College Football Betting · 2025

College Football Week 5 Betting Lines

53 games priced · 53 graded · September 27, 2025 · Updated Jul 28, 11:27 PM ET

The week in the market

Home ATS: 26–25–2; wins–losses–pushes
Favorites ATS: 27–24–2; 10 straight-up upsets
Over / under: 25–28
Average total: 53.3; avg spread 9.0

Our model against the market

Model error: 10.17; mean absolute error, points
Market error: 8.34; same games
Model ATS: 9–9–1; 19 games scored

The market is normally the more accurate of the two, and the two figures are averaged over exactly the same games so the comparison means something. A single week is about fifty games — any record here carries a standard error near seven percentage points and is description, not evidence of an edge.

Every game

San Diego State at Northern Illinois

Final

San Diego State 6 · Northern Illinois 3

Spread: San Diego State −1.5; Northern Illinois +1.5; 3 books
Total: 42.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −135 / +115; Northern Illinois 45% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.0 (2.5 → 1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (42.5 → 42.0, 2 books)

Result

San Diego State covered · by 1.5 · 9 points — under

Arkansas State at UL Monroe

Final

Arkansas State 16 · UL Monroe 28

Conference game

Spread: UL Monroe −1.5; UL Monroe -1.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −105 / −115; UL Monroe 51% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.5 (-3.0 → -1.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (56.5 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

UL Monroe covered · by 10.5 · 44 points — under

Alabama at Georgia

Final

Alabama 24 · Georgia 21

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Georgia −2.5; Georgia -2.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −142; Georgia 56% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.5 (-4.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Alabama covered · by 5.5 · 45 points — under

LSU at Ole Miss

Final

LSU 19 · Ole Miss 24

Conference game

Spread: Ole Miss −2.5; Ole Miss -2.5; 3 books
Total: 58.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −140; Ole Miss 56% to win; 3 books
Our model: -10.4; +8.0 vs market · leans Ole Miss

Spread moved -4.5 (2.0 → -2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (55.5 → 58.0, 2 books)

Result

Ole Miss covered · by 2.5 · 43 points — under

Marshall at Louisiana

Final

Marshall 51 · Louisiana 54

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Marshall −2.5; Louisiana +2.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −130 / +110; Louisiana 46% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Marshall

Spread moved +5.0 (-2.5 → 2.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (46.5 → 48.0, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana covered · by 5.5 · 105 points — over

Louisville at Pittsburgh

Final

Louisville 34 · Pittsburgh 27

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Louisville −3.0; Pittsburgh +3.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −165 / +140; Pittsburgh 40% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -0.5 (3.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (55.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisville covered · by 4.0 · 61 points — over

San José State at Stanford

Final

San José State 29 · Stanford 30

On the 3

Spread: Stanford −3.0; Stanford -3.0; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +120 / −140; Stanford 56% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.5 (-1.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (49.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

San José State covered · by 2.0 · 59 points — over

TCU at Arizona State

Final

TCU 24 · Arizona State 27

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Arizona State −3.0; Arizona State -3.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +124 / −148; Arizona State 57% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -0.5 (-2.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Result

Push · 51 points — under

UConn at Buffalo

Final

UConn 20 · Buffalo 17

On the 3

Spread: UConn −3.0; Buffalo +3.0; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −145 / +125; Buffalo 43% to win; 3 books
Our model: +4.6; -1.6 vs market · leans UConn

Spread moved +0.5 (2.5 → 3.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (51.5 → 51.0, 2 books)

Result

Push · 37 points — under

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan

Final

Eastern Michigan 13 · Central Michigan 24

Conference gameOn the 3

Spread: Central Michigan −3.0; Central Michigan -3.0; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +136 / −162; Central Michigan 59% to win; 3 books
Our model: -6.5; +3.5 vs market · leans Central Michigan

Spread moved +2.5 (-5.5 → -3.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (54.0 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

Central Michigan covered · by 8.0 · 37 points — under

Rutgers at Minnesota

Final

Rutgers 28 · Minnesota 31

Conference game

Spread: Minnesota −3.5; Minnesota -3.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −175; Minnesota 61% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-4.5 → -3.5, 3 books)

Result

Rutgers covered · by 0.5 · 59 points — over

Louisiana Tech at UTEP

Final

Louisiana Tech 30 · UTEP 11

Conference game

Spread: Louisiana Tech −3.5; UTEP +3.5; 3 books
Total: 48.0; 3 books
Moneyline: −185 / +154; UTEP 38% to win; 3 books
Our model: +5.9; -2.4 vs market · leans Louisiana Tech

