NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Completion % · 2024
Completions per pass attempt. Depth-of-target confound: a checkdown offense completes more. Pair with CPOE.
- Beats raw by
- 15.6%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 5.2% → 4.4%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.42
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 173
- attempts to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Completion % · 2024 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | attempts | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 571 | 68.3% | 66.4% | 63.5% – 69.2% |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 423 | 68.8% | 66.3% | 63.0% – 69.4% |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 613 | 66.4% | 65.0% | 62.2% – 67.8% |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 702 | 65.5% | 64.4% | 61.8% – 67.1% |
| 5 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 571 | 65.1% | 64.0% | 61.1% – 66.8% |
| 6 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 631 | 64.5% | 63.5% | 60.7% – 66.3% |
| 7 | Derek Carr | NO | QB | 290 | 65.2% | 63.2% | 59.5% – 66.9% |
| 8 | Bo Nix | DEN | QB | 592 | 63.5% | 62.7% | 59.8% – 65.6% |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 619 | 63.3% | 62.6% | 59.8% – 65.4% |
| 10 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 499 | 63.3% | 62.5% | 59.4% – 65.5% |
| 11 | Marcus Mariota◦ provisional | WAS | QB | 48 | 70.8% | 62.4% | 57.0% – 67.7% |
| 12 | Joe Milton III◦ provisional | NE | QB | 29 | 75.9% | 62.3% | 56.6% – 67.8% |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | ATL | QB | 482 | 62.9% | 62.1% | 59.0% – 65.2% |
| 14 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 530 | 62.5% | 61.9% | 58.8% – 64.8% |
| 15 | Mitchell Trubisky◦ provisional | BUF | QB | 26 | 73.1% | 61.7% | 56.0% – 67.3% |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 547 | 62.2% | 61.7% | 58.7% – 64.6% |
| 17 | Andy Dalton◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 168 | 63.1% | 61.6% | 57.2% – 65.8% |
| 18 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 400 | 62.0% | 61.4% | 58.0% – 64.7% |
| 19 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 498 | 61.7% | 61.2% | 58.1% – 64.3% |
| 20 | Joshua Dobbs◦ provisional | SF | QB | 49 | 65.3% | 61.2% | 55.8% – 66.5% |
| 21 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 487 | 61.6% | 61.2% | 58.1% – 64.3% |
| 22 | Tyrod Taylor◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 25 | 68.0% | 61.1% | 55.3% – 66.7% |
| 23 | Malik Willis◦ provisional | GB | QB | 63 | 63.5% | 61.0% | 55.7% – 66.1% |
| 24 | Tanner McKee◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 47 | 63.8% | 60.9% | 55.4% – 66.2% |
| 25 | Mac Jones | JAX | QB | 279 | 61.3% | 60.8% | 57.0% – 64.6% |
| 26 | Sam Darnold | MIN | QB | 594 | 60.8% | 60.6% | 57.7% – 63.5% |
| 27 | Mason Rudolph | TEN | QB | 240 | 60.8% | 60.5% | 56.5% – 64.4% |
| 28 | Tommy DeVito◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 50 | 62.0% | 60.5% | 55.1% – 65.8% |
| 29 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 442 | 60.6% | 60.5% | 57.2% – 63.7% |
| 30 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 548 | 60.6% | 60.5% | 57.4% – 63.4% |
| 31 | Joe Flacco | IND | QB | 267 | 60.7% | 60.4% | 56.6% – 64.2% |
| 32 | Gardner Minshew | LV | QB | 336 | 60.4% | 60.3% | 56.7% – 63.8% |
| 33 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | QB | 255 | 60.4% | 60.3% | 56.3% – 64.1% |
| 34 | Jimmy Garoppolo◦ provisional | LA | QB | 45 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% – 65.4% |
| 35 | Drake Maye | NE | QB | 375 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% – 63.4% |
| 36 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 309 | 59.9% | 59.9% | 56.2% – 63.6% |
| 37 | Justin Fields | PIT | QB | 178 | 59.6% | 59.8% | 55.5% – 64.1% |
| 38 | Trey Lance◦ provisional | DAL | QB | 45 | 55.6% | 59.1% | 53.6% – 64.5% |
| 39 | Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | QB | 627 | 58.7% | 59.0% | 56.1% – 61.8% |
| 40 | Brandon Allen◦ provisional | SF | QB | 32 | 53.1% | 59.0% | 53.3% – 64.5% |
| 41 | Skylar Thompson◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 39 | 53.8% | 58.9% | 53.3% – 64.4% |
| 42 | Kenny Pickett◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 46 | 54.4% | 58.9% | 53.3% – 64.3% |
| 43 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | MIA | QB | 150 | 57.3% | 58.8% | 54.3% – 63.2% |
| 44 | Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 322 | 58.1% | 58.8% | 55.1% – 62.4% |
| 45 | Davis Mills◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 38 | 52.6% | 58.7% | 53.1% – 64.2% |
| 46 | Russell Wilson | PIT | QB | 370 | 57.8% | 58.5% | 55.0% – 62.0% |
| 47 | Bailey Zappe◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 32 | 50.0% | 58.5% | 52.8% – 64.1% |
| 48 | Michael Penix Jr.◦ provisional | ATL | QB | 109 | 56.0% | 58.5% | 53.6% – 63.2% |
| 49 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 375 | 57.6% | 58.4% | 54.9% – 61.8% |
| 50 | Tim Boyle◦ provisional | NYG | QB | 52 | 51.9% | 58.2% | 52.7% – 63.5% |
| 51 | Desmond Ridder◦ provisional | LV | QB | 95 | 54.7% | 58.2% | 53.2% – 63.1% |
| 52 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 584 | 57.5% | 58.1% | 55.1% – 61.0% |
| 53 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 306 | 56.2% | 57.6% | 53.9% – 61.3% |
| 54 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 414 | 56.5% | 57.6% | 54.2% – 60.9% |
| 55 | Drew Lock | NYG | QB | 194 | 55.1% | 57.5% | 53.2% – 61.7% |
| 56 | Jameis Winston | CLE | QB | 327 | 55.4% | 57.0% | 53.3% – 60.6% |
| 57 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 250 | 54.8% | 57.0% | 53.0% – 60.9% |
| 58 | Will Levis | TEN | QB | 344 | 55.2% | 56.8% | 53.3% – 60.4% |
| 59 | Jacoby Brissett | NE | QB | 180 | 52.8% | 56.3% | 52.0% – 60.7% |
| 60 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 640 | 54.8% | 56.0% | 53.1% – 58.8% |
| 61 | Jake Haener◦ provisional | NO | QB | 45 | 40.0% | 55.9% | 50.4% – 61.4% |
| 62 | Spencer Rattler | NO | QB | 251 | 51.8% | 55.2% | 51.2% – 59.1% |
| 63 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 126 | 48.4% | 55.1% | 50.4% – 59.9% |
| 64 | Anthony Richardson | IND | QB | 279 | 45.2% | 50.9% | 47.0% – 54.7% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).