MLB Starting Pitchers · Projections & Recent Form

April 1, 2026 MLB Starting Pitchers

4 games · 5 starters · Updated Jul 31, 6:39 AM ET

The Almanac's Take

Thin five-game slate and every projection carries a low-confidence tag, so treat these numbers as directional, not firm. Gausman against Colorado is the cleanest line — 6.9 projected Ks across 6.2 IP with only 0.9 projected ER in a favorable matchup, and the dome neutralizes any April weather risk. Sale's 1.89 season ERA is the standout number on the board, and his 6.6 projected Ks against the Athletics in a favorable spot make him worth stacking around despite the slightly higher 1.9 projected ER. Skenes has no projections at all — just a 3.15 season ERA and an opponent — skip him until coverage improves. Severino draws Atlanta in an unfavorable matchup with only 4.5 projected IP; he's the clear fade.

#1Kevin Gausman(RHP)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Colorado Rockies

Rogers Centre · Final

GS: 22
IP: 121.7
W-L: 4-10
ERA: 4.59
WHIP: 1.27
K/9: 9.10
BB/9: 2.60
K/BB: 3.51

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.9
ER: 1.0
H: 4.5
HR: 0.20
BB: 0.3
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 22.7
Floor: 4.7
Ceiling: 40.7
Rest: 5d

Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Kevin Gausman.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	1	1	0	11	1	83	—

#2Freddy Peralta(RHP)

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium · Final

GS: 22
IP: 113.7
W-L: 5-9
ERA: 4.83
WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 8.90
BB/9: 3.80
K/BB: 2.35

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.4
ER: 1.7
H: 5.0
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.4
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 19.3
Floor: 4.0
Ceiling: 34.6
Rest: 6d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Freddy Peralta.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-26	5.0	6	4	0	7	2	80	W

#3Chris Sale(LHP)

Atlanta Braves vs Athletics

Truist Park · Final

GS: 19
IP: 112.0
W-L: 11-6
ERA: 2.01
WHIP: 0.98
K/9: 10.80
BB/9: 1.80
K/BB: 5.87

Projection

Matchup · favorable

IP: 6.2
K: 6.6
ER: 2.0
H: 5.2
HR: 0.20
BB: 1.8
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 18.8
Floor: 3.9
Ceiling: 33.7
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Chris Sale.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	6.0	3	0	3	6	0	88	W

#4Paul Skenes(RHP)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

Great American Ball Park · Final

GS: 21
IP: 115.3
W-L: 9-8
ERA: 3.98
WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 10.80
BB/9: 2.00
K/BB: 5.56

Projection

Matchup · elite

IP: 6.2
K: 6.3
ER: 1.8
H: 5.1
HR: 0.20
BB: 3.1
QS%: 80%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 17.9
Floor: 3.7
Ceiling: 32.1
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 5 Starts

No completed starts on record.

#5Luis Severino(RHP)

Athletics vs Atlanta Braves

Truist Park · Final

GS: 12
IP: 62.7
W-L: 2-6
ERA: 4.16
WHIP: 1.47
K/9: 9.30
BB/9: 4.50
K/BB: 2.10

Projection

Matchup · unfavorable

IP: 4.5
K: 4.2
ER: 2.2
H: 4.3
HR: 0.40
BB: 3.4
QS%: 15%
Win%: 45%
DK pts: 9.3
Floor: 1.9
Ceiling: 16.7
Rest: 5d

low sample

Last 1 Start

Recent starts for Luis Severino.
Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	P	Dec
2026-03-27	5.0	3	2	3	3	0	84	—

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