Week 1 · 16 games · September 7, 2025 · Updated Jul 9, 12:04 AM ET
The Almanac's Take
BUF-BAL put up 81 combined points in a one-score finish — that's the number that defines the opener. SF-SEA and TB-ATL both posted drama indexes near 6.1, back-and-forth finishes that the scoreline (17-13, 23-20) undersells. CIN's one-point win in Cleveland was the tightest margin on the slate, with the Bengals overcoming a 5.5-point home spread on the road. Two quiet upsets worth noting: LA beat Houston as a 3.5-point home dog, and NO dropped a home game to Arizona despite being favored by 6. Unders hit in ten of twelve games.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Final
Dallas Cowboys20
Philadelphia Eagles24
Back-and-forth · 4.2Under 44Lincoln Financial Field
Philadelphia Eagles win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 4:52(4:52) 24-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 10 for 1 yard (30-J.Campbell; 94-B.Young). FUMBLES (30-J.Campbell), RECOVERED by PHI-27-Q.Mitchell at PHI 10. 27-Q.Mitchell to PHI 16 for 6 yards (4-D.Prescott).
Q3 · 6:21(6:21) (Shotgun) 24-M.Sanders left end to PHI 11 for 49 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q2 · 1:53(1:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 2-J.Dotson to DAL 26 for 51 yards (20-K.Elam).
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Final
Kansas City Chiefs21
Los Angeles Chargers27
UpsetCompetitive · 3.4Over 48SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 12:10(12:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:24(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 5-M.Brown to LAC 9 for 49 yards (2-E.Molden) [52-K.Mack].
Q2 · 0:03(:03) 7-H.Butker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Q2 · 2:07(2:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to NO 20 for 25 yards (23-J.Blackmon; 4-K.McKinstry).
Q2 · 13:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison ran ob at NO 14 for 45 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
Q1 · 8:11(8:11) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 18-M.Harrison (4-K.McKinstry). PENALTY on NO-4-K.McKinstry, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at NO 47 - No Play.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final
Carolina Panthers10
Jacksonville Jaguars26
Competitive · 2.9Under 36TIAA Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 8:3239-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2The game has resumed. Total delay time of 1 hour and 17 minutes.
Q2 · 12:52(12:52) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 17-X.Legette INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun (29-E.Murray) at CAR 35. 23-F.Oluokun to CAR 35 for no gain (0-J.Sanders). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers34
New York Jets32
Back-and-forth · 5.5Over 66MetLife Stadium
New York Jets win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 14:579-C.Boswell kicks 64 yards from PIT 35 to NYJ 1. 3-X.Gipson to NYJ 20 for 19 yards (14-K.Gainwell). FUMBLES (14-K.Gainwell), RECOVERED by PIT-15-B.Skowronek at NYJ 22. 15-B.Skowronek to NYJ 22 for no gain (3-X.Gipson).
Q4 · 1:08(1:08) 9-C.Boswell 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Q4 · 0:25(:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (5-J.Ramsey). NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.
Q4 · 0:06(:06) 6-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 2:23(2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Final
Cincinnati Bengals17
Cleveland Browns16
Back-and-forth · 5.8Under 33FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:30(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Turner at CLE 47. 20-D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (34-J.Ford).
Q4 · 2:25(2:25) 25-A.Szmyt 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Q3 · 4:59(4:59) 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CLE 36. 27-J.Battle to CLE 29 for 7 yards (44-H.Fannin; 34-J.Ford). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-J.Flacco pass deep middle intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CLE 36. 27-J.Battle to CLE 34 for 2 yards (3-J.Jeudy).
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Final
Miami Dolphins8
Indianapolis Colts33
Wire-to-wire · 1.3Under 41Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:21(8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Bynum at IND 17. 0-C.Bynum to IND 31 for 14 yards (28-D.Achane). PENALTY on IND-44-Z.Franklin, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 31.
Q2 · 14:23(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 38 for -6 yards (23-K.Moore). FUMBLES (23-K.Moore) [23-K.Moore], RECOVERED by IND-4-X.Howard at MIA 44. 4-X.Howard to MIA 42 for 2 yards (72-J.Savaiinaea).
