NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per target · 2025
Mean EPA per target, shrunk within position.
- Beats raw by
- 24.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.38 → 0.29
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.13
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 87 TE · 160 WR
- targets to trust the number
shrunkrawthe shrink90% CI
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per target · 2025 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | targets | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tucker Kraft◦ provisional | GB | TE | 44 | +0.89 | +0.48 | +0.26 – +0.69 |
| 2 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 166 | +0.70 | +0.47 | +0.32 – +0.62 |
| 3 | Dalton Kincaid◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 50 | +0.79 | +0.46 | +0.25 – +0.66 |
| 4 | George Kittle◦ provisional | SF | TE | 69 | +0.67 | +0.45 | +0.25 – +0.64 |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta◦ provisional | DET | TE | 49 | +0.74 | +0.44 | +0.23 – +0.65 |
| 6 | Darren Waller◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 35 | +0.81 | +0.42 | +0.20 – +0.64 |
| 7 | George Pickens◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 138 | +0.64 | +0.42 | +0.26 – +0.58 |
| 8 | Colston Loveland◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 83 | +0.57 | +0.42 | +0.23 – +0.60 |
| 9 | Stefon Diggs◦ provisional | NE | WR | 102 | +0.69 | +0.41 | +0.24 – +0.58 |
| 10 | Daniel Bellinger◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 26 | +0.87 | +0.40 | +0.18 – +0.63 |
| 11 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 163 | +0.56 | +0.39 | +0.24 – +0.55 |
| 12 | Alec Pierce◦ provisional | IND | WR | 84 | +0.66 | +0.38 | +0.20 – +0.55 |
| 13 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 170 | +0.43 | +0.37 | +0.22 – +0.52 |
| 14 | Brenton Strange◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 60 | +0.52 | +0.37 | +0.17 – +0.57 |
| 15 | Jackson Hawes◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 19 | +0.78 | +0.36 | +0.12 – +0.59 |
| 16 | Kayshon Boutte◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | +0.80 | +0.36 | +0.17 – +0.55 |
| 17 | Jameson Williams◦ provisional | DET | WR | 102 | +0.55 | +0.35 | +0.19 – +0.52 |
| 18 | Austin Hooper◦ provisional | NE | TE | 26 | +0.65 | +0.35 | +0.12 – +0.58 |
| 19 | Dallas Goedert◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 82 | +0.44 | +0.35 | +0.16 – +0.54 |
| 20 | Hunter Henry | NE | TE | 87 | +0.43 | +0.35 | +0.16 – +0.53 |
| 21 | Greg Dulcich◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 34 | +0.52 | +0.34 | +0.11 – +0.56 |
| 22 | DeVonta Smith◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 114 | +0.48 | +0.33 | +0.17 – +0.50 |
| 23 | AJ Barner◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 68 | +0.41 | +0.33 | +0.13 – +0.52 |
| 24 | Pat Freiermuth◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 54 | +0.43 | +0.33 | +0.12 – +0.53 |
| 25 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 109 | +0.37 | +0.32 | +0.15 – +0.50 |
| 26 | Christian Watson◦ provisional | GB | WR | 55 | +0.59 | +0.32 | +0.13 – +0.51 |
| 27 | Tyquan Thornton◦ provisional | KC | WR | 37 | +0.71 | +0.32 | +0.12 – +0.51 |
| 28 | Xavier Smith◦ provisional | LA | WR | 24 | +0.91 | +0.32 | +0.12 – +0.52 |
| 29 | DeMario Douglas◦ provisional | NE | WR | 46 | +0.61 | +0.31 | +0.12 – +0.51 |
| 30 | Josh Oliver◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 20 | +0.53 | +0.31 | +0.08 – +0.55 |
| 31 | Terry McLaurin◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 60 | +0.53 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.50 |
| 32 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | 102 | +0.35 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.49 |
| 33 | Dalton Schultz | HOU | TE | 107 | +0.34 | +0.31 | +0.13 – +0.48 |
| 34 | Adam Trautman◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 23 | +0.47 | +0.31 | +0.08 – +0.54 |
| 35 | Luther Burden III◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 60 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.49 |
| 36 | Ryan Flournoy◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 56 | +0.51 | +0.30 | +0.12 – +0.49 |
| 37 | John Bates◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 16 | +0.49 | +0.30 | +0.06 – +0.54 |
| 38 | Tyreek Hill◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 29 | +0.68 | +0.30 | +0.10 – +0.50 |
