Kerry Carpenter vs Davis Martin

The Almanac's Take

Carpenter gets the platoon edge here as a lefty against Martin's right hand, which is the cleanest signal in this matchup. The problem is Carpenter's season line does the edge no favors — a .210/.262/.415 slash with a 30.8% strikeout rate and .677 OPS across 214 PA is a rough foundation. Martin isn't dominant at 4.27 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but a 7.9 K/9 against a free-swinger keeps him in control. The 11-PA head-to-head (3 hits, 1 HR, 97.2 mph average exit velo) is too thin to move the needle either way — call it a footnote.

Career head-to-head

AVG

.273

3-for-11

PA

11

HR

1

K

3

BB

0

Pitches seen

42

Avg exit velo

97.2 mph

Career meetings in the Statcast era (2015–present). Even a clear edge over a handful of plate appearances is a small sample — read it as color, not a projection.

Pitch mix to the batter

Plate-appearance log

• 2025-09-07Catcher Interf · 4-Seam Fastball 94.0 mph
• 2025-09-07Field Out · Changeup 89.8 mph · 102.9 mph EV
• 2025-09-07Double · Changeup 90.0 mph · 102.9 mph EV
• 2025-04-05Field Out · Cutter 88.5 mph · 69.7 mph EV
• 2025-04-05Home Run · Curveball 78.7 mph · 109.2 mph EV
• 2025-04-05Field Out · Cutter 88.6 mph · 104.8 mph EV
• 2024-08-26Single · Changeup 86.8 mph · 107.0 mph EV
• 2024-08-26Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 95.9 mph
• 2024-08-26Field Out · Changeup 89.7 mph · 83.7 mph EV
• 2022-09-17Strikeout · Curveball 80.0 mph
• 2022-09-17Strikeout · 4-Seam Fastball 94.9 mph