Week 15 · 16 games · December 14, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:06 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Atlanta pulled off the tightest win of the week, beating Tampa Bay 29-28 as a 6-point road underdog — the only true upset on a slate where most money landed on the right side. The Chargers quietly knocked off Kansas City 16-13, with LAC winning outright despite the Chiefs being favored by 5.5 at home. Baltimore's 24-0 demolition of Cincinnati was the most lopsided result, a shutout that barely registered a drama pulse. LA-Detroit combined for 75 points, the highest total on the board, while the Rams covered a 5.5-point home number against the NFC's best. Chalk week overall, with Atlanta and LA providing the only real stories worth revisiting.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
Atlanta Falcons29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers28
UpsetInstant classic · 6.0Over 57Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 0:49(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q4 · 3:40(3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
Final
Arizona Cardinals20
Houston Texans40
Competitive · 1.6Over 60NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:1115-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to ARI 1. 86-J.Brooks to ARI 28 for 27 yards (56-J.Hill). FUMBLES (56-J.Hill), RECOVERED by HOU-33-D.Ogunbowale at ARI 28. 33-D.Ogunbowale to ARI 22 for 6 yards (47-C.Tindall).
Q2 · 13:45(13:45) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears
Final
Cleveland Browns3
Chicago Bears31
Competitive · 1.7Under 34Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 12:14(12:14) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 7 for 4 yards (26-N.Wright; 22-E.Hicks).
Q1 · 11:29(11:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CLE 42 for 18 yards (50-R.Sunahara).
Q2 · 4:30(4:30) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 16-I.Bond to CHI 33 for 42 yards (31-K.Byard).
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Final
Buffalo Bills35
New England Patriots31
Back-and-forth · 3.7Over 66Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 10:03(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:22(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 10:10(10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Los Angeles Chargers16
Kansas City Chiefs13
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.8Under 29GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
Q4 · 13:46(13:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [52-K.Mack]. KC-80-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.
Q4 · 12:47(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 29-K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LAC 1. 0-D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (29-K.Hunt).
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Las Vegas Raiders0
Philadelphia Eagles31
Wire-to-wire · 1.3Under 31Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 13:32(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q1 · 3:36(3:36) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett sacked at LV 48 for -8 yards (55-B.Graham). PENALTY on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 48. Penalty on PHI-33-C.DeJean, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 1:16(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith to LV 23 for 44 yards (26-D.Porter).
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Final
Washington Commanders29
New York Giants21
UpsetBack-and-forth · 3.6Over 50MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 85-N.Brown to NYG 29 for 28 yards (8-J.Holland).
Q2 · 1:20(1:20) 15-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to WAS 37, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Lane for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined.
Q2 · 0:26(:26) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 0-M.Sainristil at WAS 21. 0-M.Sainristil to NYG 24 for 55 yards (13-J.Hyatt).
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
New York Jets20
Jacksonville Jaguars48
Wire-to-wire · 1.5Over 68TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:49(8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).
Q1 · 6:35(6:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 2:45(2:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington to NYJ 15 for 33 yards (26-I.Oliver) [9-W.McDonald].
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Final
Baltimore Ravens24
Cincinnati Bengals0
Competitive · 2.2Under 24Paycor Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 4:42(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:48(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [41-D.Jones] at BAL 14. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (30-C.Brown).
Q2 · 9:46(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Final
Green Bay Packers26
Denver Broncos34
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.1Over 60Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q4 · 9:03(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
Q3 · 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:12(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.
Q4 · 6:59(6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 23 for 0 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Penalty on NO-77-D.Radunz, Offensive Holding, declined.
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks
Final
Indianapolis Colts16
Seattle Seahawks18
Back-and-forth · 5.1Under 34Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:22(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 · 0:52(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 · 0:11(:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant (21-D.Witherspoon) at SEA 42. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 42 for no gain.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Tennessee Titans24
San Francisco 49ers37
Competitive · 1.9Over 61Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 7:52(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 84-G.Helm for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:39(:39) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-D.Robinson ran ob at TEN 33 for 30 yards.
Q2 · 6:56(6:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (35-K.Elam).
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Detroit Lions34
Los Angeles Rams41
Back-and-forth · 4.4Over 75SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:24(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
Q2 · 8:31(8:31) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at LA 13 for 52 yards (53-N.Landman).
Q1 · 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 1-J.Williams to LA 38 for 25 yards (53-N.Landman).
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Final
Minnesota Vikings34
Dallas Cowboys26
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.0Over 60AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 12:24(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q1 · 14:09(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).
Q3 · 2:49(2:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to DAL 14 for 23 yards (34-S.Revel).
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Miami Dolphins15
Pittsburgh Steelers28
Competitive · 2.2Over 43Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:01(8:01) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Samuel at PIT 19. 22-A.Samuel to PIT 19 for no gain (17-J.Waddle).
Q2 · 0:21(:21) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:19(2:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell pushed ob at MIA 32 for 9 yards (23-J.Jones).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.