Week 6 · 15 games · October 12, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:04 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
Chicago's 25-24 win at Washington — the week's highest drama index — was a one-point road win by a team that came in as a 5.5-point underdog, making it the clearest upset on the slate. Carolina pulled a similar trick against Dallas, covering and winning outright at home despite being a 3-point underdog. The Rams' 17-3 dismantling of Baltimore, a team favored by 7, was the other ugly result worth noting — a 14-point road win held well under the total. New England also won outright in New Orleans despite being a 3.5-point road dog.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Final
Philadelphia Eagles17
New York Giants34
UpsetCompetitive · 3.1Over 51MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 11:36(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 28-C.Flott at NYG 9. 28-C.Flott pushed ob at PHI 23 for 68 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Q1 · 11:14(11:14) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass deep right to 89-L.Humphrey to PHI 22 for 34 yards (7-K.Ringo).
Q2 · 1:22(1:22) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Final
Denver Broncos13
New York Jets11
Back-and-forth · 4.9Under 24MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
Q4 · 8:15(8:15) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 26 yards (8-A.Cisco).
Q3 · 5:02(5:02) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Franklin. PENALTY on DEN-77-Q.Meinerz, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-11-T.Franklin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Final
Los Angeles Chargers29
Miami Dolphins27
Back-and-forth · 5.3Over 56Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
Q4 · 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:09(:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Final
Los Angeles Rams17
Baltimore Ravens3
Back-and-forth · 3.5Under 20M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 1:29(1:29) 9-M.Stafford sacked at BAL 44 for -7 yards (94-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (94-J.Jenkins) [94-J.Jenkins], touched at BAL 46, RECOVERED by BAL-94-J.Jenkins at BAL 48. 94-J.Jenkins to LA 41 for 11 yards (73-S.Avila).
Q3 · 12:20(12:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 23-K.Williams to BAL 3 for 30 yards. Penalty on BAL-32-T.Simpson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 0:12(:12) 67-C.Bullock reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to LA 3 for -2 yards (8-J.Verse).
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Final
Dallas Cowboys27
Carolina Panthers30
UpsetBack-and-forth · 5.2Over 57Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:31(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to DAL 33 for 7 yards (26-D.Bland).
Q4 · 11:38(11:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at CAR 20 for 45 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade) [95-D.Brown].
Q1 · 2:13(2:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 6-D.Wilson at CAR 46. 6-D.Wilson ran ob at CAR 25 for 21 yards (79-I.Ekwonu). PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 25.
Q2 · 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye Aborted. 65-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at NO 45, recovered by NE-10-D.Maye at NE 47.
Q1 · 11:03(11:03) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:50(8:50) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to 50 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss). New England challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to NO 49 for 13 yards (53-C.Elliss; 14-R.Spillane). FUMBLES (53-C.Elliss), RECOVERED by NE-31-C.Woodson at NE 49.
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts
Final
Arizona Cardinals27
Indianapolis Colts31
Back-and-forth · 5.7Over 58Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].
Q4 · 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (35-J.Edwards).
Q2 · 14:03(14:03) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 2-Ma.Wilson at IND 36. 2-Ma.Wilson to IND 27 for 9 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Final
Cleveland Browns9
Pittsburgh Steelers23
Competitive · 2.9Under 32Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 11:59(11:59) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 35 for 8 yards (42-J.Pierre; 15-B.Skowronek). PENALTY on CLE-99-C.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 27 - No Play.
Q1 · 14:55(14:55) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington to CLE 36 for 36 yards (7-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (7-T.Campbell), ball out of bounds at CLE 27.
Q2 · 11:06(11:06) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Seattle Seahawks20
Jacksonville Jaguars12
Back-and-forth · 3.6Under 32TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 8:42(8:42) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:08(1:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at SEA 32 for -9 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
Q1 · 2:38(2:38) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas to SEA 35 for 19 yards (8-C.Bryant).
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders
Final
Tennessee Titans10
Las Vegas Raiders20
Competitive · 2.1Under 30Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 6:12(6:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 3 for -9 yards (45-D.White). FUMBLES (45-D.White) [45-D.White], RECOVERED by LV-9-T.Wilson at TEN 2.
Q1 · 7:55(7:55) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to TEN 36 for 7 yards (33-C.Gray).
Q1 · 2:51(2:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 0-C.Ridley to 50 for 18 yards (36-K.Kelly). Penalty on LV-30-D.Holmes, Defensive Holding, declined.
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers
Final
Cincinnati Bengals18
Green Bay Packers27
Competitive · 2.9Over 45Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:51(8:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone (20-D.Turner) [44-D.Knight] at CIN 11. 22-G.Stone ran ob at CIN 36 for 25 yards (10-J.Love).
Q1 · 13:37(13:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to CIN 35 for 7 yards (90-K.Jenkins).
Q2 · 5:46(5:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 35 for 35 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
San Francisco 49ers19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers30
Back-and-forth · 3.8Over 49Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 2:49(2:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 15-T.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne to TB 33 for 56 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q1 · 10:46(10:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 22-K.Vildor at SF 25. 22-K.Vildor to SF 12 for 13 yards (77-D.Puni).
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Final
Detroit Lions17
Kansas City Chiefs30
Competitive · 3.0Under 47GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 7:01(7:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy (12-T.Harper) [34-A.Anzalone].
Q2 · 12:56(12:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-20-N.Williams was injured during the play.
Q1 · 1:14(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:22(11:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:08(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 88-D.Knox for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to BUF 31 for 20 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
Final
Chicago Bears25
Washington Commanders24
UpsetInstant classic · 6.3Under 49FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 · 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 73-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 5-J.Daniels FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-26-N.Wright at CHI 44.
Q4 · 10:36(10:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.