NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
EPA per rush · 2024
Mean EPA per carry. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 21.1%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 0.16 → 0.13
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.17
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 145
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
EPA per rush · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | BAL | RB | 325 | +0.12 | +0.07 | -0.00 – +0.14 |
| 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 250 | +0.14 | +0.07 | -0.01 – +0.15 |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 348 | +0.11 | +0.06 | -0.01 – +0.13 |
| 4 | Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 207 | +0.10 | +0.04 | -0.05 – +0.12 |
| 5 | Emari Demercado◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 24 | +0.52 | +0.03 | -0.09 – +0.15 |
| 6 | Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 305 | +0.06 | +0.02 | -0.05 – +0.10 |
| 7 | Sean Tucker◦ provisional | TB | RB | 50 | +0.20 | +0.01 | -0.10 – +0.12 |
| 8 | James Cook | BUF | RB | 207 | +0.05 | +0.01 | -0.07 – +0.09 |
| 9 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB | 251 | +0.04 | +0.01 | -0.07 – +0.09 |
| 10 | Jeremy McNichols◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 56 | +0.16 | +0.01 | -0.10 – +0.12 |
| 11 | Emanuel Wilson◦ provisional | GB | RB | 103 | +0.09 | +0.01 | -0.09 – +0.10 |
| 12 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 35 | +0.23 | +0.00 | -0.12 – +0.12 |
| 13 | Dameon Pierce◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 40 | +0.18 | -0.00 | -0.12 – +0.11 |
| 14 | Tyler Allgeier◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 138 | +0.04 | -0.01 | -0.10 – +0.08 |
| 15 | J.K. Dobbins | LAC | RB | 195 | +0.02 | -0.01 | -0.09 – +0.07 |
| 16 | Jerome Ford◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 104 | +0.05 | -0.01 | -0.11 – +0.09 |
| 17 | Austin Ekeler◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 77 | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.12 – +0.09 |
| 18 | Isaac Guerendo◦ provisional | SF | RB | 84 | +0.06 | -0.01 | -0.12 – +0.09 |
| 19 | Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 200 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.10 – +0.07 |
| 20 | Chris Brooks◦ provisional | GB | RB | 36 | +0.13 | -0.02 | -0.13 – +0.10 |
| 21 | James Conner | ARI | RB | 239 | +0.01 | -0.02 | -0.10 – +0.06 |
| 22 | Isaiah Davis◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 30 | +0.15 | -0.02 | -0.14 – +0.10 |
| 23 | D'Ernest Johnson◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 32 | +0.10 | -0.03 | -0.14 – +0.09 |
| 24 | Tank Bigsby | JAX | RB | 168 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.12 – +0.06 |
| 25 | Tyler Goodson◦ provisional | IND | RB | 32 | +0.08 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.09 |
| 26 | Ronnie Rivers◦ provisional | LA | RB | 22 | +0.13 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.09 |
| 27 | Khalil Herbert◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 36 | +0.06 | -0.03 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 28 | Chase Brown | CIN | RB | 230 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.11 – +0.05 |
| 29 | Jaleel McLaughlin◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 113 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.13 – +0.06 |
| 30 | Patrick Taylor◦ provisional | SF | RB | 40 | +0.03 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 31 | Kenny McIntosh◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 31 | +0.05 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 32 | Justice Hill◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 47 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 33 | Ty Johnson◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 41 | +0.02 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.08 |
| 34 | Sincere McCormick◦ provisional | LV | RB | 39 | +0.01 | -0.04 | -0.15 – +0.07 |
| 35 | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | 153 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.13 – +0.05 |
| 36 | Michael Carter◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 35 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.16 – +0.07 |
| 37 | Rico Dowdle | DAL | RB | 235 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.13 – +0.03 |
| 38 | David Montgomery | DET | RB | 186 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.14 – +0.04 |
| 39 | Samaje Perine◦ provisional | KC | RB | 20 | -0.03 | -0.05 | -0.17 – +0.07 |
| 40 | Ray Davis◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 113 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.15 – +0.04 |
| 41 | Raheem Blackshear◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 15 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.18 – +0.07 |
| 42 | Aaron Jones | MIN | RB | 255 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.13 – +0.02 |
| 43 | JaMycal Hasty◦ provisional | NE | RB | 20 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.17 – +0.07 |
| 44 | Pierre Strong◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 26 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.17 – +0.06 |
| 45 | Christian McCaffrey◦ provisional | SF | RB | 50 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.17 – +0.06 |
| 46 | De'Von Achane | MIA | RB | 203 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.14 – +0.03 |
| 47 | Tyjae Spears◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 84 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.16 – +0.05 |
| 48 | Joe Mixon | HOU | RB | 247 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.14 – +0.02 |
| 49 | Brian Robinson | WAS | RB | 187 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.15 – +0.03 |
| 50 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | 263 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.14 – +0.02 |
| 51 | Roschon Johnson◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 55 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.17 – +0.05 |
