College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 13 Betting Lines

64 games priced · 64 graded · November 22, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:26 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 30–33–1; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 35–28–1; 14 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 30–34
Average total: 52.1; avg spread 12.7

Our model against the market

Model error: 12.41; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 12.28; same games
Model ATS: 29–30–1; 60 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

TCU at Houston

Final

TCU 17 · Houston 14

Conference game

Spread: TCU −1.5; Houston +1.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / −110; Houston 49% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.4; +1.1 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved +4.0 (-2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (54.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

TCU covered · by 1.5 · 31 points — under

Liberty at Louisiana Tech

Final

Liberty 28 · Louisiana Tech 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Liberty −1.5; Louisiana Tech +1.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / −105; Louisiana Tech 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.2; +8.7 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved +1.5 (0.0 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (45.0 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana Tech covered · by 7.5 · 62 points — over

Utah State at Fresno State

Final

Utah State 28 · Fresno State 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Fresno State −1.5; Fresno State -1.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Fresno State 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.4; +0.9 vs market · leans Fresno State

Spread moved +1.0 (-2.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (50.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 12.5 · 45 points — under

East Carolina at UTSA

Final

East Carolina 24 · UTSA 58

Conference gameUpset

Spread: East Carolina −2.0; UTSA +2.0; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −118 / −102; UTSA 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.0; -2.0 vs market · leans East Carolina

Spread moved -1.5 (3.5 → 2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (61.5 → 61.5, 2 books)

Result

UTSA covered · by 36.0 · 82 points — over

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech

Final

Pittsburgh 42 · Georgia Tech 28

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Georgia Tech −2.5; Georgia Tech -2.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +115 / −135; Georgia Tech 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.3; -1.2 vs market · leans Pittsburgh

Spread moved +0.0 (-2.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (61.5 → 60.0, 2 books)

Result

Pittsburgh covered · by 16.5 · 70 points — over

BYU at Cincinnati

Final

BYU 26 · Cincinnati 14

Conference game

Spread: BYU −2.5; Cincinnati +2.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −142 / +120; Cincinnati 44% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.9; -4.4 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved +0.5 (2.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (53.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

BYU covered · by 9.5 · 40 points — under

Jacksonville State at Florida International

Final

Jacksonville State 21 · Florida International 27

Conference game

Spread: Florida International −2.5; Florida International -2.5; 3 books
Total: 56.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; Florida International 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.7; -3.2 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (55.5 → 56.0, 2 books)

Result

Florida International covered · by 3.5 · 48 points — under

Hawai'i at UNLV

Final

Hawai'i 10 · UNLV 38

Conference game

Spread: UNLV −2.5; UNLV -2.5; 3 books
Total: 64.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +115 / −135; UNLV 55% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.8; +4.3 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved +0.5 (-3.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (64.5 → 64.5, 2 books)

Result

UNLV covered · by 25.5 · 48 points — under

Louisiana at Arkansas State

Final

Louisiana 34 · Arkansas State 30

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Arkansas State −2.5; Arkansas State -2.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +110 / −130; Arkansas State 54% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.6; -1.9 vs market · leans Louisiana

Spread moved +1.0 (-3.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (53.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana covered · by 6.5 · 64 points — over

Southern Miss at South Alabama

Final

Southern Miss 35 · South Alabama 42

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Southern Miss −2.5; South Alabama +2.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −125 / +105; South Alabama 47% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.4; +3.9 vs market · leans South Alabama

Spread moved -0.5 (3.0 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (55.5 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

South Alabama covered · by 9.5 · 77 points — over

Akron at Bowling Green

Final

Akron 19 · Bowling Green 16

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Bowling Green −2.5; Bowling Green -2.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −140; Bowling Green 56% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.2; +3.7 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved +2.0 (-4.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (47.0 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Akron covered · by 5.5 · 35 points — under

Miami (OH) at Buffalo

Final

Miami (OH) 37 · Buffalo 20

Conference game

Spread: Miami (OH) −2.5; Buffalo +2.5; 3 books
Total: 38.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −130 / +110; Buffalo 46% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.6; -1.1 vs market · leans Miami (OH)

Spread moved +5.0 (-2.5 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (39.5 → 38.5, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 14.5 · 57 points — over

