Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 4, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
20 lines · Updated Jun 4, 11:17 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin — 20 lines priced, zero projections loaded, and no top plays surfaced. Without projected total bases to anchor the Poisson model, edge calculations can't run, so there's nothing here worth acting on today. Worth noting for when projections do populate: the methodology carries a low bias on overs, meaning any edges that appear will be understated — real over value runs slightly better than reported. Check back once the projection layer is live.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
0 of 20 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | −135/ +102 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Brenton Doyle | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Brett Baty | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Francisco Alvarez | 1.5 | −107/ −123 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −124/ −107 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Jordan Beck | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | −134/ +101 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Kyle Karros | 1.5 | +152/ −205 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 13 | MJ Melendez | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Marcus Semien | 1.5 | −103/ −128 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Mark Vientos | 1.5 | +111/ −147 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 16 | TJ Rumfield | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Troy Johnston | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Tyler Freeman | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Tyrone Taylor | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Willi Castro | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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