Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 3, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
129 lines · 8 projected · Updated Jul 20, 9:42 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Willson Contreras is the loudest number on the board — 35.4% edge over the market on the 1.5 line, with a 2.75 projection and 76% model probability of hitting. Behind him, four Red Sox cluster together: Duran (26.4% edge, 2.45 projection), Roman Anthony (25.4%, 2.22), Wilyer Abreu (23.0%, 2.32), and Rafaela (22.6%, 2.04) all clear the same 1.5 line. Worth noting: the Poisson model runs low on over edges, so those Red Sox stack numbers are slightly conservative. Only 8 of 129 lines carry projections, so coverage is thin beyond this group.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
8 of 129 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | 2.75 | 76% | 41% | +35.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 2 | Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +113/ −151 | 2.45 | 70% | 44% | +26.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 3 | Roman Anthony Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | 2.22 | 65% | 40% | +25.4 pp | Over | Med |
| 4 | Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +111/ −147 | 2.32 | 67% | 44% | +23.0 pp | Over | Med |
| 5 | Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros | 1.5 | +147/ −198 | 2.04 | 60% | 38% | +22.6 pp | Over | Med |
| 6 | Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +101/ −133 | 1.90 | 57% | 47% | +10.1 pp | Over | Med |
| 7 | Luke Keaschall Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +152/ −205 | 0.92 | 23% | 37% | −13.6 pp | Under | Med |
| 8 | Victor Caratini Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | 1.5 | +144/ −193 | 0.91 | 23% | 38% | −15.2 pp | Under | Med |
| 9 | Aaron Judge | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +147/ −197 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Adolis Garcia | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Alec Burleson | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Bregman | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Andy Pages | 1.5 | −105/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Angel Martinez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Austin Riley | 1.5 | −123/ −107 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −104/ −127 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 | +104/ −138 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Brandon Marsh | 1.5 | +127/ −170 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Brent Rooker | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Brett Baty | 1.5 | +156/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Brice Turang | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Bryce Harper | 1.5 | +108/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Bryson Stott | 1.5 | +150/ −201 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 26 | CJ Abrams | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Carlos Correa | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Carson Kelly | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Casey Schmitt | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Chandler Simpson | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Christian Walker | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Corbin Carroll | 1.5 | −107/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Corey Seager | 1.5 | +118/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Dalton Rushing | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Dansby Swanson | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Darell Hernaiz | 1.5 | +135/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Daulton Varsho | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Daylen Lile | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | −155/ +117 | — | — | 57% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Edouard Julien | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Eli White | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Ezequiel Tovar | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Freddie Freeman | 1.5 | −117/ −113 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Gabriel Moreno | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Garrett Mitchell | 1.5 | +123/ −164 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Geraldo Perdomo | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Heliot Ramos | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Hunter Goodman | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Ian Happ | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Ildemaro Vargas | 1.5 | +103/ −137 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Ivan Herrera | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 58 | J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 | +155/ −208 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 59 | JJ Wetherholt | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Jackson Merrill | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Jacob Wilson | 1.5 | −108/ −122 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Jake Bauers | 1.5 | +117/ −155 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Jake Burger | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 64 | James Wood | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 65 | Jesus Sanchez | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 66 | Jo Adell | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 67 | Jordan Walker | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 68 | Jose Altuve | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 69 | Jose Fernandez | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 70 | Jose Ramirez | 1.5 | −110/ −121 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 71 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 72 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 73 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | −111/ −120 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 74 | Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 | +117/ −156 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 75 | Jung Hoo Lee | 1.5 | +155/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 76 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +107/ −142 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 77 | Ketel Marte | 2.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 78 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 79 | Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 80 | Kyle Tucker | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 81 | Lenyn Sosa | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 82 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 83 | Luis Arraez | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 84 | Luis Garcia Jr. | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 85 | Luis Rengifo | 1.5 | +129/ −172 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 86 | MJ Melendez | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 87 | Maikel Garcia | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 88 | Manny Machado | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 89 | Marcus Semien | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 90 | Mark Vientos | 1.5 | +138/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 91 | Matt Chapman | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 92 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | −140/ +106 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 93 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +109/ −145 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 94 | Max Muncy | 1.5 | +134/ −179 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 95 | Michael Busch | 1.5 | −119/ −112 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 96 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | −115/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 97 | Mickey Moniak | 1.5 | −107/ −124 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 98 | Miguel Andujar | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 99 | Mike Trout | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 100 | Moisés Ballesteros | 1.5 | −102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
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