College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 14 Betting Lines

67 games priced · 67 graded · November 29, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:25 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 27–36–4; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 32–31–4; 18 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 32–35
Average total: 51.5; avg spread 9.7

Our model against the market

Model error: 12.62; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 12.57; same games
Model ATS: 36–27–4; 67 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

Florida State at Florida

Final

Florida State 21 · Florida 40

Upset

Spread: Florida State −1.5; Florida +1.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −112 / −108; Florida 50% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.4; +2.9 vs market · leans Florida

Spread moved +4.0 (-2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (50.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida covered · by 20.5 · 61 points — over

Kentucky at Louisville

Final

Kentucky 0 · Louisville 41

Upset

Spread: Kentucky −1.5; Louisville +1.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −115 / −105; Louisville 49% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.2; +6.7 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved +6.0 (-4.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (47.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisville covered · by 42.5 · 41 points — under

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State

Final

Western Kentucky 34 · Jacksonville State 37

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Western Kentucky −1.5; Jacksonville State +1.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; Jacksonville State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.5; +1.0 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved -1.0 (2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (54.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Jacksonville State covered · by 4.5 · 71 points — over

Boise State at Utah State

Final

Boise State 25 · Utah State 24

Conference game

Spread: Boise State −1.5; Utah State +1.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −122 / +105; Utah State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.0; -4.5 vs market · leans Boise State

Spread moved -1.5 (3.0 → 1.5, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (55.5 → 54.5, 3 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 0.5 · 49 points — under

San Diego State at New Mexico

Final

San Diego State 17 · New Mexico 23

Conference gameUpset

Spread: San Diego State −1.5; New Mexico +1.5; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −115 / −105; New Mexico 49% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.8; +0.7 vs market · leans New Mexico

Spread moved +0.0 (1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (41.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico covered · by 7.5 · 40 points — under

Arkansas State at App State

Final

Arkansas State 30 · App State 29

Conference game

Spread: Arkansas State −1.5; App State +1.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −115 / −105; App State 49% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.5; +4.0 vs market · leans App State

Spread moved +3.0 (-1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (56.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

App State covered · by 0.5 · 59 points — over

Arizona at Arizona State

Final

Arizona 23 · Arizona State 7

Conference game

Spread: Arizona −2.0; Arizona State +2.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −122 / +102; Arizona State 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.6; +3.6 vs market · leans Arizona State

Spread moved +0.5 (1.5 → 2.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (48.0 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona covered · by 14.0 · 30 points — under

Clemson at South Carolina

Final

Clemson 28 · South Carolina 14

Upset

Spread: South Carolina −2.5; South Carolina -2.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +114 / −135; South Carolina 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.9; +1.4 vs market · leans South Carolina

Spread moved -5.0 (2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (46.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Clemson covered · by 16.5 · 42 points — under

Vanderbilt at Tennessee

Final

Vanderbilt 45 · Tennessee 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Tennessee −2.5; Tennessee -2.5; 3 books
Total: 66.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +116 / −133; Tennessee 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.0; -0.5 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved +1.0 (-3.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (64.5 → 66.5, 2 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 23.5 · 69 points — over

Texas A&M at Texas

Final

Texas A&M 17 · Texas 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Texas A&M −2.5; Texas +2.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −140 / +120; Texas 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.7; +1.8 vs market · leans Texas

Spread moved +0.0 (2.5 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (51.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas covered · by 12.5 · 44 points — under

Wisconsin at Minnesota

Final

Wisconsin 7 · Minnesota 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Wisconsin −2.5; Minnesota +2.5; 3 books
Total: 38.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −142 / +120; Minnesota 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.3; +2.8 vs market · leans Minnesota

Spread moved +5.0 (-2.5 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (37.5 → 38.5, 2 books)

Result

Minnesota covered · by 12.5 · 24 points — under

Wake Forest at Duke

Final

Wake Forest 32 · Duke 49

Conference game

Spread: Duke −2.5; Duke -2.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Duke 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Duke

Spread moved +1.0 (-3.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (54.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Duke covered · by 14.5 · 81 points — over

Houston at Baylor

Final

Houston 31 · Baylor 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Baylor −2.5; Baylor -2.5; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −140; Baylor 56% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.9; -0.6 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +0.0 (-2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (60.5 → 57.0, 2 books)

