Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
May 3, 2026 MLB Strikeouts Props
27 lines · 1 projected · Updated Jun 5, 12:45 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Only one of 27 lines has a projection attached, so nearly this entire board is flying blind. That one name is Trey Yesavage, projected at 6.5 strikeouts against a 4.5 line — a 19.8-point edge with a model over probability of 77.6%. The gap is real on paper, but confidence is flagged low, and with Poisson-per-game as the engine, tails at this threshold can flatter. If you're playing the over, the projection supports it; just know the model is working with thin coverage and the edge magnitude likely overstates certainty.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Reasonable
- Bias direction:
- No systematic bias in either direction.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Strikeouts Board
1 of 27 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Yesavage Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | −158/ +124 | 6.5 | 78% | 58% | +19.8 pp | Over | Low |
| 2 | Aaron Civale | 3.5 | −164/ +128 | — | — | 59% | — | — | — |
| 3 | Anthony Kay | 3.5 | +108/ −138 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 4 | Braxton Ashcraft | 5.5 | −124/ −103 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 5 | Chad Patrick | 3.5 | −138/ +108 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 6 | Chase Burns | 6.5 | −127/ −101 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 7 | Chris Paddack | 3.5 | −158/ +124 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 8 | Clay Holmes | 4.5 | −142/ +111 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 9 | Dustin May | 4.5 | +112/ −143 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Kochanowicz | 3.5 | −116/ −110 | — | — | 51% | — | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Leiter | 5.5 | +123/ −157 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 12 | Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 | −108/ −118 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 13 | Joe Ryan | 5.5 | +110/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Justin Wrobleski | 3.5 | −141/ +110 | — | — | 55% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Kris Bubic | 5.5 | +101/ −129 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Kyle Freeland | 3.5 | −144/ +113 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Luis Castillo | 4.5 | −127/ +100 | — | — | 53% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Matthew Boyd | 4.5 | +105/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Max Fried | 5.5 | −148/ +116 | — | — | 56% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Merrill Kelly | 3.5 | −159/ +125 | — | — | 58% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Parker Messick | 5.5 | −111/ −115 | — | — | 50% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Ranger Suarez | 4.5 | −132/ +104 | — | — | 54% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Spencer Strider | 5.5 | +104/ −132 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Steven Matz | 4.5 | +110/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Trey Gibson | 4.5 | +128/ −164 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Tyler Mahle | 4.5 | +113/ −144 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Zack Littell | 3.5 | +102/ −130 | — | — | 47% | — | — | — |
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