Week 10 · 14 games · November 9, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:07 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The headliner was IND-ATL going to overtime with a drama index well above anything else on the slate — Colts won 31-25 to cover a 6.5-point spread that looked generous by the end, and the 56 combined points pushed the over. PHI sneaked out of Green Bay 10-7 in a grinding under, upsetting the home Packers despite GB being favored by 1.5. The Rams ran up 42 on San Francisco — who had been 5.5-point favorites — for the week's cleanest road demolition. NE also won outright in Tampa against the spread, while Denver needed a 10-7 final to escape Las Vegas despite being 9.5-point favorites.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Final
Las Vegas Raiders7
Denver Broncos10
Back-and-forth · 4.8Under 17Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 7:16(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
Q3 · 5:34(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Tillman at DEN 44. 92-D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (87-M.Mayer).
Q4 · 4:30(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
Final (OT)
Atlanta Falcons25
Indianapolis Colts31
Instant classic · 6.9Over 56Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 6:16(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 6:50(6:50) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at ATL 33 for 23 yards (24-A.Terrell).
OT · 8:19(8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -12 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Final
New Orleans Saints17
Carolina Panthers7
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.0Under 24Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 9:31(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:34(4:34) 9-B.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 19, touched at NO 19, RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at NO 17.
Q4 · 13:00(13:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 46. 1-A.Taylor pushed ob at CAR 43 for 11 yards (4-T.McMillan).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars29
Houston Texans36
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.3Over 65NRG Stadium
Houston Texans win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:37(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:10(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at HOU 40. 22-J.Jones to HOU 40 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Final
Cleveland Browns20
New York Jets27
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.1Over 47MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Q1 · 6:3425-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:01(6:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Baltimore Ravens27
Minnesota Vikings19
Back-and-forth · 3.6Under 46U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 10:1933-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
Q1 · 10:40(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (12-A.Gilman).
Q3 · 12:55(12:55) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 2. 44-M.Humphrey ran ob at BAL 29 for 27 yards (74-D.Jackson; 33-A.Jones).
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Final
Buffalo Bills13
Miami Dolphins30
UpsetCompetitive · 1.8Under 43Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 · 7:24(7:24) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle pushed ob at BUF 35 for 15 yards (24-C.Bishop). PENALTY on BUF-24-C.Bishop, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 35.
Q3 · 6:05(6:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Melifonwu at MIA -2. Touchback.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
New England Patriots28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers23
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.7Over 51Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Q4 · 5:25(5:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.
Q1 · 0:11(:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell].
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Final
New York Giants20
Chicago Bears24
Back-and-forth · 4.9Under 44Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:54(1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:14(2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
Q4 · 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Final
Arizona Cardinals22
Seattle Seahawks44
Wire-to-wire · 0.9Over 66Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 9:32(9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 11:01(11:01) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:15(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 29 for -12 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 22. 0-D.Lawrence for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders
Final
Detroit Lions44
Washington Commanders22
Competitive · 1.6Over 66FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:29(8:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:55(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (23-T.Amos).
Q3 · 7:09(7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Los Angeles Rams42
San Francisco 49ers26
Competitive · 2.1Over 68Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 5:41(5:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:07(9:07) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Jennings (1-E.Forbes).
Q1 · 13:20(13:20) 23-K.Williams left guard to SF 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Winters; 6-M.Mustapha).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers10
Los Angeles Chargers25
Competitive · 2.7Under 35SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 2:16(2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 4-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at PIT 48. 27-R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (14-K.Gainwell).
Q2 · 13:14(13:14) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q1 · 5:17(5:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT -3 for -12 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], and recovers at PIT -5. 8-A.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Final
Philadelphia Eagles10
Green Bay Packers7
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.0Under 17Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:30(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 17-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Q1 · 0:59(:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right tackle to GB 14 for 10 yards (29-X.McKinney, 56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper), RECOVERED by GB-25-K.Nixon at GB 14. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 36 for 22 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.