College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 11 Betting Lines

52 games priced · 52 graded · November 8, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:25 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 30–22; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 23–29; 17 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 25–27
Average total: 52.6; avg spread 9.9

Our model against the market

Model error: 10.86; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 10.92; same games
Model ATS: 31–20; 51 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

UAB at Rice

Final

UAB 17 · Rice 24

Conference game

Spread: Rice −1.0; Rice -1.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −110 / −110; Rice 50% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.1; +2.1 vs market · leans Rice

Spread moved +2.5 (-3.5 → -1.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (53.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Rice covered · by 6.0 · 41 points — under

Maryland at Rutgers

Final

Maryland 20 · Rutgers 35

Conference game

Spread: Rutgers −1.5; Rutgers -1.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +102 / −120; Rutgers 52% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.0; -0.5 vs market · leans Maryland

Spread moved +0.0 (-1.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (58.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Rutgers covered · by 13.5 · 55 points — under

Florida State at Clemson

Final

Florida State 10 · Clemson 24

Conference game

Spread: Clemson −1.5; Clemson -1.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −102 / −120; Clemson 52% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.4; +1.9 vs market · leans Clemson

Spread moved +15.0 (-16.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (55.5 → 56.5, 3 books)

Result

Clemson covered · by 12.5 · 34 points — under

Houston at UCF

Final

Houston 30 · UCF 27

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UCF −1.5; UCF -1.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −105 / −115; UCF 51% to win; 3 books
Our model: -1.0; -0.5 vs market · leans Houston

Spread moved -4.0 (2.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (47.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Houston covered · by 4.5 · 57 points — over

Florida International at Middle Tennessee

Final

Florida International 56 · Middle Tennessee 30

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Middle Tennessee −1.5; Middle Tennessee -1.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −110 / −110; Middle Tennessee 50% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.3; -3.8 vs market · leans Florida International

Spread moved -3.0 (1.5 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (51.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida International covered · by 27.5 · 86 points — over

Jacksonville State at UTEP

Final

Jacksonville State 30 · UTEP 27

Conference game

Spread: Jacksonville State −1.5; UTEP +1.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −120 / −100; UTEP 48% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.0; -2.5 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved +0.0 (1.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (49.0 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Jacksonville State covered · by 1.5 · 57 points — over

Nebraska at UCLA

Final

Nebraska 28 · UCLA 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: UCLA −2.0; UCLA -2.0; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +105 / −125; UCLA 53% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.0; -6.0 vs market · leans Nebraska

Spread moved +0.5 (-2.5 → -2.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (43.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Nebraska covered · by 9.0 · 49 points — over

Miami (OH) at Ohio

Final

Miami (OH) 20 · Ohio 24

Conference game

Spread: Ohio −2.5; Ohio -2.5; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +124 / −148; Ohio 57% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.3; +3.8 vs market · leans Ohio

Spread moved +1.0 (-3.5 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (49.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio covered · by 1.5 · 44 points — under

Tulane at Memphis

Final

Tulane 38 · Memphis 32

Conference gameUpsetOn the 3

Spread: Memphis −3.0; Memphis -3.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −155; Memphis 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.4; +5.4 vs market · leans Memphis

Spread moved +3.5 (-6.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (55.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Tulane covered · by 9.0 · 70 points — over

Kent State at Ball State

Final

Kent State 13 · Ball State 17

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Ball State −3.0; Ball State -3.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +130 / −155; Ball State 58% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.0; +3.0 vs market · leans Ball State

Spread moved +0.0 (-3.0 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (45.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Ball State covered · by 1.0 · 30 points — under

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan

Final

Bowling Green 21 · Eastern Michigan 27

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Eastern Michigan −3.0; Eastern Michigan -3.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −140; Eastern Michigan 56% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.6; -4.6 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (51.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Eastern Michigan covered · by 3.0 · 48 points — under

Texas State at Louisiana

Final

Texas State 39 · Louisiana 42

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Texas State −3.5; Louisiana +3.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −155 / +135; Louisiana 41% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.2; +1.3 vs market · leans Louisiana

Spread moved +1.0 (2.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (64.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana covered · by 6.5 · 81 points — over

Florida at Kentucky

Final

Florida 7 · Kentucky 38

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Florida −4.5; Kentucky +4.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −190 / +160; Kentucky 37% to win; 3 books
Our model: +2.6; +1.9 vs market · leans Kentucky

Spread moved +0.0 (4.5 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (44.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Kentucky covered · by 35.5 · 45 points — over

Oregon at Iowa

Final

Oregon 18 · Iowa 16

Conference game

Spread: Oregon −4.5; Iowa +4.5; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −198 / +165; Iowa 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Oregon

