MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 1, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

4 games · 5 starters · Updated Jun 13, 5:11 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Small slate today — five starters, all flagged low confidence, so treat every projection loosely. Gausman against Colorado is the standout: 6.9 projected Ks over 6.2 IP with just 0.9 projected ER is the best strikeout-to-run line on the board, and the favorable matchup holds up. Sale draws a favorable tag too and owns the sharpest season ERA at 2.21, though his 6.6 projected Ks trail Gausman slightly. Peralta and Skenes both carry elite matchup grades — Peralta projects 6.4 Ks, Skenes 6.3 — but neither separates cleanly on run prevention at 1.6 and 1.8 projected ER respectively. Severino is the clear fade: 4.5 projected IP, 4.2 Ks, an unfavorable matchup, and the highest projected ER at 2.2.

#1Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies

Rogers Centre · Final

GS: 14
IP: 80.0
W-L: 4-4
ERA: 3.71
WHIP: 1.09
K/9: 8.90
BB/9: 1.60
K/BB: 5.64

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.9
ER: 0.9
H: 4.5
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 22.9
Floor: 4.7
Ceiling: 41.1
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Kevin Gausman.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	1	1	0	11	1	83	—

#2Freddy Peralta(RHP)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium · Final

GS: 14
IP: 78.0
W-L: 4-5
ERA: 3.81
WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 9.10
BB/9: 3.70
K/BB: 2.47

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.4
ER: 1.6
H: 5.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.4
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.5
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 35.0
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Freddy Peralta.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-26	5.0	6	4	0	7	2	80	W

#3Chris Sale(LHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Athletics

Truist Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 73.3
W-L: 7-5
ERA: 2.21
WHIP: 1.00
K/9: 10.30
BB/9: 2.10
K/BB: 4.94

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 1.9
H: 5.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.0
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 34.1
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Chris Sale.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	3	0	3	6	0	88	W

#4Paul Skenes(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 13
IP: 70.7
W-L: 6-4
ERA: 3.31
WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 10.10
BB/9: 1.50
K/BB: 6.58

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 3.1
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 17.9
Floor: 3.7
Ceiling: 32.1
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#5Luis Severino(RHP)

Athletics vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 62.7
W-L: 2-6
ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.50
K/BB: 2.10

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.2
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 3.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.3
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.7
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Luis Severino.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	5.0	3	2	3	3	0	84	—

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