Tennessee at Florida

Final

Tennessee 31 · Florida 11

Conference game

Spread: Tennessee −3.5; Florida +3.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −175 / +145; Florida 39% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.6; -1.1 vs market · leans Tennessee

Spread moved +0.0 (3.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (57.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Tennessee covered · by 16.5 · 42 points — under

Kansas at Iowa State

Final

Kansas 14 · Iowa State 38

Conference game

Spread: Iowa State −3.5; Iowa State -3.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +140 / −165; Iowa State 60% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.6; +3.1 vs market · leans Iowa State

Spread moved +0.5 (-4.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (54.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa State covered · by 20.5 · 52 points — under

New Mexico at Air Force

Final

New Mexico 20 · Air Force 3

Conference game

Spread: New Mexico −3.5; Air Force +3.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −160 / +135; Air Force 41% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.9; +2.6 vs market · leans Air Force

Spread moved +1.5 (2.0 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.5 (58.0 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico covered · by 13.5 · 23 points — under

Minnesota at Northwestern

Final

Minnesota 35 · Northwestern 38

Neutral siteConference game

Spread: Northwestern −4.0; Northwestern -4.0; 3 books
Total: 41.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; Northwestern 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.8; -1.2 vs market · leans Minnesota

Spread moved +0.0 (-4.0 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (40.5 → 41.0, 2 books)

Result

Minnesota covered · by 1.0 · 73 points — over

Louisville at SMU

Final

Louisville 6 · SMU 38

Conference game

Spread: SMU −4.0; SMU -4.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +140 / −165; SMU 60% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.7; -0.3 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved -1.0 (-3.0 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (53.0 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

SMU covered · by 28.0 · 44 points — under

New Mexico State at UTEP

Final

New Mexico State 34 · UTEP 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UTEP −4.0; UTEP -4.0; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −190; UTEP 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; +1.0 vs market · leans UTEP

Spread moved -1.0 (-3.0 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (45.0 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico State covered · by 7.0 · 65 points — over

Marshall at App State

Final

Marshall 24 · App State 26

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Marshall −4.0; App State +4.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +155; App State 38% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.4; -2.4 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +0.5 (3.5 → 4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (53.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

App State covered · by 6.0 · 50 points — under

Missouri at Oklahoma

Final

Missouri 6 · Oklahoma 17

Conference game

Spread: Oklahoma −4.5; Oklahoma -4.5; 3 books
Total: 42.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; Oklahoma 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.7; +2.2 vs market · leans Oklahoma

Spread moved +5.0 (-9.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (42.5 → 42.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma covered · by 6.5 · 23 points — under

California at Stanford

Final

California 10 · Stanford 31

Conference gameUpset

Spread: California −4.5; Stanford +4.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +155; Stanford 38% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.3; +3.2 vs market · leans Stanford

Spread moved +1.5 (3.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (49.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Stanford covered · by 25.5 · 41 points — under

UConn at Florida Atlantic

Final

UConn 48 · Florida Atlantic 45

Spread: UConn −6.0; Florida Atlantic +6.0; 3 books
Total: 64.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −230 / +190; Florida Atlantic 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.2; -2.2 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved -1.5 (7.5 → 6.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (67.5 → 64.0, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 3.0 · 93 points — over

Florida State at NC State

Final

Florida State 11 · NC State 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Florida State −6.5; NC State +6.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +205; NC State 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.8; +3.7 vs market · leans NC State

Spread moved +2.0 (4.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (61.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

NC State covered · by 16.5 · 32 points — under

Baylor at Arizona

Final

Baylor 17 · Arizona 41

Conference game

Spread: Arizona −6.5; Arizona -6.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +195 / −238; Arizona 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.9; +0.4 vs market · leans Arizona

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (62.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona covered · by 17.5 · 58 points — under

Missouri State at Kennesaw State

Final

Missouri State 34 · Kennesaw State 41

Conference game

Spread: Kennesaw State −6.5; Kennesaw State -6.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +185 / −225; Kennesaw State 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.3; -4.2 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.5 (58.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 0.5 · 75 points — over

Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee

Final

Sam Houston 17 · Middle Tennessee 31

Conference game

Spread: Middle Tennessee −6.5; Middle Tennessee -6.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +200 / −245; Middle Tennessee 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.2; -6.3 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (53.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Middle Tennessee covered · by 7.5 · 48 points — under

