +128/ −163 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Nick Lodolo | 4.5 | −143/ +112 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Nolan McLean | 5.5 | −134/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Ranger Suarez | 5.5 | +126/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Shane McClanahan | 5.5 | +116/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Spencer Strider | 6.5 | +102/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Tanner Bibee | 4.5 | −160/ +125 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Tatsuya Imai | 4.5 | −143/ +112 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Will Warren | 5.5 | +121/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 7.5 | +121/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Zack Littell | 3.5 | +134/ −172 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
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