MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

August 16, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

2 games · 2 starters · Updated Aug 17, 11:33 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Two-game slate, so the choice is straightforward: Trevor Rogers against Tampa Bay is the arm worth building around. The Rays carry a .288 xwOBA against lefties, and Rogers projects for 6.2 IP, 5.9 Ks, and 1.7 ER — the cleanest projected line on the board by a wide margin. His 4.21 season ERA undersells the matchup advantage here, and confidence is flagged high. Lake Bachar is the only alternative, but 4.6 projected innings on short rest against Boston with a 5.14 ERA and an unfavorable matchup makes him a difficult roster at any number.

#1Trevor Rogers(LHP)

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · Final

GS
23
IP
125.7
W-L
8-8
ERA
4.15
WHIP
1.25
K/9
7.70
BB/9
2.50
K/BB
3.09

Projection

Matchup · neutral
IP
5.6
K
5.4
ER
1.5
H
4.5
HR
0.30
BB
1.1
QS%
48%
Win%
45%
DK pts
16.9
Floor
3.5
Ceiling
30.3
Rest
6d
  • Tropicana Field suppresses run scoring by 5%
  • Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
  • Tampa Bay Rays lineup has a 0.289 xwOBA vs LHP — favorable matchup

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Trevor Rogers.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-08-104.04224179L
2026-08-056.03209193W
2026-07-296.08406094
2026-07-247.06206088
2026-07-186.37118099

#2Lake Bachar(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox

PNC Park · Final

GS
4
IP
10.0
W-L
0-0
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.00
K/9
9.90
BB/9
2.70
K/BB
3.67

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable
IP
4.6
K
4.7
ER
1.8
H
4.1
HR
0.20
BB
1.5
QS%
15%
Win%
45%
DK pts
12.6
Floor
2.6
Ceiling
22.6
Rest
4d
  • Pitching on short rest (4 days)

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Lake Bachar.
DateIPHERBBKHRPDec
2026-08-123.03311246
2026-08-013.01002035S
2026-06-063.00003038
2026-03-303.01113042

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