NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2025
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 272
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyren Williams◦ provisional | LA | RB | 259 | 50.2% | 45.4% | 41.9% – 49.0% |
| 2 | Blake Corum◦ provisional | LA | RB | 145 | 51.0% | 44.4% | 40.4% – 48.4% |
| 3 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 84 | 54.8% | 44.2% | 39.9% – 48.5% |
| 4 | D'Andre Swift◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 223 | 48.0% | 44.1% | 40.4% – 47.8% |
| 5 | Kareem Hunt◦ provisional | KC | RB | 163 | 47.9% | 43.5% | 39.6% – 47.4% |
| 6 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 309 | 45.6% | 43.4% | 40.0% – 46.8% |
| 7 | Rachaad White◦ provisional | TB | RB | 133 | 48.1% | 43.3% | 39.2% – 47.3% |
| 8 | Javonte Williams◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 252 | 45.6% | 43.2% | 39.6% – 46.7% |
| 9 | Jordan Mason◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 159 | 46.5% | 43.0% | 39.1% – 46.9% |
| 10 | Kyle Monangai◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 171 | 46.2% | 42.9% | 39.1% – 46.8% |
| 11 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 324 | 44.4% | 42.8% | 39.5% – 46.2% |
| 12 | J.K. Dobbins◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 153 | 45.8% | 42.6% | 38.7% – 46.6% |
| 13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 112 | 46.4% | 42.5% | 38.4% – 46.7% |
| 14 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 50 | 50.0% | 42.3% | 37.8% – 46.9% |
| 15 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 114 | 45.6% | 42.3% | 38.2% – 46.4% |
| 16 | Bhayshul Tuten◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 84 | 46.4% | 42.2% | 37.9% – 46.5% |
| 17 | Jaylen Wright◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | 47.1% | 42.2% | 37.8% – 46.6% |
| 18 | Tank Bigsby◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 63 | 47.6% | 42.1% | 37.8% – 46.6% |
| 19 | Josh Jacobs◦ provisional | GB | RB | 234 | 43.6% | 42.1% | 38.6% – 45.8% |
| 20 | Jaleel McLaughlin◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 37 | 51.3% | 42.1% | 37.5% – 46.8% |
| 21 | Emanuel Wilson◦ provisional | GB | RB | 125 | 44.0% | 41.9% | 37.8% – 46.0% |
| 22 | David Montgomery◦ provisional | DET | RB | 159 | 43.4% | 41.8% | 37.9% – 45.7% |
| 23 | Hunter Luepke◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 16 | 56.3% | 41.7% | 37.0% – 46.6% |
| 24 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 211 | 42.6% | 41.7% | 38.0% – 45.4% |
| 25 | Aaron Jones◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 132 | 43.2% | 41.6% | 37.6% – 45.7% |
| 26 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 176 | 42.6% | 41.6% | 37.8% – 45.4% |
| 27 | Brian Robinson◦ provisional | SF | RB | 92 | 43.5% | 41.5% | 37.3% – 45.8% |
| 28 | Rico Dowdle◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 237 | 42.2% | 41.5% | 37.9% – 45.1% |
| 29 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 307 | 41.7% | 41.3% | 38.0% – 44.7% |
| 30 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 92 | 42.4% | 41.3% | 37.0% – 45.5% |
| 31 | Audric Estimé◦ provisional | NO | RB | 46 | 43.5% | 41.3% | 36.8% – 45.8% |
| 32 | British Brooks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 17 | 47.1% | 41.3% | 36.5% – 46.0% |
| 33 | Omarion Hampton◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 124 | 41.9% | 41.2% | 37.2% – 45.3% |
| 34 | TreVeyon Henderson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 180 | 41.7% | 41.2% | 37.4% – 45.0% |
| 35 | Najee Harris◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 15 | 46.7% | 41.2% | 36.4% – 46.0% |
| 36 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 20 | 45.0% | 41.2% | 36.5% – 45.9% |
| 37 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 25 | 44.0% | 41.1% | 36.5% – 45.9% |
| 38 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 288 | 41.3% | 41.1% | 37.7% – 44.5% |
| 39 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 45 | 42.2% | 41.1% | 36.6% – 45.6% |
| 40 | Zach Charbonnet◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 184 | 41.3% | 41.1% | 37.3% – 44.9% |
| 41 | DJ Giddens◦ provisional | IND | RB | 26 | 42.3% | 41.0% | 36.4% – 45.7% |
| 42 | Ray Davis◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 58 | 41.4% | 41.0% | 36.6% – 45.5% |
| 43 | Cam Skattebo◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 102 | 41.2% | 41.0% | 36.8% – 45.2% |
| 44 | Raheim Sanders◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 27 | 40.7% | 40.9% | 36.2% – 45.6% |
| 45 | Zavier Scott◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 32 | 40.6% | 40.9% | 36.3% – 45.5% |
| 46 | Chuba Hubbard◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 135 | 40.7% | 40.8% | 36.9% – 44.9% |
| 47 | Breece Hall◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 243 | 40.7% | 40.8% | 37.3% – 44.4% |
| 48 | Kendre Miller◦ provisional | NO | RB | 47 | 40.4% | 40.8% | 36.3% – 45.4% |
| 49 | Malik Davis◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 52 | 40.4% | 40.8% | 36.4% – 45.3% |
| 50 | Ollie Gordon II◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 70 | 40.0% | 40.7% | 36.4% – 45.1% |