| 39 | Zay Flowers◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 119 | +0.39 | +0.30 | +0.13 – +0.46 |
| 40 | Ricky Pearsall◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | +0.50 | +0.30 | +0.11 – +0.49 |
| 41 | Hunter Long◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 17 | +0.46 | +0.30 | +0.06 – +0.54 |
| 42 | Dawson Knox◦ provisional | BUF | TE | 50 | +0.35 | +0.30 | +0.09 – +0.50 |
| 43 | Isaac TeSlaa◦ provisional | DET | WR | 27 | +0.66 | +0.29 | +0.09 – +0.49 |
| 44 | Romeo Doubs◦ provisional | GB | WR | 86 | +0.40 | +0.29 | +0.12 – +0.46 |
| 45 | Marvin Harrison Jr.◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 74 | +0.42 | +0.29 | +0.11 – +0.47 |
| 46 | Courtland Sutton◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 125 | +0.36 | +0.29 | +0.13 – +0.45 |
| 47 | Darnell Washington◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 44 | +0.33 | +0.29 | +0.08 – +0.50 |
| 48 | Jalen Coker◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 45 | +0.49 | +0.29 | +0.09 – +0.48 |
| 49 | Mack Hollins◦ provisional | NE | WR | 65 | +0.42 | +0.28 | +0.10 – +0.47 |
| 50 | Ian Thomas◦ provisional | LV | TE | 13 | +0.39 | +0.28 | +0.04 – +0.53 |
| 51 | Luke Musgrave◦ provisional | GB | TE | 31 | +0.33 | +0.28 | +0.06 – +0.51 |
| 52 | Jalen McMillan◦ provisional | TB | WR | 15 | +0.83 | +0.28 | +0.07 – +0.49 |
| 53 | Tee Higgins◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 99 | +0.36 | +0.28 | +0.11 – +0.45 |
| 54 | Jake Tonges◦ provisional | SF | TE | 46 | +0.31 | +0.28 | +0.07 – +0.49 |
| 55 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 172 | +0.32 | +0.28 | +0.13 – +0.43 |
| 56 | Charlie Kolar◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 15 | +0.34 | +0.28 | +0.04 – +0.52 |
| 57 | Jaylen Waddle◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 100 | +0.34 | +0.27 | +0.10 – +0.44 |
| 58 | Gunner Olszewski◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 13 | +0.82 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.48 |
| 59 | Kalif Raymond◦ provisional | DET | WR | 30 | +0.51 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 60 | Terrance Ferguson◦ provisional | LA | TE | 25 | +0.30 | +0.27 | +0.04 – +0.50 |
| 61 | Nico Collins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 121 | +0.32 | +0.27 | +0.11 – +0.43 |
| 62 | KaVontae Turpin◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 38 | +0.44 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.46 |
| 63 | Brandin Cooks◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 36 | +0.45 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 64 | Kendrick Bourne◦ provisional | SF | WR | 53 | +0.39 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.46 |
| 65 | DK Metcalf◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 99 | +0.33 | +0.27 | +0.10 – +0.44 |
| 66 | Cole Kmet◦ provisional | CHI | TE | 49 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.48 |
| 67 | Chris Moore◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 23 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 68 | Tyrell Shavers◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 23 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.47 |
| 69 | Devaughn Vele◦ provisional | NO | WR | 40 | +0.42 | +0.27 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 70 | Brock Bowers | LV | TE | 87 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.08 – +0.45 |
| 71 | Tyler Johnson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | +0.59 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 72 | Jayden Reed◦ provisional | GB | WR | 22 | +0.53 | +0.27 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 73 | Gabe Davis◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 18 | +0.57 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 74 | Tyler Higbee◦ provisional | LA | TE | 36 | +0.26 | +0.26 | +0.04 – +0.48 |
| 75 | Luke Farrell◦ provisional | SF | TE | 14 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.02 – +0.51 |
| 76 | John FitzPatrick◦ provisional | GB | TE | 15 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.02 – +0.50 |
| 77 | Ben Sinnott◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 13 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.02 – +0.51 |
| 78 | Luke McCaffrey◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 16 | +0.59 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.47 |
