1 final · January 17, 2026 · Updated Jul 28, 11:18 PM ET
Every game
Miami at Indiana
Final
MiamiACC21
IndianaBig Ten27
Neutral siteDrama 16.45Hard Rock StadiumCollege Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T
Indiana win probability
Biggest swing
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at IND41, for 6 yards to the IND41 (#22 J.Sharpe), 1ST DOWN
Home win probability 98% → 19%
Standings
ACC
Team
Overall record
Conference record
Point differential
Duke
9–5
7–2
+72
Virginia
11–3
7–3
+157
Miami
13–3
6–2
+258
Georgia Tech
9–4
6–2
+93
SMU
9–4
6–2
+152
Pittsburgh
8–5
6–2
+116
NC State
8–5
5–4
+40
Louisville
9–4
4–4
+114
Wake Forest
9–4
4–4
+78
California
7–6
4–4
-24
Clemson
7–6
4–4
+87
Stanford
4–8
3–5
-124
Florida State
5–7
2–6
+132
North Carolina
4–8
2–6
-63
Virginia Tech
3–9
2–6
-105
Syracuse
3–9
1–7
-177
Boston College
2–10
1–7
-88
Big Ten
Team
Overall record
Conference record
Point differential
Indiana
16–0
11–0
+479
Ohio State
12–2
9–1
+338
Oregon
13–2
8–2
+286
Michigan
9–4
7–2
+93
USC
9–4
7–2
+166
Iowa
9–4
6–3
+172
Illinois
9–4
5–4
+75
Washington
9–4
5–4
+200
Minnesota
8–5
5–4
+1
Nebraska
7–6
4–5
+53
Northwestern
7–6
4–5
+46
Penn State
7–6
3–6
+136
UCLA
3–9
3–6
-183
Rutgers
5–7
2–7
-38
Wisconsin
4–8
2–7
-105
Maryland
4–8
1–8
-36
Michigan State
4–8
1–8
-64
Purdue
2–10
0–9
-157
Records to date from completed games · a conference record counts only games where both teams were in that conference that season.
Methodology
Final scores and the schedule are facts from the cfbfastR schedule files; conference affiliation is the affiliation AS OF that season, so a realigning team is shown in the conference it actually played in.
Win probability is cfbfastR-modeled (DERIVED), never a fact. The values shown are the HOME team's win probability at each play — already team-relative, so there is no perspective flip.
The drama index is the sum of the absolute home win-probability change across the game; it measures volatility, not quality.
The win-probability chart is down-sampled to keep the page light; the highest-leverage plays are always kept.
Standings are records to date from completed games. A conference record counts only games where both teams were in that conference that season — the only definition that survives realignment.
Play-by-play (and therefore win probability) covers 2014 onward; earlier weeks show final scores without a win-probability story.