Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 4, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
3 lines · Updated Jun 4, 11:17 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
The board is thin today — three lines, no projections loaded, and the model returned zero top plays. Without underlying rate data attached to any pitcher, the Poisson engine has nothing to work from, so edge values are absent across the board. That's not a market inefficiency worth forcing. Check back as projections populate closer to first pitch; if the sim data comes in, the K market can move fast on days with a favorable pitching slate.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
0 of 3 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Tolle | 4.5 | −150/ +118 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | 7.5 | +114/ −146 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Tomoyuki Sugano | 3.5 | +103/ −132 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
More for this date
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