Result

Houston covered · by 9.5 · 55 points — under

Kennesaw State at Liberty

Final

Kennesaw State 48 · Liberty 42

Conference game

Spread: Kennesaw State −2.5; Liberty +2.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −142 / +120; Liberty 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.9; +3.4 vs market · leans Liberty

Spread moved +0.5 (2.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (54.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 3.5 · 90 points — over

Louisiana Tech at Missouri State

Final

Louisiana Tech 42 · Missouri State 30

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Missouri State −2.5; Missouri State -2.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +114 / −135; Missouri State 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.7; -1.8 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved +0.5 (-3.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -6.5 (51.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana Tech covered · by 14.5 · 72 points — over

Air Force at Colorado State

Final

Air Force 42 · Colorado State 21

Conference game

Spread: Air Force −2.5; Colorado State +2.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −135 / +114; Colorado State 45% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.3; +1.2 vs market · leans Colorado State

Spread moved +0.0 (2.5 → 2.5, 2 books)

Total moved -2.0 (49.5 → 47.5, 3 books)

Result

Air Force covered · by 18.5 · 63 points — over

Boston College at Syracuse

Final

Boston College 34 · Syracuse 12

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Boston College −3.0; Syracuse +3.0; 3 books
Total: 54.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −145 / +125; Syracuse 43% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.4; +9.4 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved +0.0 (3.0 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (53.0 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Boston College covered · by 19.0 · 46 points — under

Cincinnati at TCU

Final

Cincinnati 23 · TCU 45

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: TCU −3.0; TCU -3.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +125 / −148; TCU 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.6; +2.6 vs market · leans TCU

Spread moved +1.5 (-4.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (58.0 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

TCU covered · by 19.0 · 68 points — over

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State

Final

Middle Tennessee 31 · New Mexico State 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: New Mexico State −3.5; New Mexico State -3.5; 3 books
Total: 52.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +136 / −162; New Mexico State 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.3; +2.8 vs market · leans New Mexico State

Spread moved +1.0 (-4.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (54.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Middle Tennessee covered · by 10.5 · 55 points — over

Fresno State at San José State

Final

Fresno State 41 · San José State 14

Conference game

Spread: Fresno State −3.5; San José State +3.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; San José State 40% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.8; -0.3 vs market · leans Fresno State

Spread moved +1.0 (2.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (46.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Fresno State covered · by 23.5 · 55 points — over

Navy at Memphis

Final

Navy 28 · Memphis 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Memphis −3.5; Memphis -3.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −175; Memphis 61% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.3; +6.8 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved +2.0 (-5.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (57.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Navy covered · by 14.5 · 45 points — under

Maryland at Michigan State

Final

Maryland 28 · Michigan State 38

Neutral siteConference game

Spread: Michigan State −4.0; Michigan State -4.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −185; Michigan State 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.4; -5.4 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +0.5 (-4.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (47.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 6.0 · 66 points — over

Missouri at Arkansas

Final

Missouri 31 · Arkansas 17

Conference game

Spread: Missouri −4.5; Arkansas +4.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −205 / +170; Arkansas 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.6; +1.9 vs market · leans Arkansas

Spread moved +2.0 (2.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (57.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Missouri covered · by 9.5 · 48 points — under

UTEP at Delaware

Final

UTEP 31 · Delaware 61

Conference game

Spread: Delaware −4.5; Delaware -4.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −195; Delaware 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.8; -0.7 vs market · leans UTEP

Spread moved +0.5 (-5.0 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (54.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Delaware covered · by 25.5 · 92 points — over

Kent State at Northern Illinois

Final

Kent State 35 · Northern Illinois 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Northern Illinois −5.0; Northern Illinois -5.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +170 / −205; Northern Illinois 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.6; +3.6 vs market · leans Northern Illinois

Spread moved -0.5 (-4.5 → -5.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (44.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Kent State covered · by 9.0 · 66 points — over

Iowa at Nebraska

Final

Iowa 40 · Nebraska 16

Conference game

Spread: Iowa −5.5; Nebraska +5.5; 3 books
Total: 38.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −225 / +190; Nebraska 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.0; -0.6 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved +1.5 (4.0 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (39.5 → 38.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 18.5 · 56 points — over

Oregon at Washington

Final

Oregon 26 · Washington 14

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −6.5; Washington +6.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −260 / +220; Washington 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.9; +0.6 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved -1.0 (7.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (52.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Oregon covered · by 5.5 · 40 points — under