Spread moved -1.5 (6.0 → 4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.5 (43.5 → 41.0, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 2.5 · 34 points — under

Georgia Southern at App State

Final

Georgia Southern 25 · App State 23

Conference gameUpset

Spread: App State −4.5; App State -4.5; 3 books
Total: 61.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −198; App State 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -2.3; -2.2 vs market · leans Georgia Southern

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (62.5 → 61.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia Southern covered · by 6.5 · 48 points — under

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic

Final

Tulsa 21 · Florida Atlantic 40

Conference game

Spread: Florida Atlantic −4.5; Florida Atlantic -4.5; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +164 / −198; Florida Atlantic 64% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.0; -0.5 vs market · leans Tulsa

Spread moved +1.0 (-5.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (65.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Florida Atlantic covered · by 14.5 · 61 points — over

Kansas at Arizona

Final

Kansas 20 · Arizona 24

Conference game

Spread: Arizona −5.5; Arizona -5.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −220; Arizona 66% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.0; +0.6 vs market · leans Arizona

Spread moved +0.0 (-5.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (56.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Kansas covered · by 1.5 · 44 points — under

Louisiana Tech at Delaware

Final

Louisiana Tech 24 · Delaware 25

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisiana Tech −5.5; Delaware +5.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −218 / +180; Delaware 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.6; -2.1 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved +1.0 (4.5 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (57.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Delaware covered · by 6.5 · 49 points — under

UNLV at Colorado State

Final

UNLV 42 · Colorado State 10

Conference game

Spread: UNLV −5.5; Colorado State +5.5; 3 books
Total: 61.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −218 / +180; Colorado State 34% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.0; -0.5 vs market · leans UNLV

Spread moved -0.5 (6.0 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (61.5 → 61.0, 2 books)

Result

UNLV covered · by 26.5 · 52 points — under

Auburn at Vanderbilt

Final

Auburn 38 · Vanderbilt 45

Conference game

Spread: Vanderbilt −6.0; Vanderbilt -6.0; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +195 / −230; Vanderbilt 67% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.4; +2.4 vs market · leans Vanderbilt

Spread moved +1.5 (-7.5 → -6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (45.5 → 46.0, 2 books)

Result

Vanderbilt covered · by 1.0 · 83 points — over

Air Force at San José State

Final

Air Force 26 · San José State 16

Conference gameUpset

Spread: San José State −6.0; San José State -6.0; 3 books
Total: 67.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +190 / −225; San José State 67% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.3; -1.6 vs market · leans Air Force

Spread moved -2.5 (-3.5 → -6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (65.5 → 67.5, 2 books)

Result

Air Force covered · by 16.0 · 42 points — under

Colorado at West Virginia

Final

Colorado 22 · West Virginia 29

Conference game

Spread: West Virginia −6.5; West Virginia -6.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +200 / −240; West Virginia 68% to win; 3 books
Our model: +1.2; -7.7 vs market · leans Colorado

Spread moved -1.0 (-5.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (53.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

West Virginia covered · by 0.5 · 51 points — under

San Diego State at Hawai'i

Final

San Diego State 6 · Hawai'i 38

Conference gameUpset

Spread: San Diego State −6.5; Hawai'i +6.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −250 / +210; Hawai'i 31% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.7; -1.1 vs market · leans San Diego State

Spread moved +2.0 (4.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (50.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Hawai'i covered · by 38.5 · 44 points — under

Southern Miss at Arkansas State

Final

Southern Miss 27 · Arkansas State 21

Conference game

Spread: Southern Miss −6.5; Arkansas State +6.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −238 / +195; Arkansas State 33% to win; 3 books
Our model: +0.6; +5.9 vs market · leans Arkansas State

Spread moved +1.0 (5.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved -5.0 (59.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Arkansas State covered · by 0.5 · 48 points — under

Texas A&M at Missouri

Final

Texas A&M 38 · Missouri 17

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Texas A&M −7.0; Missouri +7.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −265 / +215; Missouri 30% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.5; +3.5 vs market · leans Missouri

Spread moved +1.0 (6.0 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (49.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Texas A&M covered · by 14.0 · 55 points — over

Wake Forest at Virginia

Final

Wake Forest 16 · Virginia 9

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Virginia −7.0; Virginia -7.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +210 / −258; Virginia 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.0; +5.0 vs market · leans Virginia

Spread moved -0.5 (-6.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (48.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 14.0 · 25 points — under

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina

Final

Georgia State 27 · Coastal Carolina 40

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Coastal Carolina −7.0; Coastal Carolina -7.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +230 / −285; Coastal Carolina 71% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.2; +3.2 vs market · leans Coastal Carolina

Spread moved +0.5 (-7.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (56.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Coastal Carolina covered · by 6.0 · 67 points — over