Spread moved +0.0 (3.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (48.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Louisiana Tech covered · by 15.5 · 41 points — under

Western Kentucky at Missouri State

Final

Western Kentucky 27 · Missouri State 22

Conference game

Spread: Western Kentucky −3.5; Missouri State +3.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −190 / +160; Missouri State 37% to win; 3 books
Our model: -0.7; +4.2 vs market · leans Missouri State

Spread moved -2.0 (5.5 → 3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (59.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Western Kentucky covered · by 1.5 · 49 points — under

Army at East Carolina

Final

Army 6 · East Carolina 28

Conference game

Spread: East Carolina −3.5; East Carolina -3.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +145 / −170; East Carolina 61% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -0.5 (-3.0 → -3.5, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (52.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

East Carolina covered · by 18.5 · 34 points — under

Oregon at Penn State

Final

Oregon 30 · Penn State 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Penn State −4.0; Penn State -4.0; 3 books
Total: 53.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; Penn State 62% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.5 (-5.5 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (52.5 → 53.0, 3 books)

Result

Oregon covered · by 10.0 · 54 points — over

Duke at Syracuse

Final

Duke 38 · Syracuse 3

Conference game

Spread: Duke −4.0; Syracuse +4.0; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −195 / +165; Syracuse 36% to win; 3 books
Our model: -9.9; +13.9 vs market · leans Syracuse

Spread moved -1.5 (5.5 → 4.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (58.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Duke covered · by 31.0 · 41 points — under

Arizona at Iowa State

Final

Arizona 14 · Iowa State 39

Conference game

Spread: Iowa State −4.0; Iowa State -4.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +150 / −180; Iowa State 62% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +3.0 (-7.0 → -4.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (49.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa State covered · by 21.0 · 53 points — over

Washington State at Colorado State

Final

Washington State 20 · Colorado State 3

Upset

Spread: Colorado State −4.5; Colorado State -4.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +170 / −200; Colorado State 64% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.0 (-4.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (50.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Washington State covered · by 21.5 · 23 points — under

Jacksonville State at Southern Miss

Final

Jacksonville State 25 · Southern Miss 42

Spread: Southern Miss −4.5; Southern Miss -4.5; 3 books
Total: 55.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +160 / −192; Southern Miss 63% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.7; -11.2 vs market · leans Jacksonville State

Spread moved -1.0 (-3.5 → -4.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (57.0 → 55.5, 2 books)

Result

Southern Miss covered · by 12.5 · 67 points — over

Notre Dame at Arkansas

Final

Notre Dame 56 · Arkansas 13

Spread: Notre Dame −5.5; Arkansas +5.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −218 / +180; Arkansas 34% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.0 (6.5 → 5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (58.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Notre Dame covered · by 37.5 · 69 points — over

Kentucky at South Carolina

Final

Kentucky 13 · South Carolina 35

Conference game

Spread: South Carolina −5.5; South Carolina -5.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; South Carolina 66% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-6.5 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (47.0 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

South Carolina covered · by 16.5 · 48 points — over

Cincinnati at Kansas

Final

Cincinnati 37 · Kansas 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Kansas −5.5; Kansas -5.5; 3 books
Total: 56.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; Kansas 66% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.5 (-6.0 → -5.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (54.5 → 56.0, 2 books)

Result

Cincinnati covered · by 8.5 · 71 points — over

UCLA at Northwestern

Final

UCLA 14 · Northwestern 17

Conference game

Spread: Northwestern −6.0; Northwestern -6.0; 3 books
Total: 46.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −218; Northwestern 66% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.5 (-6.5 → -6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (45.5 → 46.0, 2 books)

Result

UCLA covered · by 3.0 · 31 points — under

California at Boston College

Final

California 28 · Boston College 24

Conference gameUpset

Spread: Boston College −6.0; Boston College -6.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +185 / −225; Boston College 66% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.0 → -6.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (51.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

California covered · by 10.0 · 52 points — under

UCF at Kansas State

Final

UCF 20 · Kansas State 34

Conference game

Spread: Kansas State −6.0; Kansas State -6.0; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +180 / −220; Kansas State 66% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -0.5 (-5.5 → -6.0, 3 books)

Result

Kansas State covered · by 8.0 · 54 points — over

Auburn at Texas A&M

Final

Auburn 10 · Texas A&M 16

Conference game

Spread: Texas A&M −6.5; Texas A&M -6.5; 3 books
Total: 51.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +195 / −238; Texas A&M 68% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.0 (-6.5 → -6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +5.0 (46.5 → 51.5, 2 books)

