Week 3 · 16 games · September 21, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:08 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
The tightest finish on the slate was SF edging ARI 16–15, a one-point margin that hit the under hard at 31 total points — and the 49ers were only 1.5-point favorites to begin with. Cleveland pulled the week's biggest upset, beating Green Bay 13–10 as 8.5-point underdogs, a result that flatters the Browns more than any drama index can. Detroit went into Baltimore and won 38–30, covering as 4.5-point road underdogs and pushing the total well over, while Chicago handled Dallas 31–14 as home underdogs. Washington's 41–24 blowout of Las Vegas, with the Commanders entering as 2.5-point dogs, rounds out a week where underdogs went on a tear.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Final
Miami Dolphins21
Buffalo Bills31
Back-and-forth · 3.8Over 52New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 3:06(3:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 8-T.Bernard at BUF 17. 8-T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Q4 · 10:20(10:20) 16-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin. PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.
Q4 · 7:23(7:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings
Final
Cincinnati Bengals10
Minnesota Vikings48
Wire-to-wire · 1.3Over 58U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 6:25(6:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep right intended for 30-C.Brown INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers (22-H.Smith) [0-I.Pace] at MIN 13. 2-I.Rodgers for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 86-N.Fant to MIN 32 for 4 yards (2-I.Rodgers). FUMBLES (2-I.Rodgers), RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 34. 2-I.Rodgers for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:01(13:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Final
Atlanta Falcons0
Carolina Panthers30
UpsetCompetitive · 1.9Under 30Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 8:18(8:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan pushed ob at ATL 16 for 23 yards (3-J.Bates).
Q1 · 5:14(5:14) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-49-L.McCullough. 23-T.Etienne MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ATL-23-D.Hellams at CAR 33.
Q3 · 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Smith-Wade at ATL 11. 26-C.Smith-Wade for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 0:27(:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
Q4 · 3:18(3:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 9-G.Delpit at GB 29. 9-G.Delpit pushed ob at GB 4 for 25 yards (75-S.Rhyan).
Q4 · 0:02(:02) 25-A.Szmyt 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. Penalty on GB-25-K.Nixon, Defensive Offside, declined.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Houston Texans10
Jacksonville Jaguars17
Back-and-forth · 4.1Under 27TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 9:25(9:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at HOU 10 for 46 yards (4-K.Lassiter).
Q4 · 3:58(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to JAX 21 for 10 yards (3-T.Campbell). FUMBLES (3-T.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-0-D.Lloyd at JAX 15. 0-D.Lloyd to JAX 17 for 2 yards (86-D.Schultz; 19-X.Hutchinson).
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Los Angeles Rams26
Philadelphia Eagles33
Back-and-forth · 5.1Over 59Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:51(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:48(4:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown ran ob at LA 15 for 23 yards (2-J.McCollough).
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers21
New England Patriots14
Back-and-forth · 4.7Under 35Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:20(2:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:17(13:17) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to PIT 1 for 1 yard (97-Ca.Heyward). FUMBLES (97-Ca.Heyward), touched at PIT 0, RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT -1. Touchback.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Final
Indianapolis Colts41
Tennessee Titans20
Competitive · 2.2Over 61Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 14:20(14:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at TEN 32. 23-K.Moore for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:45(12:45) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Q1 · 10:43(10:43) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 1-J.Downs ran ob at TEN 13 for 29 yards (37-A.Hooker) [49-A.Key].
New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final
New York Jets27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers29
Back-and-forth · 4.2Over 56Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:00(2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 · 1:36(1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (8-A.Cisco).
Las Vegas Raiders at Washington Commanders
Final
Las Vegas Raiders24
Washington Commanders41
Competitive · 2.4Over 65FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 3:42(3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-J.McNichols up the middle for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 15:008-D.Carlson kicks 61 yards from LV 35 to WAS 4. 1-D.Samuel to LV 27 for 69 yards (27-T.McCollum).
Q1 · 8:02(8:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end to LV 27 for 22 yards (99-T.Booker). FUMBLES (99-T.Booker), touched at LV 21, RECOVERED by LV-36-K.Kelly at LV 21. 36-K.Kelly to LV 24 for 3 yards (19-C.Moore).
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Final
New Orleans Saints13
Seattle Seahawks44
Wire-to-wire · 0.8Over 57Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 7:51(7:51) 32-K.Kroeger punts 61 yards to SEA 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-T.Horton for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:42(11:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at NO 26 for 29 yards (1-A.Taylor).
Q1 · 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 41-A.Kamara.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Denver Broncos20
Los Angeles Chargers23
Back-and-forth · 4.9Under 43SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 2:44(2:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 13-K.Allen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-N.Bonitto].
Q4 · 0:05(:05) 11-C.Dicker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Q2 · 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Final
Arizona Cardinals15
San Francisco 49ers16
Instant classic · 6.0Under 31Levi's Stadium
San Francisco 49ers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:04(:04) 18-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Q4 · 3:26(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 6 for 0 yards (2-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on SF-77-D.Puni, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play.
Q4 · 1:54(1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears
Final
Dallas Cowboys14
Chicago Bears31
UpsetCompetitive · 2.5Under 45Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 6:27(6:27) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 4-D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (54-S.Williams).
Q1 · 4:21(4:21) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 10-L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:40(10:40) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 15-R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants
Final
Kansas City Chiefs22
New York Giants9
Back-and-forth · 3.7Under 31MetLife Stadium
New York Giants win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep middle to 5-M.Brown. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass Interference, 52 yards, enforced at KC 37 - No Play.
Q2 · 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Watson at KC -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 1:49(1:49) 44-C.Skattebo right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
Final
Detroit Lions38
Baltimore Ravens30
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.7Over 68M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 2:53(2:53) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to BAL 13 for 72 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q4 · 8:31(8:31) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 21 for no gain (97-A.Hutchinson). FUMBLES (97-A.Hutchinson), touched at BAL 22, RECOVERED by DET-4-D.Reed at BAL 19. 4-D.Reed to BAL 16 for 3 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q4 · 15:00(15:00) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.