Temple at Army

Final

Temple 13 · Army 14

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Army −7.0; Army -7.0; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +215 / −260; Army 69% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.8; +4.8 vs market · leans Army

Spread moved -0.5 (-6.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (46.5 → 45.0, 2 books)

Result

Temple covered · by 6.0 · 27 points — under

Duke at UConn

Final

Duke 34 · UConn 37

Upset

Spread: Duke −7.5; UConn +7.5; 3 books
Total: 63.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −310 / +250; UConn 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.8; +2.7 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved -1.0 (8.5 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -4.0 (66.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

UConn covered · by 10.5 · 71 points — over

Iowa State at TCU

Final

Iowa State 20 · TCU 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: TCU −7.5; TCU -7.5; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +225 / −275; TCU 70% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.0; -2.5 vs market · leans Iowa State

Spread moved -1.0 (-6.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (57.5 → 58.0, 2 books)

Result

Iowa State covered · by 10.5 · 37 points — under

Missouri State at Liberty

Final

Missouri State 21 · Liberty 17

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Liberty −7.5; Liberty -7.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −290; Liberty 72% to win; 3 books
Our model: -3.4; -4.1 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved +0.0 (-7.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (50.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Missouri State covered · by 11.5 · 38 points — under

Stanford at North Carolina

Final

Stanford 15 · North Carolina 20

Conference game

Spread: North Carolina −8.5; North Carolina -8.5; 3 books
Total: 41.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +260 / −320; North Carolina 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.4; -3.1 vs market · leans Stanford

Spread moved +0.0 (-8.5 → -8.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (42.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

Stanford covered · by 3.5 · 35 points — under

Georgia at Mississippi State

Final

Georgia 41 · Mississippi State 21

Conference game

Spread: Georgia −9.5; Mississippi State +9.5; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −345 / +275; Mississippi State 26% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.3; +0.1 vs market · leans Mississippi State

Spread moved +1.0 (8.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (57.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Georgia covered · by 10.5 · 62 points — over

LSU at Alabama

Final

LSU 9 · Alabama 20

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Alabama −10.0; Alabama -10.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +300 / −380; Alabama 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -8.8; -1.2 vs market · leans LSU

Spread moved -4.5 (-5.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (49.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Alabama covered · by 1.0 · 29 points — under

Nevada at Utah State

Final

Nevada 14 · Utah State 51

Conference gameOn the 10

Spread: Utah State −10.0; Utah State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +290 / −380; Utah State 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.4; +1.4 vs market · leans Utah State

Spread moved +1.0 (-11.0 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (52.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 27.0 · 65 points — over

Washington at Wisconsin

Final

Washington 10 · Wisconsin 13

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Washington −10.5; Wisconsin +10.5; 3 books
Total: 44.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −420 / +320; Wisconsin 23% to win; 3 books
Our model: +11.1; -0.6 vs market · leans Washington

Spread moved -1.0 (11.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (45.5 → 44.5, 2 books)

Result

Wisconsin covered · by 13.5 · 23 points — under

SMU at Boston College

Final

SMU 45 · Boston College 13

Conference game

Spread: SMU −10.5; Boston College +10.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +330; Boston College 22% to win; 3 books
Our model: +14.1; -3.6 vs market · leans SMU

Spread moved -2.0 (12.5 → 10.5, 3 books)

Total moved +3.0 (51.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

SMU covered · by 21.5 · 58 points — over

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State

Final

Kennesaw State 24 · New Mexico State 21

Conference game

Spread: Kennesaw State −11.5; New Mexico State +11.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −425 / +330; New Mexico State 22% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.9; +3.6 vs market · leans New Mexico State

Spread moved +4.5 (7.0 → 11.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (53.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico State covered · by 8.5 · 45 points — under

Massachusetts at Akron

Final

Massachusetts 10 · Akron 44

Conference game

Spread: Akron −12.5; Akron -12.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −485; Akron 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.5; +4.0 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved -2.5 (-10.0 → -12.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (48.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Akron covered · by 21.5 · 54 points — over

BYU at Texas Tech

Final

BYU 7 · Texas Tech 29

Conference game

Spread: Texas Tech −13.5; Texas Tech -13.5; 3 books
Total: 50.0; 2 books
Moneyline: +360 / −500; Texas Tech 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -5.7; -7.8 vs market · leans BYU

Spread moved -3.0 (-10.5 → -13.5, 3 books)

Result

Texas Tech covered · by 8.5 · 36 points — under

James Madison at Marshall

Final

James Madison 35 · Marshall 23

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −13.5; Marshall +13.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −575 / +425; Marshall 18% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.9; +4.6 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +1.0 (12.5 → 13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (54.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Marshall covered · by 1.5 · 58 points — over

