NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Dropback success rate · 2023
Share of dropbacks (incl. sacks & scrambles) with positive EPA.
- Beats raw by
- 15.6%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 5.5% → 4.6%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.47
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 147
- dropbacks to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Dropback success rate · 2023 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | dropbacks | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 469 | 54.2% | 51.5% | 48.2% – 54.9% |
| 2 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | 589 | 49.9% | 48.6% | 45.6% – 51.6% |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 605 | 49.6% | 48.3% | 45.3% – 51.3% |
| 4 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | 631 | 49.5% | 48.3% | 45.3% – 51.2% |
| 5 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 636 | 49.4% | 48.2% | 45.3% – 51.1% |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 494 | 48.2% | 47.0% | 43.8% – 50.3% |
| 7 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | 528 | 47.7% | 46.7% | 43.6% – 49.9% |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 388 | 46.9% | 45.9% | 42.4% – 49.4% |
| 9 | Jordan Love | GB | QB | 609 | 46.5% | 45.8% | 42.9% – 48.8% |
| 10 | Carson Wentz◦ provisional | LA | QB | 27 | 59.3% | 45.7% | 39.5% – 51.9% |
| 11 | Jake Browning | CIN | QB | 268 | 47.0% | 45.7% | 41.7% – 49.7% |
| 12 | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | QB | 183 | 47.5% | 45.6% | 41.1% – 50.1% |
| 13 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 622 | 46.1% | 45.6% | 42.6% – 48.5% |
| 14 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | QB | 535 | 46.0% | 45.4% | 42.3% – 48.5% |
| 15 | Matthew Stafford | LA | QB | 551 | 45.9% | 45.3% | 42.3% – 48.4% |
| 16 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB | 602 | 45.9% | 45.3% | 42.3% – 48.3% |
| 17 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | 149 | 47.0% | 45.1% | 40.4% – 49.9% |
| 18 | Desmond Ridder | ATL | QB | 420 | 45.7% | 45.1% | 41.6% – 48.5% |
| 19 | Derek Carr | NO | QB | 581 | 45.4% | 45.0% | 42.0% – 48.0% |
| 20 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 575 | 45.2% | 44.8% | 41.8% – 47.9% |
| 21 | Marcus Mariota◦ provisional | PHI | QB | 26 | 53.8% | 44.8% | 38.6% – 51.0% |
| 22 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | 326 | 45.4% | 44.7% | 41.0% – 48.5% |
| 23 | Mason Rudolph◦ provisional | PIT | QB | 80 | 47.5% | 44.7% | 39.3% – 50.2% |
| 24 | Sam Darnold◦ provisional | SF | QB | 51 | 49.0% | 44.7% | 38.9% – 50.5% |
| 25 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 486 | 44.9% | 44.5% | 41.2% – 47.7% |
| 26 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 610 | 44.4% | 44.2% | 41.2% – 47.2% |
| 27 | Cooper Rush◦ provisional | DAL | QB | 25 | 48.0% | 43.9% | 37.7% – 50.1% |
| 28 | Jarrett Stidham◦ provisional | DEN | QB | 73 | 45.2% | 43.9% | 38.4% – 49.4% |
| 29 | C.J. Beathard◦ provisional | JAX | QB | 60 | 45.0% | 43.7% | 38.1% – 49.4% |
| 30 | Nick Mullens | MIN | QB | 159 | 44.0% | 43.6% | 39.0% – 48.3% |
| 31 | Tyrod Taylor | NYG | QB | 192 | 43.8% | 43.5% | 39.1% – 48.0% |
