2 finals · January 10, 2026 · Updated Jul 28, 11:17 PM ET
Every game
Miami at Ole Miss
Final
MiamiACC31
Ole MissSEC27
Neutral siteDrama 22.47State Farm StadiumCollege Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Ole Miss win probability
Biggest swing
(00:18) #38 C.Davis kickoff 65 yards to the OM 00 fair catch by #15 I.Hartrup at OM 00
Home win probability 100% → 0%
Oregon at Indiana
Final
OregonBig Ten22
IndianaBig Ten56
Neutral siteDrama 15.37Mercedes-Benz StadiumCollege Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Indiana win probability
Biggest swing
(10:47) Shotgun #22 J.Harris rush left for 4 yards gain to the Ind33 (#4 A.Fisher; #21 R.Hardy)
Home win probability 99% → 0%
Standings
ACC
Team
Overall record
Conference record
Point differential
Duke
9–5
7–2
+72
Virginia
11–3
7–3
+157
Miami
13–2
6–2
+264
Georgia Tech
9–4
6–2
+93
SMU
9–4
6–2
+152
Pittsburgh
8–5
6–2
+116
NC State
8–5
5–4
+40
Louisville
9–4
4–4
+114
Wake Forest
9–4
4–4
+78
California
7–6
4–4
-24
Clemson
7–6
4–4
+87
Stanford
4–8
3–5
-124
Florida State
5–7
2–6
+132
North Carolina
4–8
2–6
-63
Virginia Tech
3–9
2–6
-105
Syracuse
3–9
1–7
-177
Boston College
2–10
1–7
-88
Big Ten
Team
Overall record
Conference record
Point differential
Indiana
15–0
11–0
+473
Ohio State
12–2
9–1
+338
Oregon
13–2
8–2
+286
Michigan
9–4
7–2
+93
USC
9–4
7–2
+166
Iowa
9–4
6–3
+172
Illinois
9–4
5–4
+75
Washington
9–4
5–4
+200
Minnesota
8–5
5–4
+1
Nebraska
7–6
4–5
+53
Northwestern
7–6
4–5
+46
Penn State
7–6
3–6
+136
UCLA
3–9
3–6
-183
Rutgers
5–7
2–7
-38
Wisconsin
4–8
2–7
-105
Maryland
4–8
1–8
-36
Michigan State
4–8
1–8
-64
Purdue
2–10
0–9
-157
SEC
Team
Overall record
Conference record
Point differential
Ole Miss
13–2
8–1
+238
Georgia
12–2
8–2
+203
Alabama
11–4
8–2
+155
Texas A&M
11–2
7–1
+166
Texas
10–3
6–2
+132
Vanderbilt
10–3
6–2
+203
Oklahoma
10–3
6–3
+140
Missouri
8–5
4–4
+147
Tennessee
8–5
4–4
+142
LSU
7–6
3–5
+39
Kentucky
5–7
2–6
-41
Florida
4–8
2–6
-29
Auburn
5–7
1–7
+73
Mississippi State
5–8
1–7
+2
South Carolina
4–8
1–7
+7
Arkansas
2–10
0–8
-11
Records to date from completed games · a conference record counts only games where both teams were in that conference that season.
Methodology
Final scores and the schedule are facts from the cfbfastR schedule files; conference affiliation is the affiliation AS OF that season, so a realigning team is shown in the conference it actually played in.
Win probability is cfbfastR-modeled (DERIVED), never a fact. The values shown are the HOME team's win probability at each play — already team-relative, so there is no perspective flip.
The drama index is the sum of the absolute home win-probability change across the game; it measures volatility, not quality.
The win-probability chart is down-sampled to keep the page light; the highest-leverage plays are always kept.
Standings are records to date from completed games. A conference record counts only games where both teams were in that conference that season — the only definition that survives realignment.
Play-by-play (and therefore win probability) covers 2014 onward; earlier weeks show final scores without a win-probability story.