| 79 | Matthew Golden◦ provisional | GB | WR | 44 | +0.38 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.45 |
| 80 | Jaylin Noel◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 35 | +0.41 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.46 |
| 81 | Tez Johnson◦ provisional | TB | WR | 44 | +0.37 | +0.26 | +0.07 – +0.45 |
| 82 | Parker Washington◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 97 | +0.31 | +0.26 | +0.09 – +0.43 |
| 83 | Tory Horton◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 22 | +0.47 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.46 |
| 84 | Kyle Williams◦ provisional | NE | WR | 21 | +0.47 | +0.26 | +0.05 – +0.46 |
| 85 | Tre Harris◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 43 | +0.36 | +0.26 | +0.06 – +0.45 |
| 86 | Johnny Mundt◦ provisional | JAX | TE | 19 | +0.21 | +0.26 | +0.02 – +0.49 |
| 87 | Keenan Allen◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 122 | +0.29 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.42 |
| 88 | Oronde Gadsden II◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 69 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.06 – +0.45 |
| 89 | Tommy Tremble◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 37 | +0.22 | +0.25 | +0.03 – +0.47 |
| 90 | Marquise Brown◦ provisional | KC | WR | 74 | +0.30 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.43 |
| 91 | Will Dissly◦ provisional | LAC | TE | 16 | +0.17 | +0.25 | +0.01 – +0.49 |
| 92 | A.J. Brown◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 121 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.09 – +0.41 |
| 93 | Calvin Ridley◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 36 | +0.34 | +0.25 | +0.05 – +0.45 |
| 94 | Colby Parkinson◦ provisional | LA | TE | 56 | +0.22 | +0.25 | +0.05 – +0.45 |
| 95 | Quentin Johnston◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 84 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.07 – +0.42 |
| 96 | Dontayvion Wicks◦ provisional | GB | WR | 46 | +0.31 | +0.25 | +0.06 – +0.44 |
| 97 | Brycen Tremayne◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 18 | +0.40 | +0.25 | +0.04 – +0.45 |
| 98 | Cade Stover◦ provisional | HOU | TE | 16 | +0.14 | +0.25 | +0.01 – +0.49 |
| 99 | Pat Bryant◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 49 | +0.29 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.43 |
| 100 | Darius Slayton◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 65 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.06 – +0.43 |
| 101 | T.J. Hockenson◦ provisional | MIN | TE | 66 | +0.21 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.44 |
| 102 | Luke Schoonmaker◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 23 | +0.16 | +0.24 | +0.01 – +0.47 |
| 103 | Chris Godwin Jr.◦ provisional | TB | WR | 52 | +0.28 | +0.24 | +0.05 – +0.43 |
| 104 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 25 | +0.32 | +0.24 | +0.04 – +0.44 |
| 105 | Grant Calcaterra◦ provisional | PHI | TE | 13 | +0.07 | +0.24 | -0.00 – +0.48 |
| 106 | Drew Sample◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 20 | +0.13 | +0.24 | +0.01 – +0.48 |
| 107 | Jeremy Ruckert◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 29 | +0.16 | +0.24 | +0.01 – +0.46 |
| 108 | Zay Jones◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 18 | +0.31 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 109 | Davis Allen◦ provisional | LA | TE | 33 | +0.16 | +0.24 | +0.02 – +0.46 |
| 110 | CeeDee Lamb◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 117 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.07 – +0.40 |
| 111 | Isaiah Hodgins◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 19 | +0.29 | +0.24 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 112 | Mitchell Evans◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 25 | +0.13 | +0.23 | +0.00 – +0.46 |
| 113 | Jayden Higgins◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 69 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.05 – +0.41 |
| 114 | Davante Adams◦ provisional | LA | WR | 114 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.07 – +0.40 |
| 115 | Casey Washington◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 14 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.44 |
| 116 | Tre Tucker◦ provisional | LV | WR | 92 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.40 |
| 117 | DeAndre Hopkins◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.43 |