| 32 | Mitchell Trubisky◦ provisional | PIT | QB | 114 | 43.9% | 43.5% | 38.5% – 48.5% |
| 33 | Brian Hoyer◦ provisional | LV | QB | 43 | 44.2% | 43.4% | 37.6% – 49.4% |
| 34 | Joe Flacco | CLE | QB | 213 | 42.7% | 42.9% | 38.7% – 47.2% |
| 35 | Tyler Huntley◦ provisional | BAL | QB | 41 | 41.5% | 42.8% | 36.9% – 48.8% |
| 36 | Andy Dalton◦ provisional | CAR | QB | 61 | 41.0% | 42.5% | 37.0% – 48.2% |
| 37 | Gardner Minshew | IND | QB | 527 | 42.3% | 42.5% | 39.4% – 45.6% |
| 38 | Mac Jones | NE | QB | 368 | 42.1% | 42.4% | 38.9% – 46.0% |
| 39 | Taylor Heinicke◦ provisional | ATL | QB | 142 | 41.5% | 42.4% | 37.6% – 47.2% |
| 40 | Anthony Richardson◦ provisional | IND | QB | 93 | 40.9% | 42.3% | 37.1% – 47.6% |
| 41 | Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 491 | 42.0% | 42.2% | 39.0% – 45.5% |
| 42 | Aidan O'Connell | LV | QB | 367 | 41.7% | 42.1% | 38.6% – 45.7% |
| 43 | Case Keenum◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 59 | 37.3% | 41.5% | 35.9% – 47.2% |
| 44 | Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 290 | 40.3% | 41.3% | 37.5% – 45.2% |
| 45 | Sam Howell | WAS | QB | 679 | 40.8% | 41.2% | 38.4% – 44.0% |
| 46 | Jeff Driskel◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 29 | 31.0% | 41.2% | 35.2% – 47.3% |
| 47 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | 187 | 39.6% | 41.2% | 36.8% – 45.6% |
| 48 | Easton Stick | LAC | QB | 187 | 39.6% | 41.2% | 36.8% – 45.6% |
| 49 | Will Levis | TEN | QB | 282 | 40.1% | 41.1% | 37.3% – 45.1% |
| 50 | Davis Mills◦ provisional | HOU | QB | 42 | 33.3% | 41.0% | 35.2% – 46.9% |
| 51 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | QB | 260 | 39.6% | 40.9% | 36.9% – 44.9% |
| 52 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | 347 | 39.8% | 40.8% | 37.2% – 44.5% |
| 53 | Blaine Gabbert◦ provisional | KC | QB | 36 | 30.6% | 40.7% | 34.8% – 46.7% |
| 54 | Joshua Dobbs | MIN | QB | 450 | 39.3% | 40.3% | 37.0% – 43.6% |
| 55 | Jameis Winston◦ provisional | NO | QB | 49 | 30.6% | 40.1% | 34.4% – 45.9% |
| 56 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 117 | 35.0% | 39.6% | 34.7% – 44.6% |
| 57 | Daniel Jones | NYG | QB | 191 | 36.6% | 39.5% | 35.2% – 43.9% |
| 58 | Drew Lock◦ provisional | SEA | QB | 83 | 32.5% | 39.4% | 34.1% – 44.7% |
| 59 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | 416 | 37.7% | 39.2% | 35.8% – 42.6% |
| 60 | Brett Rypien◦ provisional | LA | QB | 40 | 22.5% | 38.8% | 33.0% – 44.7% |
| 61 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | QB | 413 | 37.0% | 38.7% | 35.3% – 42.1% |
| 62 | Clayton Tune◦ provisional | ARI | QB | 28 | 14.3% | 38.6% | 32.6% – 44.7% |
| 63 | PJ Walker◦ provisional | CLE | QB | 121 | 32.2% | 38.3% | 33.4% – 43.2% |
| 64 | Trevor Siemian | NYJ | QB | 161 | 33.5% | 38.1% | 33.7% – 42.7% |
| 65 | Tim Boyle◦ provisional | NYJ | QB | 86 | 26.7% | 37.1% | 32.0% – 42.4% |
| 66 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 589 | 35.3% | 36.9% | 34.0% – 39.8% |
| 67 | Tommy DeVito | NYG | QB | 215 | 32.6% | 36.9% | 32.8% – 41.1% |
| 68 | Bailey Zappe | NE | QB | 236 | 32.6% | 36.7% | 32.7% – 40.8% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).