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Final
Las Vegas Raiders20
New England Patriots13
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.4Under 33Gillette Stadium
New England Patriots win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 4:05(4:05) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Hollins. PENALTY on LV-36-K.Kelly, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
Q1 · 12:23(12:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 1-T.Tucker for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:56(:56) 8-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Final
New York Giants6
Washington Commanders21
Competitive · 2.6Under 27FedExField
Washington Commanders win probability
Biggest swings
Q2 · 0:07(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on WAS-5-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 4.
Q2 · 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers (3-W.Harris). PENALTY on WAS-91-D.Wise, Illegal Use of Hands, 1 yard, enforced at WAS 2 - No Play.
Q2 · 13:17(13:17) 10-T.Way punts 64 yards to NYG 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 15 for 10 yards (57-N.Bellore; 35-P.Butler).
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Final
Tennessee Titans12
Denver Broncos20
Back-and-forth · 5.1Under 32Empower Field at Mile High
Denver Broncos win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 14:16(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [98-J.Simmons] at DEN 42. 25-X.Woods ran ob at DEN 26 for 16 yards (77-Q.Meinerz; 60-L.Wattenberg).
Q4 · 11:53(11:53) 3-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-54-D.Mausi at DEN 24.
Q2 · 7:10(7:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked at DEN 40 for -8 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons) [98-J.Simmons], RECOVERED by TEN-69-S.Joseph at DEN 38. 69-S.Joseph to DEN 38 for no gain (69-M.McGlinchey).
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Final
San Francisco 49ers17
Seattle Seahawks13
Instant classic · 6.1Under 30Lumen Field
Seattle Seahawks win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:42(:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 16 for -7 yards (97-N.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-N.Bosa), touched at SF 13, RECOVERED by SF-97-N.Bosa at SF 16. PENALTY on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced at SF 16.
Q4 · 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at SF 14 for 40 yards (0-R.Green).
Q4 · 2:38(2:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (8-C.Bryant).
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Final
Detroit Lions13
Green Bay Packers27
Competitive · 2.1Under 40Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers win probability
Biggest swings
Q1 · 11:15(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at DET 31 for 11 yards (31-K.Joseph).
Q1 · 9:31(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:27(9:27) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to DET 17 for 48 yards (4-D.Reed; 6-T.Arnold).
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams
Final
Houston Texans9
Los Angeles Rams14
Back-and-forth · 4.5Under 23SoFi Stadium
Los Angeles Rams win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 1:51(1:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale to LA 18 for 7 yards (53-N.Landman). FUMBLES (53-N.Landman), RECOVERED by LA-55-B.Fiske at LA 24.
Q4 · 4:17(4:17) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (0-A.Al-Shaair). Houston challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson to HOU 12 for no gain (0-A.Al-Shaair). FUMBLES (0-A.Al-Shaair), touched at HOU 19, RECOVERED by HOU-55-D.Hunter at HOU 19.
Q2 · 0:57(:57) 23-K.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Final
Baltimore Ravens40
Buffalo Bills41
UpsetBack-and-forth · 4.7Over 81New Era Field
Buffalo Bills win probability
Biggest swings
Q4 · 0:03(:03) 15-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.
Q4 · 1:33(1:33) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to BUF 20, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q4 · 0:46(:46) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 0-K.Coleman to BAL 9 for 25 yards (23-J.Alexander).
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Final
Minnesota Vikings27
Chicago Bears24
Back-and-forth · 3.7Over 51Soldier Field
Chicago Bears win probability
Biggest swings
Q3 · 13:03(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI 26. 26-N.Wright for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 9:52(9:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-26-N.Wright has returned to the game.
Q4 · 9:57(9:57) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Nailor [98-M.Sweat]. PENALTY on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 41 - No Play.
Methodology
Final scores, box-score leaders, and the schedule are facts from nflverse. Win probability and the drama index (the sum of the win-probability swings across a game) are nflfastR-modeled — derived estimates, not raw facts; the win-probability line is the home team's, already team-relative. Standings are regular-season records to date, with win percentage counting a tie as half a win. Each game's recap is written from that deterministic data — the model turns the numbers into prose, it never computes them.