Result

Auburn covered · by 0.5 · 26 points — under

USC at Illinois

Final

USC 32 · Illinois 34

Conference gameUpset

Spread: USC −6.5; Illinois +6.5; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −240 / +200; Illinois 32% to win; 3 books
Our model: +3.0; +3.5 vs market · leans Illinois

Spread moved +5.0 (1.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +5.5 (56.5 → 62.0, 2 books)

Result

Illinois covered · by 8.5 · 66 points — over

BYU at Colorado

Final

BYU 24 · Colorado 21

Conference game

Spread: BYU −6.5; Colorado +6.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −240 / +200; Colorado 32% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.0 (6.5 → 6.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (47.5 → 48.5, 2 books)

Result

Colorado covered · by 3.5 · 45 points — under

Florida State at Virginia

Final

Florida State 38 · Virginia 46

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Florida State −7.0; Virginia +7.0; 3 books
Total: 60.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −270 / +220; Virginia 30% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -0.5 (7.5 → 7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +9.0 (51.5 → 60.5, 2 books)

Result

Virginia covered · by 15.0 · 84 points — over

Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State

Final

Middle Tennessee 16 · Kennesaw State 24

Conference gameOn the 7

Spread: Kennesaw State −7.0; Kennesaw State -7.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +190 / −230; Kennesaw State 67% to win; 3 books
Our model: -11.7; +4.7 vs market · leans Kennesaw State

Spread moved -0.5 (-6.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (51.0 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Kennesaw State covered · by 1.0 · 40 points — under

Hawai'i at Air Force

Final

Hawai'i 44 · Air Force 35

Conference gameUpsetOn the 7

Spread: Air Force −7.0; Air Force -7.0; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +210 / −250; Air Force 69% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -2.5 (-4.5 → -7.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (53.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Hawai'i covered · by 16.0 · 79 points — over

Tennessee at Mississippi State

Final

Tennessee 41 · Mississippi State 34

Conference game

Spread: Tennessee −7.5; Mississippi State +7.5; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −285 / +235; Mississippi State 29% to win; 3 books
Our model: +8.5; -1.0 vs market · leans Tennessee

Spread moved -1.5 (9.0 → 7.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (62.5 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

Mississippi State covered · by 0.5 · 75 points — over

Bowling Green at Ohio

Final

Bowling Green 20 · Ohio 35

Conference game

Spread: Ohio −7.5; Ohio -7.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +260 / −325; Ohio 73% to win; 3 books
Our model: -7.3; -0.2 vs market · leans Bowling Green

Spread moved +3.0 (-10.5 → -7.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (50.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio covered · by 7.5 · 55 points — over

Rhode Island at Western Michigan

Final

Rhode Island 14 · Western Michigan 47

Spread: Western Michigan −7.5; Western Michigan -7.5; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +240 / −290; Western Michigan 72% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.0 (-7.5 → -8.5, 2 books)

Total moved +2.0 (43.5 → 45.5, 3 books)

Result

Western Michigan covered · by 25.5 · 61 points — over

Ohio State at Washington

Final

Ohio State 24 · Washington 6

Conference game

Spread: Ohio State −9.5; Washington +9.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −375 / +290; Washington 25% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -2.0 (11.5 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved +4.0 (48.5 → 52.5, 2 books)

Result

Ohio State covered · by 8.5 · 30 points — under

Indiana at Iowa

Final

Indiana 20 · Iowa 15

Conference game

Spread: Indiana −9.5; Iowa +9.5; 3 books
Total: 47.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −320 / +260; Iowa 27% to win; 3 books
Our model: +7.5; +2.0 vs market · leans Iowa

Spread moved +6.5 (3.0 → 9.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (48.5 → 47.5, 2 books)

Result

Iowa covered · by 4.5 · 35 points — under

Virginia Tech at NC State

Final

Virginia Tech 23 · NC State 21

Conference gameUpsetOn the 10

Spread: NC State −10.0; NC State -10.0; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +290 / −380; NC State 76% to win; 3 books
Our model: -4.4; -5.6 vs market · leans Virginia Tech

Spread moved +0.5 (-10.5 → -10.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (57.0 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Virginia Tech covered · by 12.0 · 44 points — under

Houston at Oregon State

Final

Houston 27 · Oregon State 24

Spread: Houston −11.5; Oregon State +11.5; 3 books
Total: 48.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −500 / +360; Oregon State 21% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.0 (12.5 → 11.5, 3 books)