Nevada at Wyoming

Final

Nevada 13 · Wyoming 7

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Wyoming −6.5; Wyoming -6.5; 3 books
Total: 39.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +190 / −230; Wyoming 67% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.2; +1.7 vs market · leans Wyoming

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (41.5 → 39.5, 2 books)

Result

Nevada covered · by 12.5 · 20 points — under

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Final

Kentucky 17 · Vanderbilt 45

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Vanderbilt −7.0; Vanderbilt -7.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −298; Vanderbilt 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.3; +2.3 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved +3.0 (-10.0 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (52.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 21.0 · 62 points — over

Nebraska at Penn State

Final

Nebraska 10 · Penn State 37

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Penn State −7.0; Penn State -7.0; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +230 / −285; Penn State 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.0; +4.0 vs market · leans Penn State

Spread moved +2.5 (-9.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (43.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Penn State covered · by 20.0 · 47 points — over

Duke at North Carolina

Final

Duke 32 · North Carolina 25

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Duke −7.0; North Carolina +7.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +205; North Carolina 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.8; +0.2 vs market · leans North Carolina

Spread moved +5.5 (1.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (51.5 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 57 points — over

Arizona State at Colorado

Final

Arizona State 42 · Colorado 17

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Arizona State −7.0; Colorado +7.0; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −265 / +215; Colorado 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.1; +2.9 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved -0.5 (7.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (48.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Arizona State covered · by 18.0 · 59 points — over

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois

Final

Western Michigan 35 · Northern Illinois 19

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Western Michigan −7.0; Northern Illinois +7.0; 3 books
Total: 39.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −278 / +225; Northern Illinois 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.4; +1.6 vs market · leans Northern Illinois

Spread moved +1.0 (6.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (38.5 → 38.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Michigan covered · by 9.0 · 54 points — over

Tulane at Temple

Final

Tulane 37 · Temple 13

Conference game

Spread: Tulane −7.5; Temple +7.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −300 / +250; Temple 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.9; -0.4 vs market · leans Tulane

Spread moved -1.0 (8.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (54.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Tulane covered · by 16.5 · 50 points — under

Central Michigan at Kent State

Final

Central Michigan 28 · Kent State 16

Conference game

Spread: Central Michigan −7.5; Kent State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −305 / +245; Kent State 28% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.1; +0.4 vs market · leans Kent State

Spread moved +0.0 (7.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (46.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 4.5 · 44 points — under

Arkansas at Texas

Final

Arkansas 37 · Texas 52

Conference game

Spread: Texas −8.5; Texas -8.5; 3 books
Total: 58.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +270 / −340; Texas 74% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.6; +2.1 vs market · leans Texas

Spread moved +2.0 (-10.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (56.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Texas covered · by 6.5 · 89 points — over

Illinois at Wisconsin

Final

Illinois 10 · Wisconsin 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Illinois −8.5; Wisconsin +8.5; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −345 / +275; Wisconsin 26% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.1; -0.6 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved -1.0 (9.5 → 8.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (41.0 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

Wisconsin covered · by 25.5 · 37 points — under

Georgia State at Troy

Final

Georgia State 19 · Troy 31

Conference game

Spread: Troy −9.5; Troy -9.5; 3 books
Total: 51.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +290 / −380; Troy 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.0; +3.5 vs market · leans Troy

Spread moved +1.0 (-10.5 → -9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (51.0 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Troy covered · by 2.5 · 50 points — under

San José State at San Diego State

Final

San José State 3 · San Diego State 25

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: San Diego State −10.0; San Diego State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −400; San Diego State 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.1; +6.1 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +2.0 (-12.0 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (49.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 12.0 · 28 points — under

Old Dominion at Georgia Southern

Final

Old Dominion 45 · Georgia Southern 10

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Old Dominion −10.0; Georgia Southern +10.0; 3 books
Total: 62.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −400 / +300; Georgia Southern 24% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.6; +0.4 vs market · leans Georgia Southern

Spread moved +0.0 (10.0 → 10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (62.0 → 62.0, 2 books)

Result

Old Dominion covered · by 25.0 · 55 points — under

Tulsa at Army

Final

Tulsa 26 · Army 25

Conference gameUpsetOn the 10

Spread: Army −10.0; Army -10.0; 3 books
Total: 43.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −400; Army 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -17.0; +7.0 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (46.5 → 43.5, 2 books)

