MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 30, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

5 games · 9 starters · Updated Jun 13, 5:11 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Skenes is the clearest arm on the board — 6.3 projected strikeouts across 6.2 innings against St. Louis, with a 1.2 projected ER in what grades as an elite matchup, and 48°F conditions keeping the Cardinals lineup honest. Sánchez looks like the second-best projection (6.1 K, 1.54 season ERA) but carries a 7-day extended rest flag, so the rust discount is real and the medium confidence reflects it. Bryce Elder is the quieter name worth attention: favorable matchup against Detroit, 5.6 projected innings, and no flags dragging down the read. The rest of the slate thins out quickly — Webb and Valdez both sit at neutral matchups with extended rest concerns, and the bottom three all draw unfavorable grades.

#1Paul Skenes(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals

PNC Park · Final

GS: 13
IP: 70.7
W-L: 6-4
ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 10.10
BB/9: 1.50
K/BB: 6.58

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.2
H: 4.7
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.1
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 20.5
Floor: 4.2
Ceiling: 36.8
Rest: 6d

Cold conditions (48°F) suppress offense
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Paul Skenes.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	7.0	1	0	0	7	0	93	W
2026-04-18	4.0	3	0	0	5	0	64	—
2026-04-13	6.0	1	1	1	6	1	88	W
2026-04-07	6.3	2	1	2	6	1	87	W
2026-04-01	5.0	3	1	2	5	0	77	W

#2Cristopher Sánchez(LHP)

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants

Citizens Bank Park · Final

GS: 14
IP: 93.3
W-L: 8-2
ERA: 1.54
WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 10.90
BB/9: 1.70
K/BB: 6.28

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.6
K: 6.1
ER: 2.1
H: 5.0
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 43%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 16.5
Floor: 3.4
Ceiling: 29.6
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Cristopher Sánchez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-23	5.3	12	6	2	4	2	99	—
2026-04-18	6.0	8	0	1	8	0	93	L
2026-04-13	6.0	6	2	3	8	1	96	W
2026-04-07	5.0	11	2	0	6	0	92	L
2026-04-01	5.3	4	1	4	7	0	97	—

#3Bryce Elder(RHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers

Truist Park · Final

GS: 14
IP: 84.7
W-L: 5-3
ERA: 2.66
WHIP: 1.05
K/9: 7.50
BB/9: 2.70
K/BB: 2.84

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 5.6
K: 5.5
ER: 2.0
H: 4.9
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.8
QS%: 44%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 15.4
Floor: 3.2
Ceiling: 27.6
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Bryce Elder.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-25	7.0	6	3	1	2	0	92	—
2026-04-20	6.7	3	3	2	6	1	98	W
2026-04-15	5.7	4	0	2	7	0	79	W
2026-04-10	4.7	4	2	3	3	1	76	—
2026-04-04	7.0	4	0	1	8	0	89	L

#4Framber Valdez(LHP)

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 14
IP: 77.7
W-L: 3-5
ERA: 4.40
WHIP: 1.33
K/9: 7.10
BB/9: 3.40
K/BB: 2.10

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.1
K: 5.3
ER: 2.1
H: 4.6
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.8
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.9
Floor: 2.9
Ceiling: 24.9
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Framber Valdez.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	4.3	4	2	5	4	1	89	—
2026-04-19	6.0	3	1	2	7	1	98	W
2026-04-14	7.0	3	1	2	1	0	87	—
2026-04-08	5.0	10	8	2	2	0	87	L
2026-04-03	6.0	3	0	2	5	0	91	W

#5Logan Webb(RHP)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Final

GS: 10
IP: 62.3
W-L: 3-3
ERA: 3.47
WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 7.40
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 2.83

Projection

Matchup · neutral

IP: 5.1
K: 5.1
ER: 2.2
H: 4.7
HR: 0.30
BB: 1.6
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 13.3
Floor: 2.7
Ceiling: 23.9
Rest: 7d

Extended rest (7 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Logan Webb.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-23	7.0	7	3	2	5	0	98	L
2026-04-17	6.0	7	4	2	6	1	99	W
2026-04-11	6.0	5	4	3	6	1	98	L
2026-04-05	7.0	7	1	1	3	0	92	—
2026-03-31	6.0	3	3	4	5	0	104	W

#6Chris Bassitt(RHP)

Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final

GS: 11
IP: 50.3
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 5.72
WHIP: 1.73
K/9: 6.30
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 1.67

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.4
ER: 2.1
H: 4.2
HR: 0.10
BB: 1.7
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 11.0
Floor: 2.3
Ceiling: 19.7
Rest: 8d

Extended rest (8 days) — rust risk
low sample

Last 4 Starts

Recent starts for Chris Bassitt.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-22	5.3	8	5	2	3	2	88	W
2026-04-17	5.0	4	0	4	2	0	100	—
2026-04-11	4.7	7	1	1	2	0	89	—
2026-03-30	4.3	6	4	4	3	0	100	L

#7Hunter Dobbins(RHP)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park · Final

GS: 4
IP: 17.3
W-L: 1-0
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.38
K/9: 9.90
BB/9: 3.60
K/BB: 2.71

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.5
ER: 2.0
H: 4.1
HR: 0.30
BB: 4.1
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 10.0
Floor: 2.1
Ceiling: 17.9
Rest: 5d

Cold conditions (48°F) suppress offense
low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#8Michael Lorenzen(RHP)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 15
IP: 65.7
W-L: 2-8
ERA: 7.54
WHIP: 1.89
K/9: 7.50
BB/9: 3.30
K/BB: 2.29

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.9
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.0
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.5
Floor: 2.0
Ceiling: 17.0
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Michael Lorenzen.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	7.0	7	1	0	3	0	90	W
2026-04-19	5.0	7	3	1	3	0	88	—
2026-04-08	5.7	7	1	2	4	0	100	W
2026-04-03	3.0	12	9	2	2	2	77	L
2026-03-28	4.3	7	3	0	4	1	93	—

#9Andrew Abbott(LHP)

Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 14
IP: 74.7
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 6.40
BB/9: 4.00
K/BB: 1.61

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 3.9
K: 3.8
ER: 2.0
H: 3.8
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.5
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.0
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.1
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

Recent starts for Andrew Abbott.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-04-24	4.0	6	5	2	4	2	89	—
2026-04-18	4.7	6	3	3	3	0	97	—
2026-04-12	3.0	8	7	2	1	1	71	L
2026-04-07	5.3	6	2	2	2	0	91	—
2026-04-01	5.7	5	4	3	5	1	88	L

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