Result

Oregon State covered · by 8.5 · 51 points — over

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest

Final

Georgia Tech 30 · Wake Forest 29

Conference game

Spread: Georgia Tech −13.0; Wake Forest +13.0; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −600 / +410; Wake Forest 19% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -2.5 (15.5 → 13.0, 3 books)

Total moved -0.5 (53.5 → 53.0, 2 books)

Result

Wake Forest covered · by 12.0 · 59 points — over

South Alabama at North Texas

Final

South Alabama 22 · North Texas 36

Spread: North Texas −13.0; North Texas -13.0; 3 books
Total: 63.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +360 / −500; North Texas 79% to win; 3 books
Our model: -19.1; +6.1 vs market · leans North Texas

Spread moved -0.5 (-12.5 → -13.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.5 (63.0 → 63.5, 2 books)

Result

North Texas covered · by 1.0 · 58 points — under

Utah at West Virginia

Final

Utah 48 · West Virginia 14

Conference game

Spread: Utah −13.5; West Virginia +13.5; 3 books
Total: 46.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −535 / +400; West Virginia 19% to win; 3 books
Our model: +6.6; +6.9 vs market · leans West Virginia

Spread moved +3.0 (10.5 → 13.5, 3 books)

Total moved -3.0 (49.5 → 46.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah covered · by 20.5 · 62 points — over

Memphis at Florida Atlantic

Final

Memphis 55 · Florida Atlantic 26

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Memphis −14.0; Florida Atlantic +14.0; 3 books
Total: 62.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −585 / +425; Florida Atlantic 18% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.5 (13.5 → 14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (61.5 → 62.5, 2 books)

Result

Memphis covered · by 15.0 · 81 points — over

Rice at Navy

Final

Rice 13 · Navy 21

Conference gameOn the 14

Spread: Navy −14.0; Navy -14.0; 3 books
Total: 45.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +430 / −625; Navy 82% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.5 (-14.5 → -14.0, 3 books)

Total moved +0.0 (45.5 → 45.5, 2 books)

Result

Rice covered · by 6.0 · 34 points — under

Liberty at Old Dominion

Final

Liberty 7 · Old Dominion 21

Spread: Old Dominion −14.5; Old Dominion -14.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +450 / −675; Old Dominion 83% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-15.5 → -14.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.5 (51.0 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

Liberty covered · by 0.5 · 28 points — under

Tulane at Tulsa

Final

Tulane 31 · Tulsa 14

Conference game

Spread: Tulane −14.5; Tulsa +14.5; 3 books
Total: 52.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −700 / +475; Tulsa 17% to win; 3 books
Our model: +13.8; +0.8 vs market · leans Tulsa

Spread moved +1.0 (13.5 → 14.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.5 (53.5 → 52.0, 2 books)

Result

Tulane covered · by 2.5 · 45 points — under

Georgia Southern at James Madison

Final

Georgia Southern 10 · James Madison 35

Conference game

Spread: James Madison −15.0; James Madison -15.0; 3 books
Total: 54.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +500 / −800; James Madison 84% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-16.0 → -15.0, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (53.5 → 54.5, 2 books)

Result

James Madison covered · by 10.0 · 45 points — under

New Mexico State at New Mexico

Final

New Mexico State 20 · New Mexico 38

Spread: New Mexico −16.5; New Mexico -16.5; 3 books
Total: 53.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +475 / −750; New Mexico 84% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -3.0 (-13.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (54.5 → 53.5, 2 books)

Result

New Mexico covered · by 1.5 · 58 points — over

App State at Boise State

Final

App State 14 · Boise State 47

Spread: Boise State −16.5; Boise State -16.5; 3 books
Total: 59.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +550 / −900; Boise State 85% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +1.0 (-17.5 → -16.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.0 (58.5 → 59.5, 2 books)

Result

Boise State covered · by 16.5 · 61 points — over

Baylor at Oklahoma State

Final

Baylor 45 · Oklahoma State 27

Conference game

Spread: Baylor −21.0; Oklahoma State +21.0; 3 books
Total: 58.5; 3 books
Moneyline: −1500 / +850; Oklahoma State 10% to win; 3 books

Spread moved +0.5 (20.5 → 21.0, 3 books)

Total moved -1.0 (59.5 → 58.5, 2 books)

Result

Oklahoma State covered · by 3.0 · 72 points — over

Akron at Toledo

Final

Akron 3 · Toledo 45

Conference game

Spread: Toledo −21.5; Toledo -21.5; 3 books
Total: 50.0; 3 books
Moneyline: +1000 / −2000; Toledo 91% to win; 3 books
Our model: -18.2; -3.3 vs market · leans Akron