| 118 | Isaiah Likely◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 36 | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.01 – +0.45 |
| 119 | Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 119 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.40 |
| 120 | Tim Patrick◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 24 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.43 |
| 121 | Jimmy Horn Jr.◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 15 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.44 |
| 122 | Rome Odunze◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 91 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.40 |
| 123 | Chris Olave◦ provisional | NO | WR | 156 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.38 |
| 124 | Xavier Hutchinson◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 57 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 125 | Ja'Tavion Sanders◦ provisional | CAR | TE | 34 | +0.13 | +0.23 | +0.01 – +0.45 |
| 126 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | 185 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.08 – +0.37 |
| 127 | Demarcus Robinson◦ provisional | SF | WR | 36 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.03 – +0.42 |
| 128 | Tutu Atwell◦ provisional | LA | WR | 15 | +0.18 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 129 | Jalen Nailor◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 54 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 130 | Drake London◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 113 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.06 – +0.39 |
| 131 | Roman Wilson◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 21 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 132 | Julian Hill◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 21 | +0.06 | +0.22 | -0.01 – +0.46 |
| 133 | Brevyn Spann-Ford◦ provisional | DAL | TE | 13 | -0.05 | +0.22 | -0.02 – +0.47 |
| 134 | James Proche◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 12 | +0.14 | +0.22 | +0.01 – +0.43 |
| 135 | Jamari Thrash◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | +0.16 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.43 |
| 136 | Andrei Iosivas◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 58 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.41 |
| 137 | Jake Ferguson | DAL | TE | 103 | +0.19 | +0.22 | +0.05 – +0.40 |
| 138 | Xavier Worthy◦ provisional | KC | WR | 73 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 139 | Keon Coleman◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 62 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 140 | Josh Palmer◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 37 | +0.18 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.42 |
| 141 | Rashee Rice◦ provisional | KC | WR | 79 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.04 – +0.40 |
| 142 | Taysom Hill◦ provisional | NO | TE | 16 | -0.03 | +0.22 | -0.02 – +0.46 |
| 143 | Tetairoa McMillan◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 122 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +0.06 – +0.38 |
| 144 | Xavier Weaver◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 13 | +0.09 | +0.22 | +0.01 – +0.43 |
| 145 | Michael Wilson◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 127 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.06 – +0.38 |
| 146 | Zach Ertz◦ provisional | WAS | TE | 73 | +0.16 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.41 |
| 147 | Cedric Tillman◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 39 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 148 | Michael Pittman◦ provisional | IND | WR | 114 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.05 – +0.38 |
| 149 | Chig Okonkwo◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 79 | +0.16 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.40 |
| 150 | Van Jefferson◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 52 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.03 – +0.40 |
| 151 | Brian Thomas Jr.◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 91 | +0.19 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.39 |
| 152 | Mason Taylor◦ provisional | NYJ | TE | 66 | +0.15 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 153 | Mitchell Tinsley◦ provisional | CIN | WR | 24 | +0.11 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.42 |
