Player Props · DraftKings Lines & Edges
June 7, 2026 MLB Total Bases Props
39 lines · 16 projected · Updated Jun 7, 2:09 PM ET
The Almanac's Take
Schwarber is the clear headliner — 32.5% edge over no-vig implied at a 79.5% model probability to clear 1.5 total bases, projecting 2.96. Harper sits right behind him at 27.2% edge with a 2.47 projection, and both carry high confidence. Worth noting: the Poisson model systematically undershoots the over on TB markets, so these edges read a touch conservative — the real numbers are slightly friendlier than printed. Vargas at 25.6% edge and Benintendi at 26.3% (medium confidence) round out the top tier if you want volume. The Phillies stack of Schwarber, Harper, and Turner is hard to ignore.
How we model these edges
- Model method:
- poisson_per_game
- Approximation quality:
- Approximate
- Bias direction:
- Model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- Edge definition:
- model_over_prob - no_vig(over_implied_prob)
- ·Poisson approximation under-estimates the tail of total bases; model edges on overs are biased low — real overs are slightly better than reported.
- ·Integer lines (e.g. line=2.0) are treated as 'over wins on ≥2', which slightly overstates over_prob vs sportsbook push rules. Half-point lines (X.5) — the near-universal case for these markets — are unaffected.
Planned improvement: Replace Poisson tail with ML simulation prop_probs (src/projections/ml/simulation.py) once the sim emits the needed thresholds (TB ≥1/≥4/≥5; full K grid) and the backtest validates calibration improvement.
Total Bases Board
16 of 39 projected| # | Player | Line | Odds O/U | Proj | Model % | Market % | Edge | Pick | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | −101/ −131 | 2.96 | 79% | 47% | +32.5 pp | Over | High |
| 2 | Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +115/ −153 | 2.47 | 71% | 43% | +27.2 pp | Over | High |
| 3 | Andrew Benintendi Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | 2.40 | 69% | 43% | +26.3 pp | Over | Med |
| 4 | Miguel Vargas Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +123/ −163 | 2.33 | 68% | 42% | +25.6 pp | Over | High |
| 5 | Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | 2.04 | 60% | 41% | +19.1 pp | Over | High |
| 6 | Colson Montgomery Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +125/ −167 | 2.03 | 60% | 42% | +18.7 pp | Over | High |
| 7 | Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +138/ −185 | 1.72 | 51% | 39% | +12.0 pp | Over | High |
| 8 | Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | −116/ −114 | 2.06 | 61% | 50% | +10.8 pp | Over | High |
| 9 | Sam Antonacci Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +122/ −163 | 1.77 | 53% | 42% | +10.7 pp | Over | Med |
| 10 | Bryson Stott Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +142/ −190 | 1.65 | 49% | 39% | +10.4 pp | Over | High |
| 11 | Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +105/ −139 | 1.87 | 56% | 46% | +10.2 pp | Over | High |
| 12 | Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | 1.71 | 51% | 41% | +9.8 pp | Over | High |
| 13 | Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +116/ −155 | 1.70 | 51% | 43% | +7.5 pp | Over | High |
| 14 | Ceddanne Rafaela Boston Red Sox | 1.5 | +139/ −185 | 1.45 | 43% | 39% | +3.3 pp | Over | High |
| 15 | Chase Meidroth Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | 1.5 | +160/ −215 | 1.24 | 35% | 36% | −0.9 pp | Under | High |
| 16 | Justin Crawford Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | 0.99 | 26% | 38% | −12.0 pp | Under | Med |
| 17 | Adley Rutschman | 1.5 | +137/ −183 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 18 | Amed Rosario | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 19 | Ben Rice | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 20 | Brandon Lowe | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 21 | Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 | +134/ −178 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 22 | Cody Bellinger | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 23 | Ernie Clement | 1.5 | +127/ −169 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 24 | George Springer | 1.5 | +118/ −157 | — | — | 43% | — | — | — |
| 25 | Gunnar Henderson | 1.5 | +126/ −168 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 26 | Jake Mangum | 1.5 | +156/ −209 | — | — | 37% | — | — | — |
| 27 | Matt Olson | 1.5 | +120/ −160 | — | — | 42% | — | — | — |
| 28 | Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 | +146/ −195 | — | — | 38% | — | — | — |
| 29 | Michael Harris II | 1.5 | +112/ −149 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 30 | Nathan Lukes | 1.5 | +143/ −191 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 31 | Nick Gonzales | 1.5 | +137/ −184 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 32 | Ozzie Albies | 1.5 | +136/ −181 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 33 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1.5 | +111/ −148 | — | — | 44% | — | — | — |
| 34 | Pete Alonso | 1.5 | +128/ −171 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
| 35 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | 1.5 | +105/ −140 | — | — | 46% | — | — | — |
| 36 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 | +137/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 37 | Spencer Horwitz | 1.5 | +136/ −182 | — | — | 40% | — | — | — |
| 38 | Trent Grisham | 1.5 | +139/ −186 | — | — | 39% | — | — | — |
| 39 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1.5 | +130/ −173 | — | — | 41% | — | — | — |
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