Miami at Pittsburgh

Final

Miami 38 · Pittsburgh 7

Conference game

Spread: Miami −6.5; Pittsburgh +6.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +210; Pittsburgh 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.4; +0.1 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved -0.5 (7.0 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (51.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Miami covered · by 24.5 · 45 points — under

Alabama at Auburn

Final

Alabama 27 · Auburn 20

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Alabama −7.0; Auburn +7.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −270 / +220; Auburn 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.0; +3.0 vs market · leans Auburn

Spread moved +1.5 (5.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (48.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 47 points — under

Northwestern at Illinois

Final

Northwestern 13 · Illinois 20

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Illinois −7.0; Illinois -7.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +220 / −270; Illinois 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.1; +3.1 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.0 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (47.5 → 44.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 33 points — under

North Carolina at NC State

Final

North Carolina 19 · NC State 42

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: NC State −7.0; NC State -7.0; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +225 / −275; NC State 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.9; +2.9 vs market · leans NC State

Spread moved +0.5 (-7.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (47.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

NC State covered · by 16.0 · 61 points — over

Troy at Southern Miss

Final

Troy 28 · Southern Miss 18

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Southern Miss −7.0; Southern Miss -7.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +205 / −245; Southern Miss 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.6; -5.4 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved -0.5 (-6.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (49.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 17.0 · 46 points — under

East Carolina at Florida Atlantic

Final

East Carolina 42 · Florida Atlantic 3

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: East Carolina −7.0; Florida Atlantic +7.0; 3 books
Total: 66.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +210; Florida Atlantic 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.7; -3.7 vs market · leans East Carolina

Spread moved +0.5 (6.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (66.5 → 66.0, 2 books)

Result

East Carolina covered · by 32.0 · 45 points — under

Ohio at Buffalo

Final

Ohio 31 · Buffalo 26

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Ohio −7.0; Buffalo +7.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +210; Buffalo 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.8; -0.8 vs market · leans Ohio

Spread moved +1.0 (6.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (47.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Buffalo covered · by 2.0 · 57 points — over

Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Final

Ole Miss 38 · Mississippi State 19

Conference game

Spread: Ole Miss −7.5; Mississippi State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −279 / +235; Mississippi State 29% to win; 3 books
Our model: +10.4; -2.9 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved -2.0 (9.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (59.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Ole Miss covered · by 11.5 · 57 points — under

UNLV at Nevada

Final

UNLV 42 · Nevada 17

Conference game

Spread: UNLV −7.5; Nevada +7.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −310 / +250; Nevada 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.1; -3.6 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved -2.0 (9.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

UNLV covered · by 17.5 · 59 points — over

Virginia Tech at Virginia

Final

Virginia Tech 7 · Virginia 27

Conference game

Spread: Virginia −8.5; Virginia -8.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; Virginia 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.1; +3.5 vs market · leans Virginia

Spread moved +2.0 (-10.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Virginia covered · by 11.5 · 34 points — under

Wyoming at Hawai'i

Final

Wyoming 7 · Hawai'i 27

Conference game

Spread: Hawai'i −8.5; Hawai'i -8.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +290 / −380; Hawai'i 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.0; -1.5 vs market · leans Wyoming

Spread moved +2.0 (-10.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (44.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Hawai'i covered · by 11.5 · 34 points — under

Army at UTSA

Final

Army 27 · UTSA 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UTSA −8.5; UTSA -8.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +260 / −320; UTSA 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.3; -3.2 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved -2.0 (-6.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (51.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Army covered · by 11.5 · 51 points — over

Ohio State at Michigan

Final

Ohio State 27 · Michigan 9

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −9.5; Michigan +9.5; 3 books
Total: 43.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −400 / +305; Michigan 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +12.7; -3.1 vs market · leans Ohio State

Spread moved +4.0 (5.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.5 (47.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 8.5 · 36 points — under

South Alabama at Texas State

Final

South Alabama 26 · Texas State 49

Conference game

Spread: Texas State −9.5; Texas State -9.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; Texas State 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.0; +0.5 vs market · leans Texas State

Spread moved -0.5 (-9.0 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (63.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas State covered · by 13.5 · 75 points — over

UAB at Tulsa

Final

UAB 31 · Tulsa 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Tulsa −9.5; Tulsa -9.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +260 / −325; Tulsa 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.3; -5.2 vs market · leans UAB

Spread moved -2.0 (-7.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (59.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

