NFL · Empirical Bayes
True-Talent Leaderboards
A raw single-season rate is a noisy guess at a player’s real ability, and the noise is worst for the smallest samples — so a naïve leaderboard is topped by whoever got lucky in the fewest tries. This one shrinks every rate toward its position-group prior by how much the sample can be trusted, and shows a 90% credible interval instead of a point. Toggle raw vs. shrunk to watch the flukes fall back to the pack.
Rush success rate · 2016
Share of carries with positive EPA. Blocking & scheme are large, un-controlled inputs.
- Beats raw by
- 19.4%
- lower out-of-sample error
- RMSE raw → shrunk
- 9.1% → 7.3%
- odd vs. even weeks
- Split-half reliability
- 0.20
- how repeatable the raw stat is
- Stabilizes at
- 146
- carrys to trust the number
Each row is a player: the solid dot is the shrunk estimate, the hollow dot the raw rate, joined by the red pull of regression; the grey bar is the 90% credible interval. A hollow shrunk dot means the sample is below the stabilization line — the number is mostly the position prior. Switch to Raw rank and watch the small-sample names climb.
Rush success rate · 2016 · full board
| # | Player | Team | Pos | carrys | Raw | Shrunk | 90% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Gillislee◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 101 | 57.4% | 46.1% | 40.9% – 51.3% |
| 2 | Devonta Freeman | ATL | RB | 227 | 46.3% | 43.1% | 38.9% – 47.3% |
| 3 | Le'Veon Bell | PIT | RB | 261 | 45.6% | 42.9% | 38.9% – 47.0% |
| 4 | Rex Burkhead◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 74 | 51.3% | 42.6% | 37.2% – 48.1% |
| 5 | Robert Turbin◦ provisional | IND | RB | 47 | 55.3% | 42.4% | 36.6% – 48.2% |
| 6 | Bilal Powell◦ provisional | NYJ | RB | 131 | 46.6% | 42.1% | 37.3% – 47.0% |
| 7 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | 322 | 43.8% | 42.0% | 38.3% – 45.8% |
| 8 | LeSean McCoy | BUF | RB | 235 | 44.3% | 41.9% | 37.8% – 46.1% |
| 9 | Ryan Mathews | PHI | RB | 157 | 45.2% | 41.8% | 37.2% – 46.5% |
| 10 | Aaron Ripkowski◦ provisional | GB | RB | 34 | 55.9% | 41.5% | 35.5% – 47.6% |
| 11 | John Kuhn◦ provisional | NO | RB | 18 | 66.7% | 41.3% | 35.1% – 47.7% |
| 12 | David Johnson | ARI | RB | 293 | 42.7% | 41.2% | 37.3% – 45.1% |
| 13 | Kenneth Dixon◦ provisional | BAL | RB | 88 | 45.5% | 40.9% | 35.7% – 46.2% |
| 14 | Mark Ingram | NO | RB | 208 | 42.8% | 40.9% | 36.6% – 45.2% |
| 15 | Dion Lewis◦ provisional | NE | RB | 64 | 46.9% | 40.8% | 35.3% – 46.5% |
| 16 | Chris Thompson◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 69 | 46.4% | 40.8% | 35.4% – 46.4% |
| 17 | Darren Sproles◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 94 | 44.7% | 40.7% | 35.6% – 46.0% |
| 18 | DeMarco Murray | TEN | RB | 293 | 42.0% | 40.7% | 36.9% – 44.6% |
| 19 | Andre Williams◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 18 | 61.1% | 40.7% | 34.5% – 47.1% |
| 20 | Jalen Richard◦ provisional | LV | RB | 83 | 44.6% | 40.5% | 35.2% – 45.9% |