| 52 | Trey Benson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 63 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.17 – +0.05 |
| 53 | Josh Jacobs | GB | RB | 303 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.14 – +0.01 |
| 54 | Hassan Haskins◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 34 | -0.11 | -0.06 | -0.18 – +0.05 |
| 55 | Braelon Allen◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 92 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.17 – +0.04 |
| 56 | Jordan Mims◦ provisional | NO | RB | 20 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.19 – +0.05 |
| 57 | Julius Chestnut◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 22 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.19 – +0.05 |
| 58 | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | 153 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.16 – +0.02 |
| 59 | Kyren Williams | LA | RB | 316 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.14 – +0.00 |
| 60 | Zach Charbonnet◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 135 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.16 – +0.02 |
| 61 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | 305 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.14 – +0.00 |
| 62 | Audric Estimé◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 76 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.17 – +0.04 |
| 63 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 228 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.15 – +0.01 |
| 64 | Antonio Gibson◦ provisional | NE | RB | 120 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.17 – +0.03 |
| 65 | Kendre Miller◦ provisional | NO | RB | 39 | -0.14 | -0.07 | -0.19 – +0.04 |
| 66 | Craig Reynolds◦ provisional | DET | RB | 31 | -0.16 | -0.07 | -0.19 – +0.04 |
| 67 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | LV | RB | 66 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.18 – +0.03 |
| 68 | Devin Singletary◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 113 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.17 – +0.02 |
| 69 | Deuce Vaughn◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 17 | -0.24 | -0.07 | -0.20 – +0.05 |
| 70 | Jeff Wilson◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 16 | -0.29 | -0.08 | -0.20 – +0.05 |
| 71 | Breece Hall | NYJ | RB | 212 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.16 – +0.00 |
| 72 | Rachaad White◦ provisional | TB | RB | 144 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.17 – +0.01 |
| 73 | Keaton Mitchell◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 15 | -0.35 | -0.08 | -0.20 – +0.04 |
| 74 | Miles Sanders◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 55 | -0.16 | -0.08 | -0.19 – +0.03 |
| 75 | Jaylen Warren◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 120 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.18 – +0.01 |
| 76 | Tony Pollard | TEN | RB | 261 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.16 – -0.01 |
| 77 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | RB | 192 | -0.11 | -0.08 | -0.17 – -0.00 |
| 78 | Kimani Vidal◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 43 | -0.20 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.03 |
| 79 | Blake Corum◦ provisional | LA | RB | 58 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.02 |
| 80 | Kenneth Gainwell◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 75 | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.19 – +0.02 |
| 81 | Cordarrelle Patterson◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 32 | -0.25 | -0.09 | -0.21 – +0.03 |
| 82 | Gus Edwards◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 102 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.19 – +0.01 |
| 83 | Jamaal Williams◦ provisional | NO | RB | 48 | -0.20 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.02 |
| 84 | Ty Chandler◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 56 | -0.19 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.02 |
| 85 | Will Shipley◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 30 | -0.28 | -0.09 | -0.21 – +0.02 |
| 86 | Dare Ogunbowale◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 30 | -0.28 | -0.09 | -0.21 – +0.02 |
| 87 | Isiah Pacheco◦ provisional | KC | RB | 83 | -0.16 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.01 |
| 88 | Trey Sermon◦ provisional | IND | RB | 56 | -0.20 | -0.09 | -0.20 – +0.01 |
| 89 | Carson Steele◦ provisional | KC | RB | 56 | -0.21 | -0.10 | -0.21 – +0.01 |
| 90 | Cam Akers◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 104 | -0.18 | -0.11 | -0.20 – -0.01 |
| 91 | Ezekiel Elliott◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 74 | -0.22 | -0.11 | -0.21 – -0.00 |
| 92 | Javonte Williams◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 139 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.20 – -0.02 |
| 93 | Nick Chubb◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 102 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.21 – -0.02 |
| 94 | Travis Etienne | JAX | RB | 150 | -0.18 | -0.12 | -0.21 – -0.03 |
| 95 | D'Andre Swift | CHI | RB | 253 | -0.15 | -0.12 | -0.20 – -0.04 |
| 96 | Zack Moss◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 74 | -0.27 | -0.13 | -0.23 – -0.02 |
| 97 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 207 | -0.18 | -0.13 | -0.21 – -0.05 |
| 98 | Jaylen Wright◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 68 | -0.30 | -0.13 | -0.24 – -0.03 |
| 99 | Alexander Mattison◦ provisional | LV | RB | 134 | -0.23 | -0.14 | -0.23 – -0.05 |
| 100 | D'Onta Foreman◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 71 | -0.34 | -0.15 | -0.25 – -0.04 |
| 101 | Raheem Mostert◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 85 | -0.36 | -0.17 | -0.27 – -0.06 |
| 102 | Zamir White◦ provisional | LV | RB | 65 | -0.56 | -0.21 | -0.32 – -0.10 |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).