Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 3, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
129 lines · 8 projected · Updated Jun 5, 12:45 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Contreras is the loudest number on the board — 35.2% edge over no-vig implied with a 0.7585 model probability and a 2.74 TB projection against a 1.5 line. Four Red Sox follow in a cluster: Duran (26.2% edge, 2.44 projection), Roman Anthony (25.2%, 2.21), Wilyer Abreu (22.8%, 2.31), and Rafaela (22.4%, 2.03) — that's essentially a Boston stack hiding in plain sight. Remember the Poisson bias runs low here, so every over edge is slightly understated. Coverage is thin at eight projected players out of 129 lines, so treat anything outside that group with extra skepticism.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
8 of 129 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | 2.74 | 76% | 41% | +35.2 pp | Over | Med |
| 2 | Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | 2.44 | 70% | 44% | +26.2 pp | Over | Med |
| 3 | Roman Anthony Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | 2.21 | 65% | 40% | +25.2 pp | Over | Med |
| 4 | Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +111/ −147 | 2.31 | 67% | 44% | +22.8 pp | Over | Med |
| 5 | Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +147/ −198 | 2.03 | 60% | 38% | +22.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 6 | Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +101/ −133 | 1.89 | 56% | 47% | +9.8 pp | Over | Med |
| 7 | Luke Keaschall Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +152/ −205 | 0.91 | 23% | 37% | −14.0 pp | Under | Med |
| 8 | Victor Caratini Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | 0.91 | 23% | 38% | −15.2 pp | Under | Med |
| 9 | Aaron Judge | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Adolis Garcia | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −105/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Angel Martinez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Austin Riley | 1.5 | −123/ −107 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −104/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Brett Baty | 1.5 | +156/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +108/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Bryson Stott | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 26 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Carlos Correa | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Carson Kelly | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −107/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +118/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Dalton Rushing | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Dansby Swanson | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Darell Hernaiz | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Daulton Varsho | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | −155/ +117 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Edouard Julien | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Eli White | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | −117/ −113 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Garrett Mitchell | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Heliot Ramos | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Ian Happ | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Ildemaro Vargas | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 58 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +155/ −208 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 59 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jacob Wilson | 1.5 | −108/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jake Burger | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 64 | James Wood | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Jesus Sanchez | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Jo Adell | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Jose Altuve | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Jose Fernandez | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | −111/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +155/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Ketel Marte | 2.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Lenyn Sosa | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Luis Garcia Jr. | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Luis Rengifo | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 86 | MJ Melendez | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Maikel Garcia | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Marcus Semien | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Mark Vientos | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Matt Chapman | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | −140/ +106 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Michael Busch | 1.5 | −119/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | −115/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | −107/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Miguel Andujar | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Mike Trout | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Moisés Ballesteros | 1.5 | −102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
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