| 154 | Adam Thielen◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 36 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 155 | Jalen Tolbert◦ provisional | DAL | WR | 35 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 156 | Tanner Hudson◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 24 | +0.02 | +0.21 | -0.02 – +0.44 |
| 157 | Jordan Whittington◦ provisional | LA | WR | 25 | +0.10 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.41 |
| 158 | Greg Dortch◦ provisional | ARI | WR | 33 | +0.13 | +0.21 | +0.02 – +0.41 |
| 159 | Jordan Addison◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 79 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.39 |
| 160 | Mike Gesicki◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 43 | +0.10 | +0.21 | -0.00 – +0.42 |
| 161 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 20 | +0.06 | +0.21 | +0.01 – +0.41 |
| 162 | Deebo Samuel Sr.◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 100 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.04 – +0.38 |
| 163 | Mo Alie-Cox◦ provisional | IND | TE | 20 | -0.04 | +0.21 | -0.03 – +0.44 |
| 164 | DJ Moore◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 85 | +0.16 | +0.21 | +0.03 – +0.38 |
| 165 | Scott Miller◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 14 | -0.08 | +0.20 | -0.00 – +0.41 |
| 166 | Kevin Austin Jr.◦ provisional | NO | WR | 23 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 – +0.40 |
| 167 | Malik Nabers◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 35 | +0.07 | +0.20 | +0.00 – +0.40 |
| 168 | Theo Johnson◦ provisional | NYG | TE | 74 | +0.12 | +0.20 | +0.01 – +0.39 |
| 169 | Elijah Higgins◦ provisional | ARI | TE | 37 | +0.04 | +0.20 | -0.02 – +0.42 |
| 170 | Brock Wright◦ provisional | DET | TE | 22 | -0.09 | +0.19 | -0.04 – +0.43 |
| 171 | Isaiah Williams◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 36 | +0.03 | +0.19 | -0.00 – +0.39 |
| 172 | Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 114 | +0.14 | +0.19 | +0.02 – +0.36 |
| 173 | Malachi Corley◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 14 | -0.23 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.40 |
| 174 | Cooper Kupp◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 71 | +0.11 | +0.19 | +0.01 – +0.37 |
| 175 | JuJu Smith-Schuster◦ provisional | KC | WR | 45 | +0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 – +0.38 |
| 176 | Marvin Mims Jr.◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 51 | +0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 – +0.38 |
| 177 | Gunnar Helm◦ provisional | TEN | TE | 55 | +0.07 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 178 | Mike Evans◦ provisional | TB | WR | 62 | +0.08 | +0.19 | +0.01 – +0.37 |
| 179 | Josh Reynolds◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 22 | -0.11 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 180 | Hunter Renfrow◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 26 | -0.08 | +0.19 | -0.01 – +0.39 |
| 181 | Wan'Dale Robinson◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 141 | +0.14 | +0.19 | +0.03 – +0.34 |
| 182 | Elijah Moore◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 17 | -0.23 | +0.19 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 183 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 12 | -0.41 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 184 | Jack Bech◦ provisional | LV | WR | 29 | -0.07 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.38 |
| 185 | Josh Downs◦ provisional | IND | WR | 88 | +0.10 | +0.18 | +0.01 – +0.36 |
| 186 | Gage Larvadain◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 15 | -0.32 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.39 |
| 187 | David Sills◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 36 | -0.05 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 188 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 29 | -0.10 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.38 |
| 189 | Rashod Bateman◦ provisional | BAL | WR | 39 | -0.04 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 190 | Isaiah Bond◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 44 | -0.02 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 191 | Dyami Brown◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 37 | -0.06 | +0.18 | -0.02 – +0.37 |
| 192 | Troy Franklin◦ provisional | DEN | WR | 107 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.01 – +0.34 |