Spread moved -0.5 (-21.0 → -21.5, 3 books)

Total moved +2.0 (47.5 → 49.5, 2 books)

Result

Toledo covered · by 20.5 · 48 points — under

Lindenwood at Miami (OH)

Final

Lindenwood 0 · Miami (OH) 38

Spread: Miami (OH) −22.5; Miami (OH) -22.5; 3 books
Total: 49.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1100 / −2100; Miami (OH) 92% to win; 3 books

Spread moved -1.5 (-21.0 → -22.5, 2 books)

Total moved +0.0 (49.0 → 49.0, 2 books)

Result

Miami (OH) covered · by 15.5 · 38 points — under

Utah State at Vanderbilt

Final

Utah State 35 · Vanderbilt 55

Spread: Vanderbilt −23.5; Vanderbilt -23.5; 3 books
Total: 57.5; 3 books
Moneyline: +1000 / −2000; Vanderbilt 91% to win; 3 books
Our model: -21.3; -2.2 vs market · leans Utah State

Spread moved -1.0 (-22.5 → -23.5, 3 books)

Total moved -2.0 (59.5 → 57.5, 2 books)

Result

Utah State covered · by 3.5 · 90 points — over

Massachusetts at Missouri

Final

Massachusetts 6 · Missouri 42

Spread: Missouri −44.5; Missouri -44.5; 3 books
Total: 57.0; 3 books
Moneyline: —

Spread moved -2.0 (-42.5 → -44.5, 3 books)

Total moved +1.5 (55.0 → 56.5, 2 books)

Result

Massachusetts covered · by 8.5 · 48 points — under

Biggest upsets

Virginia Tech beat NC State24% to win
Virginia beat Florida State30% to win
Hawai'i beat Air Force31% to win
Illinois beat USC32% to win
California beat Boston College34% to win

Where we disagreed most

Duke at Syracuse+13.9 pts toward Syracuse
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss-11.2 pts toward Jacksonville State
LSU at Ole Miss+8.0 pts toward Ole Miss
Utah at West Virginia+6.9 pts toward West Virginia
South Alabama at North Texas+6.1 pts toward North Texas

Coverage

53 games in this week's window · 53 with a spread · 53 with a total · 52 with a moneyline · 0 with no line at all.

Methodology

This board describes what the market posted and what happened. It is not betting advice and no line here is actionable — the prices are historical closing numbers, not quotes.

The consensus line is the MEDIAN across every book that posted that market, not a single book's number and not an average — a median is unmoved by one outlier book. It is a DISCRETE median, so the number shown is always one a book actually posted; an interpolating median would print prices like -2.75 that nobody offered and that make an exact push impossible. The number of books behind each market is published with it; some games rest on one book.
Spreads are shown from the home team's perspective in book convention: NEGATIVE means the home team is favored. Each game also carries an explicit favorite so nothing depends on the sign.
Moneylines are aggregated as implied probabilities and converted back to a price. Medianing American odds directly is not monotone across the -100/+100 boundary. The two sides' implied probabilities sum to more than 1; that excess is the book's hold, which is published and removed to get the win probabilities shown.
Line movement is measured only over the books that posted BOTH an opening and a closing number, with the open and close both medianed over that same set — so the opening plus the movement always equals the closing number shown in that block. That block's close can differ slightly from the headline consensus, which is medianed over every book including the majority that never posted an opening. Openings are sparse, so movement is published only when at least 2 books reported one, which in practice means 2024 onward.
Against-the-spread grading uses the consensus closing line. A game landing exactly on the number is a push and is counted separately, never as a win or a loss.
The model line is this site's own SRS rating, fit on games through the END OF THE PRIOR WEEK — it never sees the result it is being compared against. Only FBS-vs-FBS games get a model column: an FCS opponent, or a team under the four-game minimum, gets none rather than a guessed one. The two error figures are averaged over exactly the same games, which is what makes them comparable.
A single week is roughly fifty games. Any weekly record here — the market's, the model's, home teams', favorites' — carries a standard error near seven percentage points and should be read as description, not as evidence that anything predicts anything.
Line coverage is uneven: nearly all FBS-involving games in recent seasons carry a line, older seasons fewer, and games below the FCS level none at all. The coverage block reports what was available.

FACT (posted lines, final scores), DERIVED (consensus, grading, model line, records)

More for this week

Scores & win probability →Power ratings →