Result

Tulsa covered · by 11.0 · 51 points — over

Washington at UCLA

Final

Washington 48 · UCLA 14

Conference game

Spread: Washington −10.5; UCLA +10.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +330; UCLA 22% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.6; -1.1 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved +0.0 (10.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (51.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Washington covered · by 23.5 · 62 points — over

USC at Oregon

Final

USC 27 · Oregon 42

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −11.0; Oregon -11.0; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +320 / −410; Oregon 77% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.8; -2.2 vs market · leans USC

Spread moved +1.0 (-12.0 → -11.0, 3 books)

Total moved +3.5 (55.5 → 59.0, 2 books)

Result

Oregon covered · by 4.0 · 69 points — over

Oklahoma State at UCF

Final

Oklahoma State 14 · UCF 17

Conference game

Spread: UCF −13.5; UCF -13.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +425 / −600; UCF 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.4; +1.9 vs market · leans UCF

Spread moved +0.5 (-14.0 → -13.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (47.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma State covered · by 10.5 · 31 points — under

Michigan at Maryland

Final

Michigan 45 · Maryland 20

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Michigan −14.0; Maryland +14.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −575 / +400; Maryland 19% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.7; +7.3 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +2.5 (11.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (45.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Michigan covered · by 11.0 · 65 points — over

Washington State at James Madison

Final

Washington State 20 · James Madison 24

Spread: James Madison −15.5; James Madison -15.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +470 / −650; James Madison 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.0; -3.5 vs market · leans Washington State

Spread moved -2.0 (-13.5 → -15.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (41.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 11.5 · 44 points — under

Michigan State at Iowa

Final

Michigan State 17 · Iowa 20

Conference game

Spread: Iowa −17.5; Iowa -17.5; 3 books
Total: 43.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Iowa 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -20.3; +2.8 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved -1.0 (-16.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (42.5 → 43.0, 2 books)

Result

Michigan State covered · by 14.5 · 37 points — under

Miami at Virginia Tech

Final

Miami 34 · Virginia Tech 17

Conference game

Spread: Miami −17.5; Virginia Tech +17.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −1000 / +600; Virginia Tech 14% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.2; -0.7 vs market · leans Miami

Spread moved +1.0 (16.5 → 17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (48.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Virginia Tech covered · by 0.5 · 51 points — over

Delaware at Wake Forest

Final

Delaware 14 · Wake Forest 52

Spread: Wake Forest −17.5; Wake Forest -17.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +675 / −1050; Wake Forest 88% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Delaware

Spread moved +0.5 (-18.0 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.5 (52.0 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 20.5 · 66 points — over

Kansas State at Utah

Final

Kansas State 47 · Utah 51

Conference game

Spread: Utah −17.5; Utah -17.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +575 / −900; Utah 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.8; -0.7 vs market · leans Kansas State

Spread moved -1.0 (-16.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Kansas State covered · by 13.5 · 98 points — over

Colorado State at Boise State

Final

Colorado State 21 · Boise State 49

Conference game

Spread: Boise State −17.5; Boise State -17.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +600 / −950; Boise State 86% to win; 3 books
Our model: -20.6; +3.1 vs market · leans Boise State

Spread moved -1.0 (-16.5 → -17.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (45.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Boise State covered · by 10.5 · 70 points — over

North Texas at Rice

Final

North Texas 56 · Rice 24

Conference game

Spread: North Texas −18.5; Rice +18.5; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −1100 / +675; Rice 12% to win; 3 books
Our model: +18.2; +0.3 vs market · leans Rice

Spread moved +1.0 (17.5 → 18.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (54.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 13.5 · 80 points — over

UL Monroe at Texas State

Final

UL Monroe 14 · Texas State 31

Conference game

Spread: Texas State −20.5; Texas State -20.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +750 / −1400; Texas State 89% to win; 3 books
Our model: -19.7; -0.8 vs market · leans UL Monroe

Spread moved -2.0 (-18.5 → -20.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (55.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

UL Monroe covered · by 3.5 · 45 points — under

South Florida at UAB

Final

South Florida 48 · UAB 18

Conference game

Spread: South Florida −21.5; UAB +21.5; 3 books
Total: 68.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1800 / +1000; UAB 9% to win; 3 books
Our model: +21.4; +0.1 vs market · leans UAB