| 51 | Jaret Patterson◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 41 | 39.0% | 40.6% | 36.1% – 45.2% |
| 52 | Chris Brooks◦ provisional | GB | RB | 27 | 37.0% | 40.5% | 35.9% – 45.2% |
| 53 | Tyler Allgeier◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 143 | 39.9% | 40.5% | 36.6% – 44.5% |
| 54 | Trevor Etienne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 20 | 35.0% | 40.5% | 35.8% – 45.2% |
| 55 | Chase Brown◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 233 | 39.9% | 40.4% | 36.9% – 44.0% |
| 56 | Jahmyr Gibbs◦ provisional | DET | RB | 243 | 39.9% | 40.4% | 36.9% – 44.0% |
| 57 | Terrell Jennings◦ provisional | NE | RB | 23 | 34.8% | 40.4% | 35.8% – 45.1% |
| 58 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 16 | 31.3% | 40.4% | 35.6% – 45.1% |
| 59 | Braelon Allen◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 19 | 31.6% | 40.3% | 35.6% – 45.0% |
| 60 | Jerome Ford◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 24 | 33.3% | 40.3% | 35.6% – 45.0% |
| 61 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | LV | RB | 22 | 31.8% | 40.2% | 35.5% – 45.0% |
| 62 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 119 | 38.7% | 40.2% | 36.2% – 44.3% |
| 63 | James Conner◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 32 | 34.4% | 40.2% | 35.6% – 44.9% |
| 64 | Tony Pollard◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 242 | 39.3% | 40.1% | 36.6% – 43.7% |
| 65 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 18 | 27.8% | 40.1% | 35.4% – 44.8% |
| 66 | Isaiah Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 43 | 34.9% | 40.1% | 35.6% – 44.6% |
| 67 | Bam Knight◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 83 | 37.4% | 40.1% | 35.8% – 44.4% |
| 68 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | 311 | 39.2% | 40.0% | 36.7% – 43.4% |
| 69 | Sean Tucker◦ provisional | TB | RB | 86 | 37.2% | 40.0% | 35.8% – 44.3% |
| 70 | Tahj Brooks◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 16 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% – 44.8% |
| 71 | Keaton Mitchell◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 59 | 35.6% | 39.9% | 35.5% – 44.4% |
| 72 | Devin Neal◦ provisional | NO | RB | 57 | 35.1% | 39.9% | 35.5% – 44.4% |
| 73 | Rhamondre Stevenson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 131 | 37.4% | 39.8% | 35.8% – 43.8% |
| 74 | LeQuint Allen Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 23 | 26.1% | 39.7% | 35.1% – 44.5% |
| 75 | De'Von Achane◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 238 | 38.2% | 39.6% | 36.1% – 43.2% |
| 76 | Emari Demercado◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 44 | 31.8% | 39.6% | 35.1% – 44.2% |
| 77 | Kenneth Walker III◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 221 | 38.0% | 39.6% | 36.0% – 43.2% |
| 78 | Tyjae Spears◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 72 | 34.7% | 39.6% | 35.3% – 44.0% |
| 79 | Trey Benson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 29 | 27.6% | 39.6% | 35.0% – 44.3% |
| 80 | George Holani◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 22 | 22.7% | 39.5% | 34.9% – 44.3% |
| 81 | Ty Chandler◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 17 | 17.6% | 39.5% | 34.8% – 44.3% |
| 82 | Hassan Haskins◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 17 | 17.6% | 39.5% | 34.8% – 44.3% |
| 83 | Jaydon Blue◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 38 | 28.9% | 39.4% | 34.9% – 44.0% |
| 84 | Kaleb Johnson◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 28 | 25.0% | 39.4% | 34.8% – 44.1% |
| 85 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 176 | 36.9% | 39.3% | 35.6% – 43.1% |
| 86 | Brashard Smith◦ provisional | KC | RB | 44 | 29.5% | 39.3% | 34.8% – 43.9% |
| 87 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 281 | 37.7% | 39.3% | 35.9% – 42.7% |
| 88 | Evan Hull◦ provisional | NO | RB | 19 | 15.8% | 39.3% | 34.6% – 44.0% |
| 89 | RJ Harvey◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 147 | 36.0% | 39.2% | 35.3% – 43.1% |
| 90 | Kimani Vidal◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 155 | 36.1% | 39.2% | 35.3% – 43.1% |
| 91 | Isiah Pacheco◦ provisional | KC | RB | 118 | 34.8% | 39.0% | 35.0% – 43.1% |
| 92 | Woody Marks◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 196 | 36.2% | 38.9% | 35.3% – 42.7% |
| 93 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 122 | 34.4% | 38.9% | 34.9% – 43.0% |
| 94 | Jawhar Jordan◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 43 | 25.6% | 38.8% | 34.3% – 43.4% |
| 95 | Bucky Irving◦ provisional | TB | RB | 173 | 34.7% | 38.5% | 34.7% – 42.3% |
| 96 | Travis Etienne◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 260 | 35.8% | 38.4% | 34.9% – 41.9% |
| 97 | Dylan Sampson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 65 | 26.2% | 38.0% | 33.7% – 42.4% |
| 98 | Alvin Kamara◦ provisional | NO | RB | 131 | 32.1% | 38.0% | 34.1% – 42.0% |
| 99 | Quinshon Judkins◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 231 | 33.3% | 37.4% | 33.9% – 41.0% |
| 100 | Ashton Jeanty◦ provisional | LV | RB | 267 | 31.8% | 36.4% | 33.0% – 39.8% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).