UAB covered · by 16.5 · 55 points — under

Utah at Kansas

Final

Utah 31 · Kansas 21

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Utah −10.0; Kansas +10.0; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −450 / +340; Kansas 22% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.2; -3.2 vs market · leans Utah

Spread moved -3.5 (13.5 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (58.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Push · 52 points — under

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan

Final

Western Michigan 31 · Eastern Michigan 21

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Western Michigan −10.0; Eastern Michigan +10.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −380 / +300; Eastern Michigan 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.9; +2.1 vs market · leans Eastern Michigan

Spread moved +3.5 (6.5 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.5 (45.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 52 points — over

Florida International at Sam Houston

Final

Florida International 56 · Sam Houston 16

Neutral siteConference game

Spread: Florida International −10.5; Sam Houston +10.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −410 / +320; Sam Houston 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.9; +1.6 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved +0.0 (10.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida International covered · by 29.5 · 72 points — over

Georgia Southern at Marshall

Final

Georgia Southern 24 · Marshall 19

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Marshall −10.5; Marshall -10.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −425; Marshall 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.3; +0.8 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved -4.0 (-6.5 → -10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (60.5 → 61.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Southern covered · by 15.5 · 43 points — under

UL Monroe at Louisiana

Final

UL Monroe 27 · Louisiana 30

Conference game

Spread: Louisiana −11.0; Louisiana -11.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −485; Louisiana 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.5; +2.5 vs market · leans Louisiana

Spread moved +2.5 (-13.5 → -11.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (48.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

UL Monroe covered · by 8.0 · 57 points — over

LSU at Oklahoma

Final

LSU 13 · Oklahoma 17

Conference game

Spread: Oklahoma −11.5; Oklahoma -11.5; 3 books
Total: 36.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +380 / −500; Oklahoma 80% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.6; -3.0 vs market · leans LSU

Spread moved -1.5 (-10.0 → -11.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (38.5 → 36.0, 2 books)

Result

LSU covered · by 7.5 · 30 points — under

Toledo at Central Michigan

Final

Toledo 21 · Central Michigan 3

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −11.5; Central Michigan +11.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +330; Central Michigan 22% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.7; +1.8 vs market · leans Central Michigan

Spread moved +2.0 (9.5 → 11.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (44.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Toledo covered · by 6.5 · 24 points — under

SMU at California

Final

SMU 35 · California 38

Conference gameUpset

Spread: SMU −13.5; California +13.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −550 / +400; California 19% to win; 3 books
Our model: +15.2; -1.7 vs market · leans SMU

Spread moved +3.0 (10.5 → 13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (53.0 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

California covered · by 16.5 · 73 points — over

Penn State at Rutgers

Final

Penn State 40 · Rutgers 36

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Penn State −14.0; Rutgers +14.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −600 / +440; Rutgers 18% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.7; +2.3 vs market · leans Rutgers

Spread moved +3.5 (10.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (55.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Rutgers covered · by 10.0 · 76 points — over

Oregon State at Washington State

Final

Oregon State 8 · Washington State 32

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Washington State −14.0; Washington State -14.0; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +450 / −650; Washington State 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.1; +3.1 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved -1.5 (-12.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (43.5 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 10.0 · 40 points — under

Iowa State at Oklahoma State

Final

Iowa State 20 · Oklahoma State 13

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Iowa State −14.0; Oklahoma State +14.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −625 / +450; Oklahoma State 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.6; -4.6 vs market · leans Iowa State

Spread moved -0.5 (14.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (49.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma State covered · by 7.0 · 33 points — under

Bowling Green at Massachusetts

Final

Bowling Green 45 · Massachusetts 14

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Bowling Green −14.0; Massachusetts +14.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −700 / +450; Massachusetts 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +16.0; -2.0 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved -1.5 (15.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (44.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Bowling Green covered · by 17.0 · 59 points — over

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Final

Georgia 16 · Georgia Tech 9

Neutral site

Spread: Georgia −16.5; Georgia Tech +16.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −725 / +525; Georgia Tech 15% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.1; +3.4 vs market · leans Georgia Tech

Spread moved +3.5 (13.0 → 16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +6.0 (53.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Tech covered · by 9.5 · 25 points — under

Colorado at Kansas State

Final

Colorado 14 · Kansas State 24

Conference game

Spread: Kansas State −16.5; Kansas State -16.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +600 / −950; Kansas State 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.1; -4.5 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved +0.5 (-17.0 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (51.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Colorado covered · by 6.5 · 38 points — under

