Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
July 4, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
63 lines · 12 projected · Updated Jul 4, 1:27 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Luis Garcia Jr. is the cleanest number on the board — 75.7% model probability over 1.5 total bases against a no-vig implied right around 49%, good for a 26.98-point edge. Remember the Poisson tail bias runs low here, so that gap is likely a floor rather than a ceiling. James Wood at 19.09 edge and a 2.29 projection is the other high-confidence over worth noting. Esmerlyn Valdez sits between them at 24.09 edge but carries medium confidence, so treat it accordingly. Only 12 of 63 lines have projections attached, which limits the depth of this board.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
12 of 63 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Garcia Jr. Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | −109/ −122 | 2.73 | 76% | 49% | +27.0 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Esmerlyn Valdez Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −105/ −127 | 2.53 | 72% | 48% | +24.1 pp | Over | Med |
| 3 | James Wood Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | −104/ −128 | 2.29 | 67% | 48% | +19.1 pp | Over | High |
| 4 | Dylan Crews Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +131/ −174 | 1.69 | 50% | 41% | +9.8 pp | Over | Med |
| 5 | Konnor Griffin Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −120/ −110 | 2.00 | 59% | 51% | +8.4 pp | Over | High |
| 6 | Bryan Reynolds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +103/ −136 | 1.73 | 52% | 46% | +5.5 pp | Over | High |
| 7 | Daylen Lile Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +125/ −166 | 1.55 | 46% | 42% | +4.3 pp | Over | High |
| 8 | Ryan O'Hearn Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −103/ −129 | 1.63 | 48% | 47% | +1.1 pp | Over | High |
| 9 | Brandon Lowe Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | −110/ −120 | 1.53 | 45% | 49% | −3.8 pp | Under | High |
| 10 | CJ Abrams Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.5 | +116/ −154 | 1.26 | 36% | 43% | −7.4 pp | Under | High |
| 11 | Nick Gonzales Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +114/ −152 | 1.07 | 29% | 44% | −14.7 pp | Under | High |
| 12 | Jake Mangum Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | 1.5 | +108/ −143 | 0.74 | 17% | 45% | −28.0 pp | Under | Med |
| 13 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | −127/ −104 | — | — | 52% | — | — | — |
| 15 | Bo Bichette | 1.5 | +106/ −141 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 16 | Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 17 | Brayan Rocchio | 1.5 | +154/ −207 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Brooks Lee | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Carson Benge | 1.5 | +158/ −212 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Chase DeLauter | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Chase Meidroth | 1.5 | +160/ −215 | — | — | 36% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +109/ −144 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Dillon Dingler | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 24 | Dominic Canzone | 1.5 | +122/ −162 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Drake Baldwin | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 | −111/ −119 | — | — | 49% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +149/ −200 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Eugenio Suarez | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +101/ −134 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 30 | JJ Bleday | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Jasson Domínguez | 1.5 | +106/ −140 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Jonathan Aranda | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Josh Bell | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Josh Jung | 1.5 | +145/ −194 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Josh Naylor | 1.5 | +130/ −174 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Juan Soto | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Junior Caminero | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Kerry Carpenter | 1.5 | +124/ −166 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 40 | Kevin McGonigle | 1.5 | +133/ −177 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 41 | Kody Clemens | 1.5 | +104/ −139 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 42 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 43 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +140/ −187 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 44 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 45 | Miguel Vargas | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 46 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +151/ −202 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 47 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1.5 | +132/ −176 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 48 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +112/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 49 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +124/ −165 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 50 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +113/ −150 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 51 | Randal Grichuk | 1.5 | +129/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 52 | Randy Arozarena | 1.5 | +146/ −196 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 53 | Riley Greene | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 54 | Royce Lewis | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 55 | Sal Stewart | 1.5 | +119/ −158 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 56 | Samuel Basallo | 1.5 | +133/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 57 | Taylor Ward | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 58 | Travis Bazzana | 1.5 | +131/ −175 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 59 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | −106/ −126 | — | — | 48% | — | — | — |
| 60 | Trevor Larnach | 1.5 | +142/ −189 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 61 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +121/ −161 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 62 | Yandy Diaz | 1.5 | +135/ −180 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 63 | Yordan Alvarez | 1.5 | +110/ −146 | — | — | 45% | — | — | — |
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