Spread moved +0.0 (21.5 → 21.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (69.0 → 68.5, 2 books)

Result

South Florida covered · by 8.5 · 66 points — under

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina

Final

Coastal Carolina 7 · South Carolina 51

Spread: South Carolina −24.0; South Carolina -24.0; 3 books
Total: 50.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +1300 / −3200; South Carolina 93% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.0; -3.0 vs market · leans Coastal Carolina

Spread moved -0.5 (-23.5 → -24.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (53.0 → 50.0, 2 books)

Result

South Carolina covered · by 20.0 · 58 points — over

Western Kentucky at LSU

Final

Western Kentucky 10 · LSU 13

Spread: LSU −24.5; LSU -24.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1400 / −3200; LSU 94% to win; 3 books
Our model: -20.2; -4.3 vs market · leans Western Kentucky

Spread moved -2.0 (-22.5 → -24.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (50.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 21.5 · 23 points — under

Mercer at Auburn

Final

Mercer 17 · Auburn 62

Spread: Auburn −26.5; Auburn -26.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1800 / −5000; Auburn 95% to win; 2 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-27.5 → -26.5, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (50.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Auburn covered · by 18.5 · 79 points — over

Rutgers at Ohio State

Final

Rutgers 9 · Ohio State 42

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −28.5; Ohio State -28.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +3500 / −4500; Ohio State 97% to win; 2 books
Our model: -28.7; +0.2 vs market · leans Ohio State

Spread moved +4.0 (-32.5 → -28.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (55.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 4.5 · 51 points — under

Ball State at Toledo

Final

Ball State 9 · Toledo 38

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −29.5; Toledo -29.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2500 / −6000; Toledo 96% to win; 2 books
Our model: -24.8; -4.7 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved -3.0 (-26.5 → -29.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (47.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Ball State covered · by 0.5 · 47 points — over

Massachusetts at Ohio

Final

Massachusetts 14 · Ohio 42

Conference game

Spread: Ohio −33.5; Ohio -33.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +3000 / −10000; Ohio 97% to win; 1 book
Our model: -32.8; -0.8 vs market · leans Massachusetts

Spread moved -2.0 (-31.5 → -33.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (51.0 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Massachusetts covered · by 5.5 · 56 points — over

Syracuse at Notre Dame

Final

Syracuse 7 · Notre Dame 70

Spread: Notre Dame −36.5; Notre Dame -36.5; 3 books
Total: 51.0; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -31.0; -5.5 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved -1.5 (-35.0 → -36.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Notre Dame covered · by 26.5 · 77 points — over

Furman at Clemson

Final

Furman 10 · Clemson 45

Spread: Clemson −41.5; Clemson -41.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved +0.0 (-41.5 → -41.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (54.5 → 55.0, 2 books)

Result

Furman covered · by 6.5 · 55 points — under

Charlotte at Georgia

Final

Charlotte 3 · Georgia 35

Spread: Georgia −42.5; Georgia -42.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —
Our model: -45.7; +3.2 vs market · leans Georgia

Spread moved +2.0 (-44.5 → -42.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (54.0 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Charlotte covered · by 10.5 · 38 points — under

Eastern Illinois at Alabama

Final

Eastern Illinois 0 · Alabama 56

Spread: Alabama −50.5; Alabama -50.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved +0.0 (-50.5 → -50.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (57.0 → 57.0, 2 books)

Result

Alabama covered · by 5.5 · 56 points — under

Samford at Texas A&M

Final

Samford 0 · Texas A&M 48

Spread: Texas A&M −54.5; Texas A&M -54.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved +0.0 (-54.5 → -54.5, 2 books)

Total moved -1.0 (59.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Samford covered · by 6.5 · 48 points — under

Biggest upsets

Tulsa beat Army24% to win
Wisconsin beat Illinois26% to win
NC State beat Florida State31% to win
Nevada beat Wyoming33% to win
New Mexico State beat UTEP37% to win

Where we disagreed most

Liberty at Louisiana Tech+8.7 pts toward Louisiana Tech
Michigan at Maryland+7.3 pts toward Maryland
Tulsa at Army+7.0 pts toward Army
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee-6.3 pts toward Sam Houston
San José State at San Diego State+6.1 pts toward San Diego State

Coverage

64 games in this week's window · 64 with a spread · 64 with a total · 59 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →