Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 5, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
130 lines · Updated Jun 4, 11:21 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — 130 lines processed, zero projections loaded, and no plays surfaced from the model. Without per-player projections, edge calculations can't run, so `top_plays` comes back empty. Worth noting that the Poisson methodology already reads low on overs by design, meaning any edges that did appear would be slightly understated. Nothing to act on here; check back once projections populate.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 130 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aaron Judge | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Adolis Garcia | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Alec Bohm | 1.5 | +155/ −208 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Andres Gimenez | 1.5 | −115/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Andrew Vaughn | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Angel Martinez | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | −135/ +102 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Brady House | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +110/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brett Baty | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Brooks Lee | 2.5 | −148/ +115 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Bryson Stott | 2.5 | −130/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Byron Buxton | 1.5 | −122/ −109 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 25 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +120/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Carson Kelly | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 1.5 | +151/ −202 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | −105/ −125 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +120/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | +119/ −159 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +120/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Curtis Mead | 2.5 | +115/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Dalton Rushing | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Darell Hernaiz | 1.5 | +156/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Daulton Varsho | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +128/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | +102/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Edouard Julien | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | −135/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Francisco Alvarez | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | −115/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 47 | George Springer | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +151/ −203 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | −130/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Ildemaro Vargas | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +141/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 53 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 54 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Jackson Chourio | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Jacob Wilson | 1.5 | −115/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Jake Mangum | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Jakob Marsee | 1.5 | +153/ −205 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 60 | James Wood | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jared Triolo | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jarren Duran | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jo Adell | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 64 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +145/ −188 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Jose Tena | 1.5 | +100/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Josh Jung | 2.5 | +130/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | −126/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +105/ −135 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Kazuma Okamoto | 4.5 | +120/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Ketel Marte | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Kyle Stowers | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Liam Hicks | 2.5 | −125/ −105 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Luis Garcia Jr. | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 86 | Luke Keaschall | 1.5 | −135/ +105 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 87 | MJ Melendez | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Maikel Garcia | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Marcell Ozuna | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Marcus Semien | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Mark Vientos | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Matt Chapman | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Matt Vierling | 4.5 | −120/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Miguel Andujar | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Mike Trout | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
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