| 21 | Alfred Morris◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 69 | 43.5% | 39.9% | 34.4% – 45.4% |
| 22 | Jay Ajayi | MIA | RB | 260 | 40.8% | 39.8% | 35.9% – 43.9% |
| 23 | DeAndre Washington◦ provisional | LV | RB | 87 | 42.5% | 39.8% | 34.6% – 45.1% |
| 24 | Spencer Ware | KC | RB | 214 | 40.6% | 39.6% | 35.4% – 43.9% |
| 25 | Jacquizz Rodgers◦ provisional | TB | RB | 129 | 41.1% | 39.6% | 34.8% – 44.4% |
| 26 | Matt Jones◦ provisional | WAS | RB | 99 | 41.4% | 39.5% | 34.4% – 44.7% |
| 27 | Kerwynn Williams◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 18 | 50.0% | 39.5% | 33.3% – 45.8% |
| 28 | Ameer Abdullah◦ provisional | DET | RB | 18 | 50.0% | 39.5% | 33.3% – 45.8% |
| 29 | Jordan Howard | CHI | RB | 252 | 40.1% | 39.4% | 35.4% – 43.4% |
| 30 | Derrick Henry◦ provisional | TEN | RB | 110 | 40.9% | 39.4% | 34.4% – 44.4% |
| 31 | Danny Woodhead◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 19 | 47.4% | 39.2% | 33.1% – 45.6% |
| 32 | Theo Riddick◦ provisional | DET | RB | 92 | 40.2% | 39.0% | 33.8% – 44.2% |
| 33 | Kenyan Drake◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 33 | 42.4% | 39.0% | 33.1% – 45.0% |
| 34 | Latavius Murray | LV | RB | 195 | 39.5% | 38.9% | 34.6% – 43.3% |
| 35 | Wendell Smallwood◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 77 | 40.3% | 38.9% | 33.6% – 44.3% |
| 36 | Jeremy Langford◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 62 | 40.3% | 38.8% | 33.3% – 44.4% |
| 37 | Fozzy Whittaker◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 57 | 40.4% | 38.8% | 33.2% – 44.5% |
| 38 | James White◦ provisional | NE | RB | 39 | 41.0% | 38.8% | 33.0% – 44.7% |
| 39 | Benny Cunningham◦ provisional | LA | RB | 21 | 42.9% | 38.8% | 32.7% – 45.0% |
| 40 | Darren McFadden◦ provisional | DAL | RB | 24 | 41.7% | 38.7% | 32.6% – 44.9% |
| 41 | Carlos Hyde | SF | RB | 218 | 39.0% | 38.7% | 34.5% – 42.9% |
| 42 | Tim Hightower◦ provisional | NO | RB | 133 | 39.1% | 38.6% | 33.9% – 43.5% |
| 43 | Kenjon Barner◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 27 | 40.7% | 38.6% | 32.6% – 44.7% |
| 44 | Jonathan Williams◦ provisional | BUF | RB | 27 | 40.7% | 38.6% | 32.6% – 44.7% |
| 45 | Bobby Rainey◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 17 | 41.2% | 38.5% | 32.3% – 44.8% |
| 46 | C.J. Prosise◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 30 | 40.0% | 38.5% | 32.6% – 44.6% |
| 47 | Shane Vereen◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 33 | 39.4% | 38.4% | 32.5% – 44.5% |
| 48 | Akeem Hunt◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 20 | 40.0% | 38.4% | 32.3% – 44.7% |
| 49 | Zach Zenner◦ provisional | DET | RB | 88 | 38.6% | 38.4% | 33.2% – 43.6% |
| 50 | Paul Perkins◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 112 | 38.4% | 38.3% | 33.4% – 43.3% |
| 51 | Tevin Coleman◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 118 | 38.1% | 38.2% | 33.3% – 43.1% |
| 52 | Kapri Bibbs◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 29 | 37.9% | 38.1% | 32.2% – 44.2% |
| 53 | Eddie Lacy◦ provisional | GB | RB | 71 | 38.0% | 38.1% | 32.8% – 43.6% |
| 54 | Matt Asiata◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 121 | 38.0% | 38.1% | 33.3% – 43.0% |
| 55 | Alfred Blue◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 100 | 38.0% | 38.1% | 33.1% – 43.3% |
| 56 | DeAngelo Williams◦ provisional | PIT | RB | 98 | 37.8% | 38.0% | 33.0% – 43.2% |
| 57 | Christine Michael | GB | RB | 148 | 37.8% | 38.0% | 33.4% – 42.7% |
| 58 | Jamize Olawale◦ provisional | LV | RB | 17 | 35.3% | 37.9% | 31.7% – 44.2% |
| 59 | Giovani Bernard◦ provisional | CIN | RB | 91 | 37.4% | 37.9% | 32.8% – 43.1% |
| 60 | Duke Johnson◦ provisional | CLE | RB | 73 | 37.0% | 37.8% | 32.5% – 43.2% |
| 61 | Andre Ellington◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 34 | 35.3% | 37.6% | 31.8% – 43.6% |
| 62 | Ka'Deem Carey◦ provisional | CHI | RB | 32 | 34.4% | 37.5% | 31.6% – 43.5% |
| 63 | Corey Grant◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 32 | 34.4% | 37.5% | 31.6% – 43.5% |
| 64 | Byron Marshall◦ provisional | PHI | RB | 19 | 31.6% | 37.4% | 31.3% – 43.7% |
| 65 | C.J. Anderson◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 110 | 36.4% | 37.4% | 32.5% – 42.4% |
| 66 | Orleans Darkwa◦ provisional | NYG | RB | 30 | 33.3% | 37.4% | 31.4% – 43.4% |
| 67 | Frank Gore | IND | RB | 263 | 36.9% | 37.4% | 33.5% – 41.3% |
| 68 | Chris Johnson◦ provisional | ARI | RB | 25 | 32.0% | 37.3% | 31.3% – 43.4% |
| 69 | Kenneth Farrow◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 60 | 35.0% | 37.3% | 31.8% – 42.9% |
| 70 | Alex Collins◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 31 | 32.3% | 37.1% | 31.3% – 43.2% |
| 71 | DuJuan Harris◦ provisional | SF | RB | 38 | 31.6% | 36.8% | 31.1% – 42.7% |
| 72 | Mike Davis◦ provisional | SF | RB | 19 | 26.3% | 36.8% | 30.8% – 43.1% |
| 73 | Denard Robinson◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 41 | 31.7% | 36.8% | 31.1% – 42.6% |
| 74 | Cameron Artis-Payne◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 36 | 30.6% | 36.7% | 30.9% – 42.6% |
| 75 | Terron Ward◦ provisional | ATL | RB | 31 | 29.0% | 36.6% | 30.7% – 42.6% |
| 76 | Isaiah Crowell | CLE | RB | 198 | 35.4% | 36.5% | 32.3% – 40.9% |
| 77 | Jonathan Grimes◦ provisional | HOU | RB | 23 | 26.1% | 36.5% | 30.6% – 42.7% |
| 78 | Melvin Gordon | LAC | RB | 254 | 35.4% | 36.4% | 32.5% – 40.4% |
| 79 | Malcolm Brown◦ provisional | LA | RB | 18 | 22.2% | 36.4% | 30.4% – 42.7% |
| 80 | Chris Ivory◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 117 | 34.2% | 36.4% | 31.6% – 41.3% |
| 81 | Jeremy Hill | CIN | RB | 222 | 35.1% | 36.3% | 32.3% – 40.5% |
| 82 | Ronnie Hillman◦ provisional | LAC | RB | 41 | 29.3% | 36.2% | 30.5% – 42.1% |
| 83 | Rob Kelley | WAS | RB | 168 | 34.5% | 36.2% | 31.8% – 40.7% |
| 84 | Peyton Barber◦ provisional | TB | RB | 55 | 30.9% | 36.2% | 30.7% – 41.8% |
| 85 | Devontae Booker | DEN | RB | 174 | 34.5% | 36.2% | 31.8% – 40.6% |
| 86 | Arian Foster◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 22 | 22.7% | 36.2% | 30.2% – 42.3% |
| 87 | Doug Martin◦ provisional | TB | RB | 144 | 34.0% | 36.1% | 31.5% – 40.8% |
| 88 | Lamar Miller | HOU | RB | 268 | 34.7% | 35.9% | 32.1% – 39.8% |
| 89 | Jonathan Stewart | CAR | RB | 218 | 34.4% | 35.9% | 31.8% – 40.1% |
| 90 | LeGarrette Blount | NE | RB | 299 | 34.8% | 35.9% | 32.2% – 39.7% |
| 91 | Damien Williams◦ provisional | MIA | RB | 35 | 25.7% | 35.8% | 30.0% – 41.7% |
| 92 | Matt Forte | NYJ | RB | 218 | 33.5% | 35.4% | 31.3% – 39.5% |
| 93 | Shaun Draughn◦ provisional | SF | RB | 74 | 29.7% | 35.3% | 30.1% – 40.7% |
| 94 | Josh Ferguson◦ provisional | IND | RB | 15 | 6.7% | 35.3% | 29.2% – 41.5% |
| 95 | Knile Davis◦ provisional | KC | RB | 18 | 11.1% | 35.2% | 29.2% – 41.4% |
| 96 | T.J. Yeldon◦ provisional | JAX | RB | 130 | 31.5% | 35.0% | 30.4% – 39.8% |
| 97 | Charles Sims◦ provisional | TB | RB | 51 | 25.5% | 34.9% | 29.4% – 40.6% |
| 98 | Todd Gurley | LA | RB | 278 | 33.1% | 34.8% | 31.1% – 38.7% |
| 99 | Terrance West | BAL | RB | 193 | 32.1% | 34.7% | 30.5% – 39.0% |
| 100 | Mike Tolbert◦ provisional | CAR | RB | 35 | 20.0% | 34.7% | 29.0% – 40.6% |
| 101 | Charcandrick West◦ provisional | KC | RB | 88 | 28.4% | 34.5% | 29.5% – 39.7% |
| 102 | Adrian Peterson◦ provisional | MIN | RB | 37 | 18.9% | 34.3% | 28.6% – 40.1% |
| 103 | James Starks◦ provisional | GB | RB | 64 | 25.0% | 34.2% | 28.9% – 39.6% |
| 104 | Thomas Rawls◦ provisional | SEA | RB | 109 | 28.4% | 34.0% | 29.2% – 39.0% |
| 105 | Rashad Jennings | NYG | RB | 180 | 30.6% | 34.0% | 29.7% – 38.3% |
| 106 | Dwayne Washington◦ provisional | DET | RB | 90 | 26.7% | 33.8% | 28.8% – 38.9% |
| 107 | Jerick McKinnon | MIN | RB | 161 | 28.6% | 33.1% | 28.8% – 37.6% |
| 108 | Justin Forsett◦ provisional | DEN | RB | 87 | 24.1% | 32.9% | 28.0% – 38.1% |
How the shrinkage works
Two estimators
Rate stats (completion %, success rate, catch rate) use a beta-binomial model: a Beta(α, β) prior fit by marginal likelihood over each position group, then a Beta posterior per player. Per-play averages (EPA, CPOE, yards) use a normal-normal model with DerSimonian–Laird between-player variance. Both pull each player toward their group by exactly how thin their sample is.
Does it help? & the fine print
The trust panel’s numbers come from a leakage-free odd/even-week holdout: fit on odd weeks, predict even-week raw. Shrinkage lowers out-of-sample error for every stat. Priors are fit per season and per position (WR and TE separately), so a TE’s baseline isn’t a skill. Regular season only, 2016–2025. Rushing and receiving efficiency are heavily scheme-driven — read the wide bands as the honesty they are.
Source: nflverse play-by-play. Counted and computed deterministically — never modeled by a language model. Built by build_nfl_leaderboards.py (byte-reproducible).