Indiana at Penn State

Final

Indiana 27 · Penn State 24

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Indiana −14.0; Penn State +14.0; 3 books
Total: 50.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −600 / +410; Penn State 19% to win; 3 books
Our model: +9.2; +4.8 vs market · leans Penn State

Spread moved +2.5 (11.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (49.5 → 50.5, 2 books)

Result

Penn State covered · by 11.0 · 51 points — over

UTSA at South Florida

Final

UTSA 23 · South Florida 55

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: South Florida −14.0; South Florida -14.0; 3 books
Total: 66.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +425 / −600; South Florida 82% to win; 3 books
Our model: -13.8; -0.2 vs market · leans UTSA

Spread moved -1.0 (-13.0 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (67.5 → 66.5, 2 books)

Result

South Florida covered · by 18.0 · 78 points — over

Northwestern at USC

Final

Northwestern 17 · USC 38

Conference game

Spread: USC −14.5; USC -14.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +470 / −650; USC 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -16.6; +2.1 vs market · leans USC

Spread moved +1.0 (-15.5 → -14.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (51.5 → 54.0, 2 books)

Result

USC covered · by 6.5 · 55 points — over

Northern Illinois at Toledo

Final

Northern Illinois 3 · Toledo 42

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −15.5; Toledo -15.5; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +470 / −650; Toledo 83% to win; 3 books
Our model: -15.7; +0.2 vs market · leans Toledo

Spread moved -1.0 (-14.5 → -15.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (41.5 → 41.5, 2 books)

Result

Toledo covered · by 23.5 · 45 points — over

California at Louisville

Final

California 29 · Louisville 26

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Louisville −18.5; Louisville -18.5; 3 books
Total: 49.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +700 / −1200; Louisville 88% to win; 3 books
Our model: -19.9; +1.4 vs market · leans Louisville

Spread moved +0.0 (-18.5 → -18.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (49.5 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

California covered · by 21.5 · 55 points — over

Sam Houston at Oregon State

Final

Sam Houston 21 · Oregon State 17

Upset

Spread: Oregon State −21.0; Oregon State -21.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +850 / −1450; Oregon State 90% to win; 3 books
Our model: -12.9; -8.1 vs market · leans Sam Houston

Spread moved -2.5 (-18.5 → -21.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (51.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Sam Houston covered · by 25.0 · 38 points — under

Charlotte at East Carolina

Final

Charlotte 22 · East Carolina 48

Conference game

Spread: East Carolina −28.0; East Carolina -28.0; 3 books
Total: 56.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2500 / −4000; East Carolina 96% to win; 2 books
Our model: -30.0; +2.0 vs market · leans East Carolina

Spread moved +0.5 (-28.5 → -28.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (55.5 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Charlotte covered · by 2.0 · 70 points — over

Syracuse at Miami

Final

Syracuse 10 · Miami 38

Conference game

Spread: Miami −28.5; Miami -28.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2500 / −5000; Miami 96% to win; 2 books
Our model: -24.0; -4.5 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved -0.5 (-28.0 → -28.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (46.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Syracuse covered · by 0.5 · 48 points — over

Ohio State at Purdue

Final

Ohio State 34 · Purdue 10

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −29.5; Purdue +29.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −4500 / +3000; Purdue 3% to win; 2 books
Our model: +27.2; +2.3 vs market · leans Purdue

Spread moved +0.5 (28.5 → 29.0, 2 books)

Total moved +1.0 (48.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Purdue covered · by 5.5 · 44 points — under

Navy at Notre Dame

Final

Navy 10 · Notre Dame 49

Spread: Notre Dame −30.5; Notre Dame -30.5; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +2000 / −6500; Notre Dame 95% to win; 3 books
Our model: -27.8; -2.7 vs market · leans Navy

Spread moved -6.0 (-24.5 → -30.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (56.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Notre Dame covered · by 8.5 · 59 points — over

The Citadel at Ole Miss

Final

The Citadel 0 · Ole Miss 49

Spread: Ole Miss −51.5; Ole Miss -51.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved +0.0 (-51.5 → -51.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (63.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

The Citadel covered · by 2.5 · 49 points — under

Biggest upsets

Sam Houston beat Oregon State10% to win
California beat Louisville12% to win
Wisconsin beat Washington23% to win
UConn beat Duke27% to win
Missouri State beat Liberty28% to win

Where we disagreed most

Sam Houston at Oregon State-8.1 pts toward Sam Houston
BYU at Texas Tech-7.8 pts toward BYU
Colorado at West Virginia-7.7 pts toward Colorado
Nebraska at UCLA-6.0 pts toward Nebraska
Southern Miss at Arkansas State+5.9 pts toward Arkansas State

Coverage

52 games in this week's window · 52 with a spread · 52 with a total · 51 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →