MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

June 17, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

3 games · 4 starters · Updated Jun 17, 1:03 PM ET

The Almanac's Take

Four starters on a thin Wednesday slate, and every arm is carrying extended rest rust — factor that in across the board. Zack Littell is the headliner: 5.6 projected Ks over 5.6 IP against Kansas City in a favorable matchup, with the best floor here despite a 5.32 season ERA. Grant Holmes draws the eye with just 1.7 projected ER and a Giants lineup flagged as a poor fit for his arsenal, but 3.9 projected IP caps his ceiling hard. Adrian Houser and Nick Lodolo both land in unfavorable spots — Lodolo's pitch mix is flagged as a positive matchup for the Mets offense, making him the clearest fade.

#1Zack Littell(RHP)

vs Kansas City Royals

GS: 14
IP: 66.0
W-L: 6-5
ERA: 5.32
WHIP: 1.35
K/9: 5.30
BB/9: 2.90
K/BB: 1.86

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.6
K: 5.6
ER: 2.0
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.5
QS%: 44%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.8
Floor: 3.3
Ceiling: 28.3
Rest: 11d

Extended rest (11 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Zack Littell.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-06	5.0	2	1	1	4	0	64	W
2026-05-31	6.0	5	2	2	5	0	84	W
2026-05-25	7.0	5	1	2	7	0	106	W
2026-05-20	5.0	5	2	0	3	1	60	W
2026-05-15	5.0	2	0	2	3	0	87	W

#2Adrian Houser(RHP)

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves

GS: 13
IP: 65.0
W-L: 2-6
ERA: 5.54
WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 6.40
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 1.92

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 5.1
K: 5.1
ER: 2.6
H: 4.9
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.9
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 12.2
Floor: 2.5
Ceiling: 21.9
Rest: 8d

Extended rest (8 days) — rust risk

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Adrian Houser.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	4.3	4	3	0	6	1	77	L
2026-06-04	4.3	5	2	3	5	1	82	—
2026-05-30	3.7	8	4	2	4	1	92	L
2026-05-23	4.7	7	3	0	5	0	79	—
2026-05-17	6.0	4	1	5	3	0	93	W

#3Grant Holmes(RHP)

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants

GS: 13
IP: 66.7
W-L: 4-2
ERA: 4.05
WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 8.00
BB/9: 3.90
K/BB: 2.03

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 1.7
H: 3.6
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.8
Floor: 2.0
Ceiling: 17.6
Rest: 8d

Extended rest (8 days) — rust risk
San Francisco Giants struggles against this pitch mix — arsenal matchup favors pitcher

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Grant Holmes.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-09	3.7	4	3	2	2	1	67	—
2026-06-03	6.0	5	2	2	4	1	89	W
2026-05-29	4.7	7	3	1	5	2	80	—
2026-05-23	5.0	6	2	2	10	2	87	L
2026-05-17	6.0	5	0	1	4	0	87	W

#4Nick Lodolo(LHP)

vs New York Mets

GS: 7
IP: 38.0
W-L: 2-1
ERA: 5.21
WHIP: 1.42
K/9: 7.10
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.00

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.6
H: 4.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.2
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 8.0
Floor: 1.7
Ceiling: 14.3
Rest: 5d

New York Mets has hit this pitch mix well — arsenal matchup favors offense

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Nick Lodolo.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-06-12	5.3	5	2	1	5	0	96	—
2026-06-06	5.0	9	4	1	3	1	95	—
2026-05-31	6.7	5	3	4	4	2	100	W
2026-05-25	6.0	6	1	0	7	1	98	W
2026-05-18	5.7	3	3	5	3	1	97	—

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