Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 5, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
124 lines · Updated Jun 5, 2:26 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 124 lines priced, zero projections loaded, and no plays cleared the edge threshold. Without projection coverage, the model can't generate over-probabilities, so `top_plays` comes back empty. Worth noting for when data does populate: the Poisson methodology runs with a low bias on overs, meaning any edges that do surface on over lines are likely understated rather than inflated. Check back once projections sync; there's nothing actionable here right now.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 124 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +100/ −132 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Angel Martinez | 1.5 | +139/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Blake Dunn | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | −128/ −103 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +144/ −192 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Bryan Torres | 1.5 | +145/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Bryce Eldridge | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +129/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Byron Buxton | 1.5 | −128/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 19 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Carlos Cortes | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Carson Kelly | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Carter Jensen | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | −115/ −116 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Chase Meidroth | 1.5 | +140/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Christian Yelich | 1.5 | −113/ −117 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −108/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Curtis Mead | 1.5 | +141/ −188 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Dansby Swanson | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Daulton Varsho | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Garrett Mitchell | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 41 | George Springer | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −127/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Ian Happ | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Isaac Paredes | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 48 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +149/ −199 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 49 | JJ Bleday | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 50 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | −145/ +109 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Jake Mangum | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Jake McCarthy | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 55 | James Wood | 1.5 | +100/ −133 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Jeremy Pena | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +102/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +154/ −206 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +145/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Kyle Karros | 1.5 | +145/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Liam Hicks | 1.5 | +148/ −198 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Luis Rengifo | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Masyn Winn | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Matt Chapman | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Michael Busch | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | −113/ −118 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Miguel Andujar | 1.5 | +152/ −205 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Mike Trout | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Mookie Betts | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Nick Kurtz | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Nico Hoerner | 1.5 | −107/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Nolan Arenado | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Oneil Cruz | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Otto Lopez | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1.5 | −108/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Rafael Devers | 1.5 | −109/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Randal Grichuk | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +153/ −205 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
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