| 193 | Darnell Mooney◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 72 | +0.05 | +0.17 | -0.01 – +0.35 |
| 194 | Jakobi Meyers◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 110 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.01 – +0.34 |
| 195 | Arian Smith◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 16 | -0.40 | +0.17 | -0.03 – +0.38 |
| 196 | Dylan Drummond◦ provisional | ATL | WR | 12 | -0.59 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.38 |
| 197 | Khalil Shakir◦ provisional | BUF | WR | 97 | +0.08 | +0.17 | +0.00 – +0.34 |
| 198 | Travis Hunter◦ provisional | JAX | WR | 45 | -0.05 | +0.17 | -0.02 – +0.36 |
| 199 | Jonnu Smith◦ provisional | PIT | TE | 55 | +0.01 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.37 |
| 200 | John Metchie III◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 48 | -0.05 | +0.17 | -0.02 – +0.35 |
| 201 | Mason Tipton◦ provisional | NO | WR | 17 | -0.44 | +0.17 | -0.04 – +0.37 |
| 202 | Ladd McConkey◦ provisional | LAC | WR | 106 | +0.07 | +0.17 | -0.00 – +0.33 |
| 203 | Chimere Dike◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 74 | +0.02 | +0.16 | -0.02 – +0.34 |
| 204 | Tanner Conner◦ provisional | MIA | TE | 15 | -0.43 | +0.16 | -0.08 – +0.40 |
| 205 | Evan Engram◦ provisional | DEN | TE | 77 | +0.05 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.35 |
| 206 | Jaylin Lane◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 32 | -0.18 | +0.16 | -0.04 – +0.36 |
| 207 | Jalin Hyatt◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 14 | -0.65 | +0.16 | -0.05 – +0.37 |
| 208 | Sterling Shepard◦ provisional | TB | WR | 54 | -0.05 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.35 |
| 209 | Garrett Wilson◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 60 | -0.03 | +0.16 | -0.03 – +0.34 |
| 210 | Mark Andrews◦ provisional | BAL | TE | 70 | +0.02 | +0.16 | -0.04 – +0.35 |
| 211 | Ray-Ray McCloud◦ provisional | NYG | WR | 15 | -0.63 | +0.16 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 212 | Cade Otton◦ provisional | TB | TE | 82 | +0.04 | +0.15 | -0.03 – +0.34 |
| 213 | Treylon Burks◦ provisional | WAS | WR | 22 | -0.40 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 214 | Konata Mumpfield◦ provisional | LA | WR | 23 | -0.38 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.35 |
| 215 | Emeka Egbuka◦ provisional | TB | WR | 128 | +0.06 | +0.15 | -0.01 – +0.31 |
| 216 | Allen Lazard◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 18 | -0.54 | +0.15 | -0.05 – +0.36 |
| 217 | Calvin Austin III◦ provisional | PIT | WR | 55 | -0.08 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.34 |
| 218 | Olamide Zaccheaus◦ provisional | CHI | WR | 66 | -0.06 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.33 |
| 219 | Xavier Legette◦ provisional | CAR | WR | 64 | -0.06 | +0.15 | -0.04 – +0.33 |
| 220 | David Njoku◦ provisional | CLE | TE | 48 | -0.08 | +0.14 | -0.07 – +0.35 |
| 221 | Jauan Jennings◦ provisional | SF | WR | 93 | -0.02 | +0.14 | -0.04 – +0.31 |
| 222 | Tyler Lockett◦ provisional | LV | WR | 56 | -0.15 | +0.13 | -0.06 – +0.32 |
| 223 | Noah Gray◦ provisional | KC | TE | 38 | -0.18 | +0.13 | -0.09 – +0.35 |
| 224 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.◦ provisional | LV | WR | 30 | -0.40 | +0.13 | -0.07 – +0.33 |
| 225 | Rashid Shaheed◦ provisional | SEA | WR | 92 | -0.05 | +0.13 | -0.04 – +0.30 |
| 226 | Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | TE | 108 | +0.01 | +0.13 | -0.05 – +0.30 |
| 227 | Malik Washington◦ provisional | MIA | WR | 65 | -0.15 | +0.12 | -0.06 – +0.30 |
| 228 | Jahan Dotson◦ provisional | PHI | WR | 36 | -0.42 | +0.11 | -0.09 – +0.31 |
| 229 | Elic Ayomanor◦ provisional | TEN | WR | 89 | -0.11 | +0.11 | -0.06 – +0.28 |
| 230 | Michael Mayer◦ provisional | LV | TE | 50 | -0.20 | +0.10 | -0.11 – +0.30 |
| 231 | Noah Fant◦ provisional | CIN | TE | 41 | -0.29 | +0.09 | -0.13 – +0.30 |
| 232 | Adonai Mitchell◦ provisional | NYJ | WR | 74 | -0.22 | +0.09 | -0.09 – +0.27 |
| 233 | Justin Jefferson◦ provisional | MIN | WR | 142 | -0.10 | +0.08 | -0.08 – +0.23 |
| 234 | Christian Kirk◦ provisional | HOU | WR | 53 | -0.40 | +0.07 | -0.11 – +0.26 |
| 235 | Elijah Arroyo◦ provisional | SEA | TE | 26 | -0.62 | +0.06 | -0.17 – +0.29 |
| 236 | Jerry Jeudy◦ provisional | CLE | WR | 106 | -0.30 | +0.02 | -0.15 – +0.18 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).