Ball State at Miami (OH)

Final

Ball State 24 · Miami (OH) 45

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −16.5; Miami (OH) -16.5; 3 books
Total: 40.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Miami (OH) 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.2; +0.7 vs market · leans Miami (OH)

Spread moved +1.0 (-17.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (41.5 → 40.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 4.5 · 69 points — over

UCF at BYU

Final

UCF 21 · BYU 41

Conference game

Spread: BYU −17.5; BYU -17.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +725 / −1300; BYU 88% to win; 3 books
Our model: -19.6; +2.1 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +1.0 (-18.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (47.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 2.5 · 62 points — over

Temple at North Texas

Final

Temple 25 · North Texas 52

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −20.5; North Texas -20.5; 3 books
Total: 65.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +800 / −1350; North Texas 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.5; +1.0 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved -1.0 (-19.5 → -20.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (64.5 → 65.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 6.5 · 77 points — over

UCLA at USC

Final

UCLA 10 · USC 29

Conference game

Spread: USC −21.5; USC -21.5; 3 books
Total: 59.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +900 / −1800; USC 90% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.7; +0.2 vs market · leans USC

Spread moved -1.0 (-20.5 → -21.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (60.5 → 59.0, 2 books)

Result

UCLA covered · by 2.5 · 39 points — under

James Madison at Coastal Carolina

Final

James Madison 59 · Coastal Carolina 10

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −24.0; Coastal Carolina +24.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2800 / +1300; Coastal Carolina 7% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.6; +5.4 vs market · leans Coastal Carolina

Spread moved +2.5 (21.5 → 24.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

James Madison covered · by 25.0 · 69 points — over

Texas Tech at West Virginia

Final

Texas Tech 49 · West Virginia 0

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −24.5; West Virginia +24.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −2200 / +1100; West Virginia 8% to win; 3 books
Our model: +19.7; +4.8 vs market · leans West Virginia

Spread moved +4.0 (20.5 → 24.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (52.5 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 24.5 · 49 points — under

Indiana at Purdue

Final

Indiana 56 · Purdue 3

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −28.5; Purdue +28.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −5000 / +2000; Purdue 5% to win; 2 books
Our model: +25.1; +3.4 vs market · leans Purdue

Spread moved +0.0 (28.5 → 28.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (52.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Indiana covered · by 24.5 · 59 points — over

Georgia State at Old Dominion

Final

Georgia State 10 · Old Dominion 27

Conference game

Spread: Old Dominion −28.5; Old Dominion -28.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1800 / −6000; Old Dominion 95% to win; 3 books
Our model: -25.3; -3.2 vs market · leans Georgia State

Spread moved -2.0 (-26.5 → -28.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (58.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia State covered · by 11.5 · 37 points — under

Rice at South Florida

Final

Rice 3 · South Florida 52

Conference game

Spread: South Florida −28.5; South Florida -28.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1800 / −6000; South Florida 95% to win; 3 books
Our model: -27.0; -1.5 vs market · leans Rice

Spread moved -2.5 (-26.0 → -28.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (59.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

South Florida covered · by 20.5 · 55 points — under

Charlotte at Tulane

Final

Charlotte 0 · Tulane 27

Conference game

Spread: Tulane −31.0; Tulane -31.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2200 / −8000; Tulane 96% to win; 1 book
Our model: -28.3; -2.7 vs market · leans Charlotte

Spread moved -1.5 (-29.5 → -31.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Charlotte covered · by 4.0 · 27 points — under

Notre Dame at Stanford

Final

Notre Dame 49 · Stanford 20

Spread: Notre Dame −32.5; Stanford +32.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −9000 / +3000; Stanford 3% to win; 2 books
Our model: +27.2; +5.3 vs market · leans Stanford

Spread moved +0.0 (32.5 → 32.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (51.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Stanford covered · by 3.5 · 69 points — over

Biggest upsets

California beat SMU19% to win
Georgia Southern beat Marshall23% to win
UAB beat Tulsa27% to win
Army beat UTSA27% to win
Troy beat Southern Miss32% to win

Where we disagreed most

Boston College at Syracuse+9.4 pts toward Syracuse
Navy at Memphis+6.8 pts toward Memphis
Kentucky at Louisville+6.7 pts toward Louisville
Troy at Southern Miss-5.4 pts toward Troy
James Madison at Coastal Carolina+5.4 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Coverage

67 games in this week's window · 67 with a spread · 67 with a total · 67 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →